COT

Gold and gold stocks have refused to correct for more than a few days at a time. Weakness is being bought and quickly. Gold has gained over $200/oz but not corrected by more than 6%. The miners (GDX) have endured three roughly 10% corrections in the past six weeks but nothing greater. A few weeks … Continue reading

After falling for weeks, breaking to new lows and constantly being regarded as a useless asset…

Analysis of the recent COT report…

Here is an updated look at COTs for Gold & Silver…

Gross Silver shorts are at an all-time high….

In this chart we plot the cumulative speculative long position in Gold and Silver relative to cumulative open interest. The price is constructed using half Gold and half Silver. The cumulative speculative position reached 23% last week. From 2002 through 2012, the lows came around 25%. The recent low in the cumulative speculative long position … Continue reading

Tiho Brkan was kind of enough to share these charts which provide insight into the sentiment in the precious metals market…. First is GLD and GLD physical holdings….. Next we have the rate of change for GLD’s value (of holdings)…. Here is Gold with the current positioning of large speculators and small speculators….. Last, here … Continue reading

Here is the AAII survey and the number of bears. Source   Next we show the updated speculator positions in the COT (for Gold):   Here is the same for the US Dollar:  

Last Friday night (European time, 8 February) the Bank Participation Report for 5 February was released. This showed that US banks reduced their net short gold position by 12,886 contracts over the month of January, while non-US banks increased theirs by 2,887 contracts. This is evidence that the US banking community is aggressively closing its … Continue reading

There are many ways to measure market sentiment. We use surveys, put-call ratios, fund flows data and for commodities especially, the commitment of traders reports (COT). Lately, we’ve noted the improving sentiment picture for Gold. As a market weakens sentiment will naturally become less bullish. In this case, sentiment has weakened considerably yet Gold is … Continue reading