Expected Returns

As I expected from an oversold market, there was a sharp rally today, especially in gold and silver shares. I believe most sell-offs should be bought, especially because it is easier to buy and lighten up at perceived tops than to go short. This continues to be my strategy in this market environment. Gold shares … Continue reading

The current environment most resembles that of late 2008, but with one key difference: our leaders are now somewhat aware of the scale of this crisis and they are prepared to support markets. Heck even the Swiss are devaluing, which means a retest of new lows in stocks is unlikely in most markets. Competitive … Continue reading

After the panic of a couple of days ago, gold has recovered nicely. As I was telling you, waterfall moves are the time to buy in a bull market. Spike moves are the time to sell, even in a bull market. I think the odds favor a correction before $2000-$2100, but this was a nice … Continue reading

 The past few weeks have been interesting to say the least. Debt downgrades were met by more promises of accommodative Fed policy, as expected. Stocks are plunging and confidence around the world is collapsing. Gold is testing $1800 and people are running for cover. How will all of this be resolved? Although the world appears … Continue reading

I think it’s nearing the time when everyone is going to be confused by markets. I’ve spoken about volatility rising, and this is what we’ve seen recently. People are turning bearish on the economy and this is leading to what I believe are false assumptions. I’m seeing the “90% stock market collapse” crowd come out … Continue reading

It’s hard for Americans to understand that gold is an asset that reflects global confidence, not just confidence in America. So arguments against gold that are focused just on America are not entirely valid to me. Even if we solved our debt problems, which is unlikely, there still would be huge sovereign debt crises in … Continue reading

The volatility in silver is something that a lot of people can’t handle. When I first invested in silver, I was focused on hour-to-hour and day-to-day movements.  As such, the volatility in silver was the cause of a ton of stress, even if I traded the moves well. Now, with a little more experience, I am … Continue reading

Yesterday, silver experienced its biggest one-day dollar drop in 3 decades. In recent weeks, I’ve been warning that the downside risks in silver were huge, that silver rose too far, too fast, and that there was a frenzy developing in silver. I publicly stated I was lightening up above $46 dollars and that a minimum … Continue reading

Gold is currently brushing aside seemingly bearish gold news revolving around Bin Laden’s death and moving higher. This rally in gold has a lot more to do with the debt crisis than terrorism. Commentators predicting gold’s demise based on recent events are just proving how clueless they are. Since silver’s huge run-up, gold has looked a … Continue reading

With silver surpassing $46 dollars this morning, I believe it is time to take a step back and reevaluate this remarkable run. About a week ago, I wrote that silver’s rise has come too far and too fast. I stated that I would lean bearish if silver made a spike move to new highs. … Continue reading