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	<title>The Daily Gold &#187; Jason Burack</title>
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		<title>The Forgotten, “Barbarous Relic” is No Longer Forgotten</title>
		<link>http://thedailygold.com/commentaries/the-forgotten-%e2%80%9cbarbarous-relic%e2%80%9d-is-no-longer-forgotten/?p=4441/</link>
		<comments>http://thedailygold.com/commentaries/the-forgotten-%e2%80%9cbarbarous-relic%e2%80%9d-is-no-longer-forgotten/?p=4441/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Sep 2010 23:05:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason Burack</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Burack]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thedailygold.com/?p=4441</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For those of you unfamiliar with the popular description John Maynard Keynes gave to this once popular commodity, I am talking about Gold; the forgotten and also hated metal. At least this is the case here in the Western world, where Gold is considered by most Americans at the moment nothing more than something nice [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For those of you unfamiliar with the popular description John Maynard Keynes gave to this once popular commodity, I am talking about Gold; the forgotten and also hated metal.</p>
<p>At least this is the case here in the Western world, where Gold is considered by most Americans at the moment nothing more than something nice to make jewelry out of.</p>
<p>Most Americans have no clue what the Gold price currently is (it’s not far away from $1300/oz! and there is a hilarious video about this on You Tube where people could have won a free 1oz Gold coin if they correctly guessed the Gold price on a California beach), or that since the Tech bubble burst in 2000, Gold has rocketed up from around $250/oz to be the best investment of the last decade.</p>
<p>Yet, despite this increase in price, Gold is still not even at its 1980 inflation adjusted high yet (Gold is only at a nominal high. It will have to go to over $2300/oz for it to be above its 1980 inflation adjusted high of $800/oz  in today’s dollars).</p>
<p>The idea that physical Gold and Gold stocks are prudent insurance and good investments against financial calamity and panics is still preposterous to many on Main St, USA including most financial advisors.</p>
<p>Even most Wall St people dislike Gold and don’t know what to classify it as.</p>
<p>If you don’t believe me, I dare you to watch CNBC for a few hours a day for about a week straight and you will come to the same conclusion as me: that there is a very large anti-Gold crowd.</p>
<p>A lot of this is because Americans really do not understand the basics of investing, personal finance and money management.</p>
<p>This might be a more modern and forward looking magazine, but I am advocating for Americans to look back to the past, many decades past, and return to the basics of economics, finance and investing.</p>
<p>Before everything became so complicated that people hate it, are bored after 5 minutes of learning, or it gives them a painful migraine.</p>
<p>Generations of past Americans, before the Baby Boomers, were taught the basics and, unfortunately, the generations since have not been taught the same simple and yet effective approach.</p>
<p>That approach starts with a revival of common sense.</p>
<p>First and foremost, Gold is money. Real Money. Not some piece of paper, fiat currency backed by nothing that governments say is money by “fiat” (which is Latin for decree or order).</p>
<p>The problem with fiat money is that governments throughout history have a hard time being responsible and limiting the quantity of it.</p>
<p>Once enough money is printed, money adheres to the laws of supply and demand just like any other commodity, and a flood of money (or helicopter drop in Federal Reserve Chairman “Helicopter” Ben Bernanke’s case) destroys the value of each unit the more that is printed.</p>
<p>The reason I bring this up is because our current money or form of the US Dollar, the Federal Reserve Note, is fiat money or only a currency.</p>
<p>It is not real money because it does not properly store its value or purchasing power.</p>
<p>Purchasing power is defined by me as the value of one’s hard work or labor each day that you earned by working, saving and/or investing and what it will buy you in terms of goods and services now or at a later date in the future when you decide to spend the money on something.</p>
<p>Your purchasing power, if you’ve saved any money from the money you’ve earned, is supposed to be safely stored so one does not work each day for free when they expect a fair day’s wages.</p>
<p>Your purchasing power is then normally “stored” in your checking or savings account at a bank.</p>
<p>A loss in purchasing power means the value of your work was not properly saved by whatever you saved, invested or stored that money in (if you didn’t spend it all!).</p>
<p>Since 1913, the US Dollar has lost greater than 95% of its purchasing power!</p>
<p>Does that sound like a great store of value to you?</p>
<p>Gold has been real money in many countries for many thousands of years.</p>
<p>And, after more paper, fiat currencies have gone to the big currency graveyard in the sky (and most paper fiat currencies are up there and many only make it 40 yrs or so before new versions of a currency need to be issued), Gold will just continue to do what it always does because it’s very dependable and safe; it’s boring.</p>
<p>It’s not sexy and chic like owning stock in Apple or another tech company with the hottest gadget on the market now, but stocks can crash and go to zero. Gold won’t.</p>
<p>But, in this environment, dependable and boring are a good thing as volatility in many paper, fiat currencies and the markets of many asset classes are anything but stable.</p>
<p>The best thing Gold does is it acts as real money and a store of value. Nothing else over thousands of years, besides maybe Silver and Real Estate until its most recent bubble, has preserved its purchasing power and stored its value better than Gold has.</p>
<p>Because of its ability to store value and retain purchasing power of someone’s savings, owning physical Gold coins and bars is the ultimate insurance policy.</p>
<p>Gold stocks, which give one leverage to higher Gold prices and also act as a proxy to higher Gold prices, also have similar properties, unless the Gold company is poorly managed.</p>
<p>This is something that many of us were never taught in schools and some of us, some more than others, are currently learning the hard way as their investments continue to lose value.</p>
<p>Once you own physical metal, and store it yourself or have someone else store it in a safe location, it’s outside the financial system and is safe from a crash.</p>
<p>The value of physical Gold might drop in dollar terms, but it will NEVER go to ZERO!</p>
<p>In just the last 6 months alone, the US Dollar and the Swiss Franc have both lost 13% of their value relative to Gold. That would be a 26% devaluation for both currencies in just one year against Gold if this trend were to continue as the worldwide “Race to Debase” for currencies continues.</p>
<p>Governments all over the world, including our own, want a weaker currency because it allows them to pay off their obligations such as Social Security, employee pensions and other benefits, and interest and principle payments on our national debt to our foreign creditors with cheaper money.</p>
<p>A weaker currency also makes exports from the exporting country a lot cheaper and more competitive in world markets.</p>
<p>Selling lots of exports creates a trade surplus and helps boost your GDP, which is supposed to be based mostly off your country’s total production of goods.</p>
<p>This is why China and Japan are adamant about keeping their currencies relatively weak to the US Dollar.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this is very bad for savers and investors desperate for higher yields on bonds and for higher returns in the form of dividends.</p>
<p>What has been going on for years now in our markets is punishing savers and investors who are trying to do the right thing and not spend all of what they make, pay off all of their bills on time and save up for a rainy day and/or retirement.</p>
<p>Who can blame people for wanting to pay off all of their debts, stop spending and save more of their money now than they have had to in years before?</p>
<p>After what has occurred in world financial markets over the last few years with the subprime crisis, the credit crisis, the real estate bubble and other potential developing asset bubbles and financial panics yet to come that are devastating the US and Western European economies, Wall St &amp; Main St need to rethink modern finance and investing techniques.</p>
<p>As a matter of fact, so do the professors who teach finance and investment management at major universities.</p>
<p>Are the markets really efficient or do they operate mostly on the 2 most basic emotions of human beings, fear and greed, the majority of the time?</p>
<p>Shortcomings were especially exposed in the areas of proper risk management and asset allocation during 2008.</p>
<p>Many longtime professionals dropped the ball and were caught off guard when the housing bubble popped along with the credit crisis that had our entire country “on the brink” of a complete economic collapse.</p>
<p>Yet, there was a small minority of people who were more prepared for what happened and they made out like bandits with exponential profits while everyone else scrambled to keep from drowning in inescapable losses.</p>
<p>Those people used common sense over models and formulas.</p>
<p>Modern asset allocation strategies and modern portfolio theory based only on risk formulas and mathematical models failed.</p>
<p>They failed to account for what author Nicholas “Nassim” Taleb called in his book, the “Black Swan” event.</p>
<p>Taleb uses this analogy to describe the first ever sighting of a Black Swan by scientists when all scientific and historical records assumed all swans to only be white because a Black Swan sighting had never been seen and documented before.</p>
<p>In other words, it is almost impossible for modern financial modeling and risk management with their complicated formulas to properly account for seeing a “Black Swan” when only White Swans have ever been seen before.</p>
<p>Because of the increased intervention in markets, the lack of understanding the absolute basics earlier generations of Americans understood and the lack of common sense many people still have, I think the odds are very high that more Black Swans (asset bubbles popping or exploding like the Tech bubble of 2000 and the credit crisis of 2008) will occur more frequently in the near future.</p>
<p>So how does one account for a “Black Swan” in their investment portfolio?</p>
<p>What is true portfolio insurance? Just how non-correlated are different asset classes like stocks, bonds, commodities, etc and will they really act differently from each other by going up when the other goes down?</p>
<p>After what happened in 2008, I think the answers to these questions need to be discussed at length all over again.</p>
<p>According to economic forecaster Ian Gordon of the LongWave Group, it takes about 2.5-3 generations or about 70 years for people to forget the lessons their past generations had to also learn.</p>
<p>Wall St and Main St both need to relearn lessons from generations past that have long been forgotten or, unfortunately, that I think we have been taught to forget or never learned in the first place.</p>
<p>If my grandfather were still alive today, he’d be ashamed at the financial irresponsibility the America he helped protect during his WWII service has recently shown.</p>
<p>He’d be ashamed that Americans lack enough common sense to save a healthy percentage of their incomes, live below their means, pay off all of their debts and save and invest so they don’t have to work forever to pay off their debts and are able to retire comfortably.</p>
<p>My grandfather also owned quite a bit of Gold as the ultimate insurance policy against financial Armageddon, bad inflation or bad deflation.</p>
<p>Owning some gold is a lesson many of us have forgot or have never been taught in the first place.</p>
<p>We have been taught in modern finance and economic classes that common sense is not king, that we need and can use to protect us complicated economic formulas and mathematical models to predict everything accurately (yeah right!), that we can borrow and spend our way to prosperity at the government, corporate and individual levels and that we don’t have to save and invest to get something we want and that we can have it now on credit and pay for it later.</p>
<p>But, all we really need to be successful in life is to use common sense.</p>
<p>As Americans, except for the last 2-3 yrs, many of us especially in my generation have only grown up during great and prosperous times in our country’s history.</p>
<p>Until recently, my generation had only seen good times.</p>
<p>Past generations of Americans, like the Americans who grew up during the Great Depression of 1929 or the ones who fought for our country in World War II, like my grandfather, learned all of these lessons the hard way and understood very well what it meant to have no debt and to start saving more and to live within your means and save and invest your way through hard work back to prosperity.</p>
<p>Saving and investing is what paved the way for the greatest few decades in American history, when our country became richer than any other country in the world by an order of magnitude when war veterans returned home at the end of WWII.</p>
<p>This is a lesson Americans, for the most part, have completely forgotten.</p>
<p>So why is common sense in personal finance and investing not taught at all really in most modern finance classes??</p>
<p>Why isn’t a Common Sense 101 for personal finance class mandatory at high schools, college and/or business schools?</p>
<p>Why is a proper financial education not offered in schools or anywhere at an affordable price?</p>
<p>Why isn’t a 10%+ asset allocation strategy of physical Gold and some exposure to Gold stocks a requirement in everyone’s investment portfolio as insurance against further financial crises, calamity, chaos, inflation and deflation?</p>
<p>I’d like your thoughts and feedback on this. Please feel free to comment.</p>
<p>Finally, Gold and silver are both still extremely undervalued in my humble opinion at these prices! Especially when we are really only in the eye of the hurricane and have yet to go through perhaps the part of the storm that is much worse than 2008!</p>
<p>Jason Burack is an Investor, Entrepreneur, Financial Historian, Austrian School Economist and Contrarian. He Co-Founded the startup investor education and financial education company Wall St for Main St, LLC to try to help the people of Main St, USA by teaching them the knowledge, skills, research methods and investing and trading ideas of Wall St so they are better prepared to navigate through these difficult financial waters after witnessing the damages caused in 2008. After witnessing the damages first hand, and realizing his lack of a financial education, he set out on a mission, or rather a crusade, so he was properly financially educated and more prepared for whatever else is to come in the future and to help others through these difficult and uncertain times. He has spent the last 2.5 yrs mastering conventional and non-conventional thinking in investing and economics to help himself and his consulting clients achieve great investment returns and ultimately financial freedom. You can reach Jason at his blog at <a href="http://www.jasonburack.com/" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.jasonburack.com/?referer=');">http://www.jasonburack.com</a> . He and his Wall St for Main St Co-Founder, Mo Dawoud, are diligently working on setting up a Wall St for Main St investor education website in the near future that will offer both free content and subscription content for people who want to learn at an affordable price. You can also find Jason’s articles, podcast interviews, video blogs and other related content on the popular investing websites: The Daily Gold, The Financial Tube and The Daily Commodities.</p>
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		<title>Debunking Deflationist Myths &amp; Scare Tactics About Gold</title>
		<link>http://thedailygold.com/featured/3716/?p=3716/</link>
		<comments>http://thedailygold.com/featured/3716/?p=3716/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Jun 2010 21:16:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason Burack</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hyperinflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Turk]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thedailygold.com/?p=3716</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Haven’t you heard? As I type this, the US and other world economies are supposedly in nothing but increasing deflationary pressures that will not be able to be stopped by any government or central banker no matter how much stimulus or money printing they decide on doing! At least that’s what many of the talking [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Haven’t you heard?</p>
<p>As I type this, the US and other  world economies are supposedly in nothing but increasing deflationary  pressures that will not be able to be stopped by any government or  central banker no matter how much stimulus or money printing they decide  on doing!</p>
<p>At least that’s what many of the  talking heads on financial TV are telling us especially within the last  month or so. They have been saying this message for awhile now. Here’s  an interview from Mike “Mish” Shedlock from October 2009 talking about  deflation:</p>
<p>
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</p>
<p><br class="spacer_" /></p>
<p><br class="spacer_" /></p>
<p>And so begins another inflation vs  deflation debate.</p>
<p>Many of you who don’t want to learn  everything there is to know about macroeconomics to understand what is  really going on in the world right now are probably wondering is there  an investment that will do well in inflation and/or deflation so you  don’t have to be an expert economist to protect yourself and make an  investment decision and get on with the rest of your lives?</p>
<p><a href="http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/deepcaster/2010/0617.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/deepcaster/2010/0617.html?referer=');">First off, this is the best explanation summary I have  read recently of what’s happening. </a></p>
<p>John Williams of <a href="http://www.shadowstats.com/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.shadowstats.com/?referer=');">ShadowStats </a>even  agrees (about short term deflationary pressures) as far as M3 goes, but  is M3 even a valid measurement of the money supply and therefore of  monetary inflation? My Austrian Economist friends would disagree with  him here about M3 being a valid indicator of the true total money  supply, but The M3 Money Supply figures John Williams has recreated do  show M3 dropping!  <a href="http://www.jasonburack.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/ShadowStats-M3.jpg" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.jasonburack.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/ShadowStats-M3.jpg?referer=');"><img title="ShadowStats M3" src="http://www.jasonburack.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/ShadowStats-M3-300x187.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="187" /></a></p>
<p>All of this I just mentioned about  deflation will be a moot point if Ben Bernanke and other heads of  central banks, including the IMF and Bank of International Settlements  (BIS) aka the Central Banker’s Bank decide to step on the gas pedal and  add more gasoline to the fire via more stimulus!</p>
<p><a href="http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/6/17_Germanys_Deflation_Policies_Angers_Italy.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/6/17_Germanys_Deflation_Policies_Angers_Italy.html?referer=');">The Italian Keynesians in Italy are even upset with  Germany for its “deflation policies.” </a></p>
<p>Despite declining M3 figures,  ShadowStats’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculations also show inflation  in consumer goods and services as measured by rising prices running at  around a 6% clip.</p>
<p>James Turk, author of the book <a href="http://dollarcollapse.com/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/dollarcollapse.com/?referer=');">Dollar Collapse</a>,  Founder of the precious metals storage company <a href="http://goldmoney.com/index.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/goldmoney.com/index.html?referer=');">GoldMoney</a>,  and a consultant for <a href="http://www.gata.org/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.gata.org/?referer=');">GATA</a> thinks that <a href="http://www.fgmr.com/no-improvement-in-the-hyperinflationary-outlook.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.fgmr.com/no-improvement-in-the-hyperinflationary-outlook.html?referer=');">hyperinflation is still by far the most likely outcome  in his latest analysis.</a></p>
<p>What do these mixed signals mean?  What’s the truth? Can I protect myself from inflation and deflation at  the same time? (The short answer is Yes, you can.)</p>
<p>I even wrote an <a href="http://www.jasonburack.com/investing-ideas/why-commodities/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.jasonburack.com/investing-ideas/why-commodities/?referer=');">article awhile ago about commodities and commodity  stocks telling you how commodities and their producers offered you  inflation protection and also emerging market growth in case there is no  real inflation. </a></p>
<p>Commodities are really the only  asset class still in a long term, secular bull market and as an investor  looking to protect and grow your wealth long term, I believe you need  to be invested in this powerful long term trend.</p>
<p>I have already written <a href="http://www.jasonburack.com/investing-ideas/silver-savings-account/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.jasonburack.com/investing-ideas/silver-savings-account/?referer=');">a previous and very detailed article on Silver</a>,  which I think is perhaps the best long term investment one can make. Wall St for Main St Co-Founder, Mo Dawoud,  of <a href="http://www.momoneyblog.com/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.momoneyblog.com/?referer=');">Mo Money Blog</a> <a href="http://www.momoneyblog.com/main-street-analysis/the-best-investment-for-this-decade/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.momoneyblog.com/main-street-analysis/the-best-investment-for-this-decade/?referer=');">also has an article about Silver</a>.</p>
<p>But, today I wanted to talk more  about Silver’s more popular big brother, Gold.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.jasonburack.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/gold-coins-images.jpg" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.jasonburack.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/gold-coins-images.jpg?referer=');"><img title="gold-coins-images" src="http://www.jasonburack.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/gold-coins-images.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>See Gold has a secret power that  most people don’t even know about! Besides doing well in inflation, Gold  also does well as a deflationary hedge!</p>
<p>Surprised huh? I will start my case  for how and why gold does well during a deflationary environment later  in the article.</p>
<p>So what’s really happening in our economy right now? What  should you believe? Which experts should you trust? How can you protect  your portfolio in case of inflation or deflation or both? Are we going  to have bad inflation, bad deflation or will it be some sort of weird,  hybrid mix that will hurt and destroy everyone (some more than others)?</p>
<p>These are the types of things Mo  Dawoud and I think about everyday at Wall St for Main St.</p>
<p>Despite the evidence I have shown  you of conflicting inflationary and deflationary pressures happening  worldwide (I could show you a lot more conflicting evidence still but  let’s keep this article relatively short) and no real clear winner in  the near term, in an “I told you so”  trumpeting fashion, deflationists  like Bob Prechter of <a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.elliottwave.com/?referer=');">Elliot Wave International</a> and <a href="http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/dent06.15.10.mp3" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/dent06.15.10.mp3?referer=');">Harry S. Dent</a> are coming back out of the woodwork to  pat themselves on the back for being right about their long term,  “Deflationary Death Spiral” predictions.</p>
<p>What’s funny is deflation is really  not a death spiral at all. We were just taught it was in Economics 101  by our Keynesian teachers and professors.</p>
<p>In fact, deflation is the cure for  all of the inflation that’s been going on in our economy and monetary  system for many decades. Deflation is something the markets badly want  as a cure for our extreme debt problems.</p>
<p>The problem with deflation is  central bankers and governments want to do everything they can to  prevent it.</p>
<p>The truth about deflation is  economics and business students have been brainwashed for decades that  higher prices are a good thing! Higher (rising) prices are in fact  inflationary if they are rampant in our economy.</p>
<p>Saying higher prices, loss of  purchasing power in our money and therefore inflation is a good thing is  a complete and total lie engineered by Keynes and his economic  disciples, like Paul Krugman, who have written your school’s economic  textbooks to justify government’s hidden agenda!</p>
<p>Higher prices are only good for  higher taxes and for specific corporations. They have ZERO benefit for  everyone! Higher prices do not produce higher wages. Increasing  production and efficiencies, lowering costs and adding more useful  skills produce higher wages.</p>
<p>If a business tries to raise prices  too high, a competitor will come in and compete and threaten to steal  market share or worse, bankrupt the company.</p>
<p>When the free market system is  functioning properly due to innovation, proper competition and other  gains in efficiency, prices should actually be falling on all goods and  services while the quality of goods and services increases.</p>
<p>Capitalism or the free market system  was founded on the belief of “Creative Destruction.”</p>
<p>To give you an example of how the  free market works properly to benefit consumers, this is why a $600 50″  Flat Screen LCD TV of today is cheaper and of higher quality than a  $5,000 30″ Flat Screen Plasma TV was of say about 7 years ago. This is  how a market is supposed to behave.</p>
<p>We still have some markets correctly  behaving in this manner but not nearly as many as there should be. This  is 100% due to government interference in specific markets, like  healthcare to name just one, and also large corporations deciding it is  in their best interest to pay to lobby Congress and get tax breaks, tax  rebates and subsidies instead of investing that capital in more useful  things like innovation, research and development and other things that  would have a long term benefit to society and to the company.</p>
<p>Many corporations have now  sacrificed long term gains for short term profits. Malinvestment,  corruption, inefficiencies and overbearing regulations are suffocating  many markets and are preventing proper competition.</p>
<p>Competition and the threat of  extinction produces innovation and better technology, lower prices and  higher quality in all goods and services.</p>
<p>The problem is governments don’t  like deflation even if that’s what the market says we all need to have  happen. Actually, ‘don’t like’ is not strong enough. They hate deflation  and will do everything in their power, legal or illegal, to fight it!</p>
<p>This often means changing the rules  of money.</p>
<p>Why? Because government’s interest  and the interests of specific corporate special interests completely  conflict with the interests of its citizens.</p>
<p>The interests of government and its  citizens, for the most part, are no longer aligned, which is sad, but  that’s the truth about what has become reality now. Government is now a  separate entity much like a corporation is a separate entity.</p>
<p>Many governments are still spending  frivolously and have not tightened their belts like the rest of us are  being forced to do in our personal lives and in our businesses.</p>
<p>This is the brainwashing I am  talking about. You have been led to believe that there is nothing wrong  with higher prices on the goods and services you need and want. I am  telling you the opposite is true.</p>
<p>Why does the government hate  deflation and lower prices?</p>
<p>Because it lowers their tax  revenues, it gives private citizens back their purchasing power (makes  money more valuable to hold and save and invest) in their money and it  lowers asset prices and other other consumer prices for goods and  services we need and want.</p>
<p>Deflation does not allow governments  to use inflation as a tax to steal our purchasing power (inflation is  100% pure government policy and is really nothing but an invisible,  hidden government tax) and it lowers the taxes they collect on normal  things like wages, property tax, etc.</p>
<p>This is one of the major reasons why  there is so much effort by the Fed and Federal Government to try to  re-inflate the housing bubble and to create inflation.</p>
<p>It’s in the government’s interests  to create inflation (not too much inflation at once or too many people  will wake up and realize and also dump the paper, fiat currency).</p>
<p>The bottom line is modern  governments and central bankers have not allowed deflation to occur  without first trying to interfere heavily in a country’s economy and  markets and to first create inflation.</p>
<p>History is strewn with countless  examples of interventionist policy by governments where the free market  was not allowed to heal itself and purge itself of the bad investments  and misuse of capital.</p>
<p>There is some revisionist history  out there in textbooks that says FDR saved the US from a deflationary  death spiral during the Great Depression of 1929 because his  predecessor, President Herbert Hoover,  who was supposedly a proponent  of the free market stood by and did nothing.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this is another lie  we have all been taught and you will have to unlearn.</p>
<p>The truth is FDR just continued what  Hoover started. Hoover was an interventionist also. He was anything but  a “free market” guy. History book writers who wrote the textbooks we  used in school all needed a goat to make FDR look like a hero and so the  “truth” about Hoover was twisted to make FDR look great and Hoover look  like an evil and uncaring Capitalist pig.</p>
<p>The last non-interventionist  President that allowed a pure deflation and did not interfere in markets  was President Warren Harding during the Great Depression of 1920. This  is a video of a 50 minute speech Austrian Economist, Author, and  Economic Historian Thomas Woods gave on the subject:</p>
<p>
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</p>
<p>Harding refused to interfere in the  markets and he ran on an “allow deflation” platform. In fact, Harding  even cut government spending in half!</p>
<p>While the first year of that  depression was very hard, and I believe unemployment numbers were higher  for that first year than in 1929, the US was out of a depression and  recovering in only 18 months!</p>
<p>Normally, a hyperinflation occurs  followed by a deflation to wipe out the mess completely and so the  system (our economy) can hit the reset button.</p>
<p>This is a very painful process, but  we cannot avoid taking any pain and I am 100% sure we are going to have  to take our “medicine” aka the cure eventually. That cure involves  letting bad debts and bad loans and other toxic things like Mortgage  Backed Securities go to their intrinsic value of zero or close to it.</p>
<p>Besides congratulating themselves,  these deflationists also <strong>ALWAYS</strong> have one last word of  advice.</p>
<p>They tell you to immediately sell  your gold and gold stocks! This is it they say. The top in gold is in  and they are fully sure of it.</p>
<p>There’s just one problem! They’ve  been calling a top in gold for years! How many years have these  deflationists been calling a top in gold?</p>
<p>Well, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/robert-prechters-glimpse-apocalypse-come" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.zerohedge.com/article/robert-prechters-glimpse-apocalypse-come?referer=');">Bob Prechter has been calling a top in gold and silver  every slight increase for the last 15 yrs or so</a>! If you followed his  advice and shorted gold and silver each time, you might be bankrupt.</p>
<p>Here’s a link to the <a href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/individual-gurus/robert-prechter/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.cxoadvisory.com/individual-gurus/robert-prechter/?referer=');">best summary available on the Internet of Bob Prechter’s  track record of forecasts</a>. He and his Elliot Wave followers have  been a lot more correct in the short and medium term with their  predictions than in their long term predictions. In fact, CXO Advisory  Group, the company who compiled the statistics and summary of Prechter’s  forecasts gave Prechter a Guru Accuracy Rating of only 26%.</p>
<p>I would not be listening to Prechter  for long term investment advice. In my opinion, he’s a very good  technical trader. That’s it.</p>
<p>When asked what to buy with the  money from selling your gold and gold stocks, Bob Prechter recommends  short term US Treasuries as the best option.</p>
<p>That’s funny to recommend you buy  debt in a debt crisis don’t you think?</p>
<p>Wouldn’t certain types of cash (non  G7 “Westernized” currencies) be better and safer than US Treasury debt?  Dent has the same recommendations as Prechter.</p>
<p><strong>A Better Solution</strong></p>
<p>Ok, so why the conflicting evidence  of inflation and deflation? Is it even possible to have both inflation  and deflation at the same time?</p>
<p>The answer is ‘Yes’ and according to  <a href="http://danielamerman.com/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/danielamerman.com/?referer=');">Dan Amerman</a>,  this has actually occurred many times throughout history!</p>
<p>Dan Amerman is a former longtime,  and now reformed (he saw the error of his ways) investment banker who  has switched from helping Wall St design weapons of mass destruction  (financial derivatives) to quitting that industry about a decade ago so  he could focus on helping out the people of Main St from losing  everything they have to Wall St and the government.</p>
<p>He also wrote the textbook many  central bankers still use, so it would be slighting him to call him  anything other than an expert at what he does.</p>
<p>He has a free Turning Inflation Into Wealth Mini-Course on  his website that you can sign up for that he sends to you periodically  through email updates.</p>
<p>I’d recommend you sign up for his  course as he can help you increase your Financial IQ exponentially for  free if you are willing to spend the time reading and learning!</p>
<p>After that brief introduction to  Amerman, for those of you unfamiliar with him, now back to my regularly  scheduled argument.</p>
<p>Deflationists say we cannot have  both inflation and deflation at the same time. Dan Amerman counters that  this is the <a href="http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/amerman/2009/1029.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/amerman/2009/1029.html?referer=');">Santa Claus Theory of Deflation</a> that is so  prevalently taught in classrooms by economics professors in academia.</p>
<p>For deflationists, this is what  they’ve been taught in the economics classrooms by mostly Keynesian  Economist schoolteachers and professors who teach central planning, tout  higher prices as a good thing, and lots of other Keynesian nonsense and  General Theory dribble.</p>
<p>This theory of deflation is theory  and jargon and only exists in a vacuum where the US economy is not  affected by other global factors and pressures!</p>
<p>In my humble opinion as well as Dan  Amerman’s opinion, it can and will destroy your net worth if you adhere  to it religiously and bet most or all of your investment and/or  retirement money on it.</p>
<p>In fact, according to Dan Amerman,  pure deflation where asset values AND prices/monetary supply both  deflate at the same time has never occurred in modern history in the way  and the historical examples the deflationists claim it has!</p>
<p>Amerman cites deflationists 2 main  examples and successfully counters their arguments:</p>
<ol>
<li><a href="http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/amerman/2009/0212.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/amerman/2009/0212.html?referer=');">The US Great Depression of 1929</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/amerman/2009/0318.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/amerman/2009/0318.html?referer=');">Present day Japan, which has supposedly been stagnant  with deflation for going on 2 decades now.</a></li>
</ol>
<p>I and many other experts not  believers in Keynesian macroeconomics beg to differ.</p>
<p>They say deflation, which is a  decrease in money and credit, is so powerful that there cannot be any  way for central bankers and governments to continue to  inflate/devalue/debase the Dollar and other paper currencies. I beg to  differ.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.jasonburack.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/John-Exter-Inverse-Expansion-Pyramid.png" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.jasonburack.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/John-Exter-Inverse-Expansion-Pyramid.png?referer=');"><img title="John Exter- Inverse  Expansion Pyramid" src="http://www.jasonburack.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/John-Exter-Inverse-Expansion-Pyramid-1024x634.png" alt="" width="332" height="205" /></a></p>
<p>As a last resort, the Fed and other  central bankers can ALWAYS devalue the US dollar against gold by going  into the open market and purchasing gold.</p>
<p>When you do that you are essentially  shorting your own currency to make it weaker.</p>
<p>Now, admittedly, the US economy is  facing some short term deflationary pressures, but the US economy and  our stock markets are not inside a vacuum because of globalization and  there is not deflationary pressures worldwide. In fact, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/12/business/global/12yuan.html?ref=business" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.nytimes.com/2010/06/12/business/global/12yuan.html?ref=business&amp;referer=');">China has increasing inflationary pressures! </a></p>
<p>Also, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/14/AR2010061405395.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/14/AR2010061405395.html?referer=');">Helicopter Ben Bernanke and the other Keynesians at the  Fed as well as President Obama and others in Congress are seeing the  same thing and it’s time for another round or three or five of large  Stimulus and Job bills! </a></p>
<p>Another $80 billion Stimulus bill is  in Congress already and more will surely come.</p>
<p>There are nowhere near the amount of  signs outside of the developed world that deflation is a risk.  Inflation is still, by far, the main concern in emerging markets and  will continue to be the main concern worldwide for years to come as all  world governments continue to print money, Austerity Measures or no  austerity measures.</p>
<p>Ok well now let’s move onto the  conclusion and something the deflationists really have <strong>ZERO</strong> credible explanation for happening, the curious case of Homestake  Mining.</p>
<p>Citing this example will win you an  argument against deflationists of why gold does well during deflation  every time!</p>
<p><strong>The Curious Case of  Homestake Mining and How it Disproves Everything Most Deflationists  Think About Gold’s Behavior During Deflation<br />
 </strong></p>
<p>I have debated deflationists often about  inflation vs deflation and about gold. All deflationists HATE gold and  think it is a very poor investment in deflation.</p>
<p>The most popular answers always are, “you  can’t eat gold,” “if the world is ending gold will be useless,” “if  things ever come to that government is going to confiscate all of your  gold and we are going to laugh at you, give you nothing for it and we  are going to tell you ‘I told you so’,”  “you will not be able to defend  your gold,” “water, food, guns, ammo and plant seeds will be more  valuable.”</p>
<p>They then say how gold will collapse during a  deflation and the price will fall by more than half. There’s just one  problem.</p>
<p>History says otherwise!</p>
<p>The truth is they haven’t done their  homework.</p>
<p>Almost none of the deflationists I have  talked to, and I have debated dozens, have studied <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homestake_Mining_Company" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homestake_Mining_Company?referer=');">Homestake Mining</a> and what happened to the company  during the Great Depression of 1929. The deflationist camp cannot  explain it away so they simply try and dodge the “Homestake” golden  bullet/ace.</p>
<p>For those of you unfamiliar,  Homestake Mining was the only major gold mining company listed on the  NYSE during the Great Depression of 1929.</p>
<p>When deflation occurred and FDR took  over for President Hoover, one of the first things he did was try to  seize/confiscate all privately owned Gold.</p>
<p>Government agents were stationed  outside banks and people were told to hand in all of their gold in  exchange for a $20/oz price. Similar attempts were made with silver.</p>
<p>FDR then revalued gold to $35/oz  against the US Dollar effectively devaluing the US Dollar against Gold  by over 40%!!!!</p>
<p>The gold was then melted down into  bars and a secure storage facility was built at Fort Knox.</p>
<p>After the confiscation, the bankers and  people at the Fed knew the gold confiscation and dollar devaluation was  coming ahead of time and they acted on this inside information and they  managed to buy gold bullion and also shares of Homestake Mining knowing  the confiscation of gold would make it a more scarce and desired  commodity.</p>
<p>Confiscating gold will also create a Black  Market for gold as people will have an even larger demand for it because  of its scarcity.</p>
<p>What ensued after FDR’s confiscation  of gold was shares of Homestake Mining reacted as a direct proxy for  gold. <a href="http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html?referer=');">Shares in Homestake Mining took off like a rocket  despite deflation (it wasn’t real deflation as Amerman explains because  government wouldn’t allow it).</a></p>
<p>
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</p>
<p>Here are some more articles on  Homestake Mining and Gold’s Secret Deflationary Powers proving my point:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_98/vronsky060698.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_98/vronsky060698.html?referer=');">1929 Market Autopsy</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/barbera/2005/0414.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.financialsense.com/editorials/barbera/2005/0414.html?referer=');">Frank Barbara’s Analysis from 2005 he did of Homestake,  1929 and The Coming Gold Bull Market </a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.finance-insurance-loans.com/tag/homestake-mining/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.finance-insurance-loans.com/tag/homestake-mining/?referer=');">Physical Gold is Good, But Gold Mining Shares are Better  (if they Confiscate Physical Gold)</a></li>
<li><a href="http://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2008/09/financial-times-sings-praise-of-gold.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2008/09/financial-times-sings-praise-of-gold.html?referer=');">Gold Stocks Do Well During Deflationary Times</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.egold.com/tag/homestake-mining/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.egold.com/tag/homestake-mining/?referer=');">Homestake  Mining and Dome Mining Outpaced the DOW during 1929 Deflation</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Gold_Investment_Articles/Gold_stocks_depression.asp" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Gold_Investment_Articles/Gold_stocks_depression.asp?referer=');">Gold Stocks in a Depression </a></li>
<li><a href="http://financialcrisisround2.com/why-the-gold-price-made-people-millions-during-the-great-depression" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/financialcrisisround2.com/why-the-gold-price-made-people-millions-during-the-great-depression?referer=');">Why the Gold Price Made People Millions During The  Great Depression</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.examiner.com/x-8198-Economic-Policy-Examiner%7Ey2009m8d20-Gold-Could-Do-Well-During-Deflation-Contrary-to-CommonlyAccepted-Wisdom" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.examiner.com/x-8198-Economic-Policy-Examiner_7Ey2009m8d20-Gold-Could-Do-Well-During-Deflation-Contrary-to-CommonlyAccepted-Wisdom?referer=');">More on Gold’s Deflationary Powers </a></li>
<li><a href="http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-stock-price-of-this-gold-mining-company-soared-relentlessly-upward-during-the-entire-bear-market-in-1929/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/investmentwatchblog.com/the-stock-price-of-this-gold-mining-company-soared-relentlessly-upward-during-the-entire-bear-market-in-1929/?referer=');">Further Analysis of Gold Stocks During the Great  Depression of 1929</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2440566/posts" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2440566/posts?referer=');">This is Like The Great Depression But Worse </a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.adenforecast.com/commentariesDetail.php?cc=3" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.adenforecast.com/commentariesDetail.php?cc=3&amp;referer=');">What if Deflation Wins?</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/06/07/a-riddles-resolution-gold-as-inflation-proof-deflation-hedge/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/06/07/a-riddles-resolution-gold-as-inflation-proof-deflation-hedge/?referer=');">Gold as an Inflation-Proof Deflation Hedge </a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page103855?oid=106795&amp;sn=Detail" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page103855?oid=106795_amp_sn=Detail&amp;referer=');">Gold Does Well in Inflation &amp; Deflation</a></li>
<li><a href="http://pragcap.com/how-will-gold-perform-during-deflation" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/pragcap.com/how-will-gold-perform-during-deflation?referer=');">How Will Gold Perform During Deflation?</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.goldensextant.com/Gold%26Deflation.html" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.goldensextant.com/Gold_26Deflation.html?referer=');">Gold and Deflation: A Dissenting Dissection</a></li>
<li><a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/205910-the-two-best-catalysts-for-gold-deflation-and-economic-weakness" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/seekingalpha.com/article/205910-the-two-best-catalysts-for-gold-deflation-and-economic-weakness?referer=');">The 2 Best Catalysts for Gold: Deflation and Economic  Weakness</a></li>
<li><a href="http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/gold-is-an-inflation-proof-deflation-hedge/" target="_blank" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/whiskeyandgunpowder.com/gold-is-an-inflation-proof-deflation-hedge/?referer=');">Gold Does Well in Both Extremes</a></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>The Bottom Line:</strong></p>
<p>So you now know Gold’s secret power. That besides doing well in inflationary times, during deflationary times  gold and gold mining stocks also do well. This is why people need to  own both physical silver and gold and also mining stocks as a  diversified precious metals portfolio in case of confiscation.</p>
<p>Gold will outperform silver during  deflation and Silver will outperform Gold during Inflation. Even if gold is confiscated, other proxies  for gold will shoot up in price like Homestake Mining did in 1929!</p>
<p>In conclusion, based on my own research into  this matter, whether there is inflation or deflation or both, you will  be a lot more protected in physical gold and gold mining shares than you  will be in US Treasuries or in a lot of the conventional paper, fiat  currencies that are still erroneously considered safe havens.</p>
<p>Moving some cash into foreign currencies  outside of US Dollars, British Pounds, Japanese Yen and the Euro is  probably also a good idea as well.</p>
<p>What’s happening now in the markets and our  economy is exactly what gold was designed to protect against.</p>
<p>Gold is currently being revalued by the  markets as money.</p>
<p>It is insurance and protection against  financial calamity and chaos.</p>
<p>The deflationists have not properly studied  history concerning gold and their arguments have no credible explanation  for why Homestake Mining took off like a rocket.</p>
<p>Every deflationist I have talked to has  dodged the Homestake Mining argument in fact.</p>
<p>I’d much rather be holding physical gold and  gold stocks than holding US Dollars and US Treasuries.</p>
<p>Do you own due diligence into this, but I am  of the opinion, that if you as an investor don’t have exposure to  physical gold and silver or gold and silver mining stocks, you have not  done enough research into this matter.</p>
<p>Governments and central bankers are going to  continue to do everything they can to continue to debase, devalue and  inflate these paper, fiat currencies and you need to protect yourself  from this by diversifying in precious metals.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.jasonburack.com/debunking-deflationist-myths/" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.jasonburack.com/debunking-deflationist-myths/?referer=');">Source: http://www.jasonburack.com/debunking-deflationist-myths/</a></p>
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