Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. ]]> http://thedailygold.com/commentaries/gold-gains-alongside-dollar-clear-winner-from-sp-downgrades-is-germany-as-only-bond-haven-left-in-eurozone/?p=12623/feed/ 0 http://thedailygold.com/commentaries/mining-stocks-in-for-a-move-up/?p=12557/ http://thedailygold.com/commentaries/mining-stocks-in-for-a-move-up/?p=12557/#comments Tue, 10 Jan 2012 22:15:16 +0000 Sunshine Profits http://thedailygold.com/?p=12557

This may be the year that weaker member-states are booted from the euro. Will the continent fix its financial troubles or spiral out of control affecting not only the U.S. economy, but the global economy? The answer rests with Europe’s leaders. The sacrifices and austerity needed to preserve the currency zone and prevent a global financial collapse could become too heavy a burden for the political systems of one or more of the European nations. The whole house of cards is perched on thin ice. One wrong move and the world financial system would be in peril in the same way it was in fall 2008.

In the words of Dave Barry: “Moody’s announced that it has officially downgraded Greece’s credit rating from “poor” to “rat mucus” following the discovery that the Acropolis has been repossessed.”

But seriously, more eurozone troubles this year could mean more dollar (and gold!) buying even though there is no way to know how the euro will react in the short-term to such threats that may already be priced into the market. There is no doubt that the eurozone will be stronger without its weaker members. The problem is that the act of removing anyone from the eurozone will cause instability and will be a bullish factor for gold. If the European recession turns out to be mild or nonexistent, it could create a stock market rally and boost confidence worldwide.

For a funny look at the Eurozone problem we again turn to Dave Barry, who wrote that this past year “the economic crisis continues to worsen in Europe, especially in Greece, which has been operating under a financial model in which the government spends approximately $150 billion a year while taking in revenues totaling $336.50 from the lone Greek taxpayer, an Athens businessman who plans to retire in April. Greece has been making up the shortfall by charging everything to a MasterCard account that the Greek government applied for — in what some critics consider a questionable financial practice — using the name ‘Germany.’”

But Europe is not the only part of the world that has been troubled by recent economic conditions. Troubling signs suggest that the Chinese growth juggernaut, an anchor for the tumultuous past few years, could be slowing down, which raises risks for the global economy.

Can Chinese leaders guide their economy, the second largest in the world, to a soft landing making some overdue economic changes without halting growth? China’s growth has been fueled by exports of manufactured goods and real estate investments. Exporters could be hampered by the likely European recession, and the Chinese housing market is showing signs of trouble, a bubble about to burst. Now the question remains if China can shift to domestic demand for consumer goods and services, and away from exports and housing, without a major recession that could endanger global growth? That answer will help determine the health of the global economy in the coming year.

However, we do not need a fortune cookie to know that China will continue to buy gold, as much as it can get its hands on.  China has every motive to move some of its massive $3 trillion-plus reserves into gold, the only currency that no other country can control. At the moment, the richest Western countries, including the United States, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, hold between 60% and 80% of their entire reserves in gold. The figure for China is less than 2%. The rest is simple math.

To see if this is translated into a bullish outlook for precious metals in the short-term is another thing. Our focus today will be on mining stocks. Let’s begin the technical part with the analysis of the Amex Gold Bugs Index (ticker HUI; charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)

In the long-term HUI Index chart, we see that the index bottomed at the final support line and quickly rallied back above the 500 level. At this point, it appears to have reached the final bottom of this consolidation period. Gold stock prices are likely soar much higher. It seems that a breakdown back below the support line is very unlikely now as the index level is significantly above it.

In the short-term GDX chart, we see that the rally has paused somewhat in the last couple of days. The sharp move higher on significant volume was followed by a low volume pause. Consequently, it appears be just a pause and another rally is likely to be seen next. This is reinforced by the bullish situation for precious metals themselves, as argued in our last essay on the possible rally in silver:

(…) we see that the cyclical turning point worked perfectly as prices reversed sharply right at that point and then began to rise. These moves further increase the odds that we have seen a major bottom and it could very well be years before silver’s price is as low as it has been recently (or we may never see silver price as low as we just did).

This is by no means a sure bet, but twice previously, when silver bottomed at cyclical turning points in 2004 and 2010, we have seen an ultimate low – lower prices never followed. The long-term charts suggest that at least a medium-term rally is underway at this time.

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index chart has recently indicated good buying opportunities. This did not mean that a final low had been reached. It simply was a good time to buy. Gold stocks have since moved a bit lower but are now higher and apparently acting on the buy signal over the past couple of weeks would have been a good idea.

In the GDX SPY ratio chart, a bottom is seen and the ratio is still close to the 2010 lows. Precious metals have been extremely oversold and the RSI levels confirm this. Although the recent rally may seem sharp, it is truly not significant from a medium or long-term perspective. There is still a lot of room to the upside.

Summing up, the outlook for gold and silver mining stocks appears to be bullish, similar to the situation for gold and silver.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It’s free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

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Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio?

Sunshine Profits provides professional support for

Gold & Silver Investors and Traders.

Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits’ Premium Service gain access to Gold Charts, Gold Investment Tools and Analysis of Gold & Silver Prices Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sign-up for a free weekly trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations.

]]> http://thedailygold.com/commentaries/mining-stocks-in-for-a-move-up/?p=12557/feed/ 0 http://thedailygold.com/commentaries/euro-hits-new-lows-swiss-franc-bounces-what-does-that-mean-for-precious-metals-and-commodities/?p=12550/ http://thedailygold.com/commentaries/euro-hits-new-lows-swiss-franc-bounces-what-does-that-mean-for-precious-metals-and-commodities/?p=12550/#comments Mon, 09 Jan 2012 19:02:48 +0000 Jeb Handwerger http://thedailygold.com/?p=12550

Commodities In Characteristic Selloff

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. ]]> http://thedailygold.com/commentaries/gold-up-5-on-week-in-euros-as-recession-data-hit-europe-us-cant-decouple-from-eurozone-crisis-despite-positive-jobs-news/?p=12519/feed/ 0 http://thedailygold.com/commentaries/don%e2%80%99t-forget-about-gold-but-watch-the-currencies/?p=8852/ http://thedailygold.com/commentaries/don%e2%80%99t-forget-about-gold-but-watch-the-currencies/?p=8852/#comments Tue, 25 Oct 2011 21:22:56 +0000 Sunshine Profits http://thedailygold.com/?p=8852

Based on the October 25th, 2011 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver analysis.

A recent International Monetary Fund report estimates that China exports more inflation to the developing countries than had been previously assumed. For every 1 percentage increase in Chinese inflation, the increase in Asia-Pacific countries is 0.25-0.5 percent. The report argues that the real danger for regional inflation is an up-tick in Chinese output driving commodity prices up. It notes that a 1 percent increase in Chinese output can raise global commodity price inflation by about 5 percent and that the Asian-Pacific region is especially vulnerable to commodity price increases since food and energy compose a sizable proportion of average daily spending.

China’s strategy to build up an enormous export-led growth engine has been to use low wages and to keep its currency cheap. Experts estimate that the Chinese yuan is 40% undervalued, making Chinese products artificially cheap. China has also used its huge market to lure Western companies to transfer their next-generation technology to China. Goods are as much “copied in China” as “made in China.” Many Chinese realize that it is time to change that template but that will be difficult as long as  China’s entire system stifles creativity by putting emphasis on rote learning rather than innovation.

The U.S. Senate has recently voted for the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011, which would allow the US to punish any country that manipulates its currency with special duties and import tariffs. The bill is targeted at China, even though it doesn’t mention any country specifically. It is unlikely that the bill will pass the House. Even if it does, it is not likely that such a bill will persuade Beijing to change and it could ignite a trade war. It has already provoked a strong response from China. Beijing describes it as trade protectionism, condemning the bill as a serious violation of World Trade Organization rules and a “ticking time-bomb” that could ignite a trade war.

America has to get used to the idea that it will never get those labor intensive assembly jobs back. The differences in wage are too large, regardless of what China does with the yuan.

Keep in mind that China is the world’s largest holder of American debt. Or, as “Late Night” talk show host, David Letterman, said recently: “Two things you need to know about taxes. They’ve extended the deadline to April 18, and when you write your check, just make it out to China.”

http://stockcharts.com/Having said so much about currencies, let’s not delay any longer and let’s turn to this week’s technical part with the analysis of currency markets. We will start with the long-term Euro Index chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)

In the long-term Euro Index chart, we’ve seen the index level bounce off the resistance line, move down to the support level and then pull back up to resistance. Now it is at the declining long-term resistance line, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (it moved only slightly higher since we created the above chart). These two lines now coincide and this likely helped keep the index from bigger rally this week.

If the index manages to move above the resistance level and hold for three days, the breakout will likely lead to even higher index levels with a target around 143. It’s possible that the euro could rally even more. Clearly, the situation is currently tense. A decline from here would confirm the breakdown and a move higher would invalidate the breakdown. As is often the case, time will tell all and what eventually happens will be a key determining factor for the subsequent direction of the currency markets.

On a side note, please keep this chart in mind when you hear talk about technical analysis being no longer valid. The recent reversal after a bullish-hammer-candlestick-pattern coinciding precisely with the Fibonacci retracement level was no coincidence.

We look at the implications for the dollar and for the price of gold as we compare them side-by-side (if you’re reading this essay on SunhineProfits.com, you can click the above chart to enlarge it). Here we have some food for thought for those who claim that the correlation between gold and the dollar has disappeared or is no longer applicable. The analogy between today and late 2009 played out remarkably well, as a decline in the dollar coincided with an upswing in gold’s price. So where is the next move from here?

With the tense situation in the currency markets, especially with respect to the euro, the situation is quite blurry. The Eurozone tensions have diminished somewhat this week and a move higher for the euro appears to be about a 55-45 likelihood and would, of course, result in a likely decline in the USD Index.

If you recall what we wrote in our last essay on the bullish outlook for gold, you will notice that the current outlook for the USD Index confirms what we wrote then:

We are inclined to think that we’re relatively close to an upswing in gold. The point here is if a decline is seen before the upswing, it could simply be the formation of a double bottom with the rally yet to come. So a short move down did not invalidate any rally this week since the rally had not yet begun. We have simply seen a rebound after an initial bottom with a second bottom now being formed. As long as the two support levels in the $1,600 range hold, the outlook remains bullish.

Summing up, a move up in the Euro Index and a move down in the USD Index would have bullish implications for precious metals and the above-mentioned point is very much up-to-date. It fact, it seems that the precious metals market is already moving higher even without waiting for a signal from currencies, which means that if that signal comes, the rally could accelerate.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It’s free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
www.SunshineProfits.com

* * * * *

Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio?

Sunshine Profits provides professional support for

Gold & Silver Investors and Traders.

Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits’ Premium Service gain access to Gold Charts, Gold Investment Tools and Analysis of Gold & Silver Prices Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sign-up for a free weekly trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations.

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

By reading Mr. Radomski’s essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Back in July I wrote an article discussing the fact that the Euro had failed so far to come under pressure during this wave of the European debt crisis.  In fact it was still in a technical uptrend since bottoming in 2010 after the first wave of the Euro crisis.  Last week the picture for the Euro changed significantly as it fell -3.90% for the week and fell out of a trading range between 140 and 145.  The breakdown out of this trading range could be the beginning of a new Stage 4 downtrend for the Euro, as it is now trading below its 30-week moving average which has also turned lower.

The U.S. dollar conversely has broken out of its trading range and could be on the verge of a new Stage 2 uptrend.  This will undoubtedly have an impact on other sectors of the market, as the dollar has shown to be negatively correlated to most asset classes since the 2008 financial crisis.  Chris Puplava from Financial Sense just wrote a good article showing some of the correlations of the dollar to other asset classes.  Most sectors of the stock market appear to have a negative correlation in the -0.40 to -0.50 range to the U.S. dollar, which could be characterized as a moderate negative correlation.  What this basically means is that they don’t always move in the opposite direction of each other, but have shown a tendency to move in opposite directions.  Since most sectors of the stock market have transitioned into a Stage 4 downtrend it is not very helpful to the stock market to now have a rising dollar.

Gold actually has a negative correlation of less than -0.20 to the dollar, which means that gold has shown a weaker tendency to move in the opposite direction of the dollar than the stock market.  This runs contrary to a lot of common thinking that gold always runs counter to the action in the U.S. dollar.  Relatively speaking, this weaker negative correlation is good news for gold since gold has been the leading sector of the market over the last few months.  Gold is currently consolidating under the 1900 level which it needs to take out for its uptrend to remain intact.

Two other charts worth paying attention to now that the dollar is attempting to rally is copper and the commodities index.  Both have been consolidating in a Stage 3 instead of breaking down with the rest of the market.   But a rallying dollar could potentially be the push needed to transition them into a Stage 4.

This potential structural shift in the movement of the U.S. dollar is bearish for the stock market.  The stock market didn’t really need this bad news, since it has already broadly transitioned into a Stage 4 downtrend across most sectors of the market.  Stan Weinstein, who outlined the Stage Analysis method in the bookSecrets For Profiting In Bull And Bear Markets, says in the book that above all else, do not buy or hold anything in a Stage 4.  I definitely agree with that statement, as the only way to lose significant money in the market is to stay on the wrong side of the market and build up losses.  As a trend follower the number one job is to listen to the message of the market, which includes the bearish potential outcome of a trend change in the dollar.

Based on the August 19th, 2011 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver analysis.

We are marking a dubious 40-year anniversary this week. It was on August 15, 1971 that President Richard Nixon unilaterally “closed the gold window,” severing the dollar’s ties to gold forever, possibly one of the most significant policy decisions in modern economic history. It was a part of dramatic measures meant to deal with the nation’s huge balance of payments deficit, its weak growth, and inflation. Speculative attacks on the dollar had begun in the late 1960s as concerns mounted over cost of the Vietnam War and America’s rising trade deficit. Other countries were increasingly reluctant to take dollars in payment and demanded gold instead.

It’s very possible, looking back in hindsight, that Nixon had no choice. There was panic in the markets and Great Britain had tried to redeem $3 billion for American gold. The official dollar debts in the hands of foreign authorities were so large that America’s gold stock would be insufficient to meet the swelling official demand for American gold at the convertibility price of $35 per ounce. It’s seems reasonable to think that America had no interest in giving away the contents of Fort Knox to foreign governments.

And so, Nixon ended the greenback’s precious-metal guarantee thus creating the current floating exchange monetary system in which currencies are backed by fiat, or trust. In other words, the currency has value because the government says so. No longer would the U.S. permit other countries to exchange their dollars for gold. (Under the agreement only the U.S. dollar was required to be convertible to gold.) At 40 years of age fiat currency is looking frayed and worn at the edges. At the time of the making of the Bretton Woods agreement, the U.S. was the world’s largest creditor. Now it is the world’s largest debtor. At that time people took it for granted that each generation would have a better life than the last. That is no longer true.

Having looked back at history, now it’s time to look at the future. To see how the precious metals will behave let’s begin the technical part of this essay with the analysis of the Euro Index. We will start with the long-term chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com).

In the long-term Euro Index chart this week, we see yet another attempt for the index to move above the short-term declining resistance line. The previous move above it was not verified and has since been invalidated. It’s unclear whether this will be seen once again.

The most recent move above the resistance line was followed by a move back to it. If the breakout does hold and is verified, a rally in the Euro Index will likely follow. This would almost certainly result in lower values for the dollar and perhaps higher precious metals prices. A breakdown however, will clearly be bearish and likely lead to further declines for this index and may have a negative impact on gold and silver prices as well.

In the long-term USD Index chart, we do not really see any reflection of the recent moves in the Euro Index. The situation is very tense here and the index has been moving back and forth between an important support level and an equally important resistance level. It is now within a tight trading range and it is probable that a breakout or a breakdown will be seen soon. The direction of this move will likely determine the direction of the next significant move for the dollar.

Whatever happens in the USD Index will likely have a big impact on gold and the rest of the precious metals sector. Based on the recent correlation between the dollar and gold, a significant move for the dollar will probably result in the classic impact where the exact opposite is seen in the price of gold. That is to say that a significant rally in the USD Index will likely be accompanied by much lower price levels for gold. Conversely, a large decline will likely lead to much higher prices for gold.

In the long-term S&P 500 Index chart, this week’s price action is quite similar to what was seen last summer. A sharp and significant decline was followed by a period of back-and-forth price action for the next several months. Because of the important recent signals from the 30-year bond market, it is even possible that the stocks could rally before any consolidation is seen. Long-term yields have plunged and this has historically resulted in a rally for stocks.

What we wrote on August 12th in our essay on the possible top in gold is very much up-to-date:

(…) the situation for stocks in general looks bullish in the short term. With the general stock market having significant negative correlation with gold, this implies lower prices of the yellow metal and analysis of gold itself confirms that. Based on the points made above, it does appear that we are quite close to a local top and long positions in gold at this point seem very risky, at least for the short term.

To confirm that the basic correlations remain pretty much the same, let’s take a look at this week’s Correlation Matrix.

As we may see, gold continues to be negatively correlated with the general stock market in the short term (30-day column). This means that if stocks rally, lower gold prices are likely even though gold is currently close to its all-time high price.

The long-term coefficients between gold and the dollar are also negative and the implication here is that if a significant rally is seen in the USD Index, gold’s price will probably move lower. The effect will also likely be negative upon silver and gold and silver mining stocks. The exact opposite (i.e. a move higher in gold, silver and mining stocks) is likely to happen in case the USD Index declines sharply.

Summing up, the situation is very tense and unclear in the currency markets. A breakout and a confirmation of it are about the only way the picture will be clarified for the euro and the dollar. Each index is presently at a crossroads and whichever breaks out and significant rallies will determine whether the impact upon gold prices and the precious metals sector overall will be positive or negative. As far as the general stock market is concerned, Thursday’s decline in stocks was quite volatile but did not necessarily change the overall outlook. It still seems that the weeks ahead could very well be bullish for stocks although this upturn may not be seen immediately. At this point it seems extremely important to keep track of the general stock market as it’s significantly correlated with precious metals. Any rally in stocks or in the USD Index (only significant ones matter in case of the latter) would most likely result in lower prices for gold, silver and mining stocks.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It’s free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
www.SunshineProfits.com

* * * * *

Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio?

Sunshine Profits provides professional support for

Gold & Silver Investors and Traders.

Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits’ Premium Service gain access to Gold Charts, Gold Investment Tools and Analysis of Gold & Silver Prices Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sign-up for a free weekly trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations.

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

By reading Mr. Radomski’s essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Written by Jason Hoerr
www.forextraders.com

AUDUSD and Gold Fighting To Move Higher

Two of the best performing financial assets in the last year have been gold and the AUD USD.  Gold bugs reached fever pitch in early May as spot gold prices reached the 1575 level.  The extreme buying gold drew AUD USD into all-time HI’s as well, as the most actively traded commodity pair hit 1.1000.
Now, over the last month both spot gold and AUDUSD have moved into tight ranges of consolidation near their all-time HI’s as investors consolidate gains and the market considers its next move.
Reserve Bank of Australia
Australia is one of the largest gold mining countries in the world, and its heavy mining sector tends to significantly impact the overall economy and the AUDUSD exchange rate.  As commodities rally, AUDUSD tends to rise and as commodities sell off, AUDUSD tends to fall.  In recent weeks, the pullback in commodity prices has caused the AUDUSD to cool off.
Over the last 18 months, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been aggressively tightening interest rates in order to stem inflation and retain order in the economy.  On Monday, the RBA announced that it would keep rates on hold for a second consecutive month.  The RBA noted concerns in the global economy and contained inflation in Australia as reasons to keep the interest rate unchanged.
This RBA decision led the AUD to form a doji on the daily candle yesterday.  This is significant.
As you can see in the chart above, the AUDUSD has been forming a descending triangle for about 6 weeks, with lower HI’s and a horizontal base of support at 1.0489.  Now, yesterday’s daily candlestick is covered in the red-shaded circle.  Notice that the low of the day is very near the low of the last 6 weeks.  The RBA came out with a pretty dovish (negative) Minutes release, and yet the AUDUSD could not break that low.  Typically, if a financial instrument cannot sell off when bad news comes out, then it is highly probable that it is going to continue moving higher.  You can see that today’s candlestick is remaining inside the HI and LO of yesterday, as neither buyers or sellers are willing to commit to large positions.
We need to see a break of either the bearish trendline connecting the HI’s or the horizontal support guarding the LO’s.  Currently, the AUDUSD is simply stuck in a larger range.
Gold
As the commodity boom continues to cool, Gold has struggled to move higher.  Gold prices, in fact, look very similar to the AUDUSD, as price has consolidated near the HI of the trend.
Instead of a descending triangle like the AUDUSD, gold is forming a beautiful pennant.  Now, this price pattern is typically a continuation pattern in the middle of a strong trend, so in this case, the sentiment still remains bullish for gold.  You can see today’s candlestick in the red-shaded circle, and price is fighting to break out of the pennant.  Gold has been steadily rising over the last few days, although the volatility of movement has been contained.
Gold has major resistance here at the topside of the pennant and then again immediately at the 1550 level.  If Gold can get a strong Daily close above 1550, however, that would be a strong sign of buying interest and a potential resumption of the upward trend.
The Game Plan
The safest way to engage financial markets is to not predict where price will go.  Instead, conduct analysis as we have in this article, and then wait for price to tip its hat.  In the case of the AUDUSD, we want to see a break below support or above resistance, and in the case of gold we want to see a Daily close above 1550. Just remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future outcomes and that risk management and control is key, along with education and knowledge, for any trader.

During the deterioration and crack-up phase underway, the clueless cast of economists remains befuddled and confused. The imbalances are so great that almost none of their theory has merit. They know not how to stimulate anything but big US bank balance sheets with endless grants. They would do well to discard their advanced textbooks and adopt the Sound Money Theory of the Von Mises crowd, which has provided excellent expert guidance during every phase of the Western world financial system breakdown. Consider the paradoxes after an introduction to an important deception by the financial pharmacy that doles out poison pills under central bank sponsorship. Witness Greece and Ireland, which took the IMF poison pills under coercion, washed down the gullet by fiat credit based liquidity of the most toxic variety. If electronic engineers were as incompetent as economists, then cars would not work and computers would not work and communications devices would not work. If industrial engineers were as incompetent as economists, then retail chains would have empty shelves, and gasoline stations would have empty tanks. If the mathematics field were as corrupt as economists, they would redefine the multiplication tables. If the physics field were as corrupt as economists, they would still call the earth flat and the center of the solar system. If the professional athletes were as corrupt as economists, then baseball players would almost all have a hitting percentage under the Mendoza Line. But no! The economists are the squires to the ruling bankers, and serve to propagate the dogma of the high priests who sit in the central bank marble offices. The economists and bankers have destroyed the Western economic and financial system, exploiting it to the hilt, committing deep fraud and demanding redemption from the public till. They are never prosecuted for high financial crimes. They rule the land with privilege and impunity. They are not finished in their deceptions and wrongful forecasts. Almost all their constructs are incorrectly built. Despite a massive skein of horrendous professional performance, they continue to ply their trade and deceive the masses during the great meltdown and fracture.

IMF PRICE FIXING PLAN

The IMF plan to create a basket with inherent currency exchange rates is an attempt at price fixing, a blatant ploy to halt the USDollar decline. The once prestigious and respected global reserve currency is caught in a death spiral. The Special Drawing Rights (SDR) includes the USDollar, the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. Talks are brisk and intense to include the Chinese Yuan also. Within the SDR basket, if used as global reserve substitute, the major currencies will have an interwoven nest of fixed relative exchange rates. The idea is to have the major global banks use the SDR as their reserve currency like a block, a basket. But in order to work, any new reserve basket by definition will contain a rigid set of ratios. To begin with, the ratios are very likely not to favor the USDollar (with USTreasury Bonds) as much as the current makeup among the big banks. Therefore, the fixed ratios would be strained immediately at the imposed start of any new system. The initial startup alignment would alter exchange rates and force the IMF plan to change their fixed ratios. Great difficulty will come with the initial price fixing effort, whose challenge will continue with each passing week. Price fixing never works. This time is no different. The entire fiat platform is sinking.

The central banks hope to stop the USDollar decline. However, what they earn is a uniform decline in all currencies in terms of commodity prices. Rather than devise a new fundamentally sound platform, they rig the broken reeds, tie them together, and hope the failed system functions despite using broken components. The central bankers are desperate. While they appear to be organized, they are actually at war, among themselves and versus big creditor nations like China. They react with increasing desperation to the gradually recognized failure of the monetary system, sinking under the weight of the rapid and uncontrollable expansion of debt. What compounds the rising sovereign debt is the banker welfare which has backfired badly on the political stage. The people are given crumbs while the bankers are given $billions.

The Gold price, the Silver price, the Crude Oil price, even the Copper price and Cotton price and Coffee price and Soybean price and Corn price, will all rise in uniform fashion versus the ludicrous basket that might be forced upon the global banking system. They would solve nothing, but instead impose a socialist pain uniformly. Instead of the USDollar falling more versus other major currencies, it would pull down the others like a huge stone. The true money measures in Gold & Silver would rise in a powerful fashion much more, but in an equitable fashion. Consider the basket creation with Chinese Yuan inclusion out of respect. The ugly cost to Europe and China would be to lose their independence and opportunity to fight off the USDollar. The Europeans and Chinese would lose any discount on commodity prices extended from rising individual currencies. Imagine two good swimmers in a big swimming pool, tied to three or four very bad swimmers. The good would be dragged down by the bad since joined by a deadly rope line. The basket would not float, since its reeds are rotten from old and burdensome debt. Look for Europe and China to nix the stupid vapid SDR basket concept.

Conclusion: A paradox with backfire is at work. The IMF concept is badly flawed, operating as a veiled price fixing initiative. Its SDR basket would be equally toxic to the global banking system. Rather than Gold & Silver rising fast versus the USDollar, the precious metals complex would rise uniformly versus all major currencies. The Gold & Silver bull market would be much more plainly visible from all corners of the world. The currencies would fail together, yoked by the toxic USDollar.

ABSENT US EXPORTER ADVANTAGE

The US exporter advantage from a weaker USDollar will not materialize, contrary to the mainstream nonsense songs of deceit spiced with drivel. The economists have lost their credibility after crackpot notions like Green Shoots of economic recovery, like an Exit Strategy from the 0% corner of capital destruction, like the empty label of a Jobless Recovery. Now they have another rotten plank to stand upon with more demagoguery and false preaching. The central banks have resigned themselves to bring the UDollar down in an orderly manner. They mistakenly believe doing so will stimulate the USEconomy and revive the global economy. Instead, a lower USDollar will lift the entire global economy cost structure and serve to dampen all growth while it leads to starvation in poor nations. They expect the US export trade to pick up and lead the economic recovery. They are mistaken. First of all, the US industry lacks critical mass after decades of dispatch of factories to Asia. The start was the electronics departure to the Pacific Rim in the 1980 decade. The climax was the grand industrial buildup in China with Western investment funds, mostly American. The USEconomy lacks sufficient industry to take advantage of export growth. Secondly, many legitimate industrial advantages are in the possession of companies whose products are widely banned for export. See the advanced computer systems, the advanced telecommunications systems, even some advanced bioengineering systems. They have been captured by the USMilitary and its sprawling defense industry pillboxes. Lastly, a much more engrained cancer will affect the few American exporters that can attempt to exploit a lower USDollar exchange rate. It is the cancer of rising costs.

Most global currencies are rising versus the US$, so the USEconomy is actually hit much harder than other economies, and thus the domestic competitor firms. The lower USDollar will be offset by steadily rising costs, eliminating any exporter advantage. The cost squeeze is so profound in fact, that some of the US exporters will simply go out of business from vanished profit margins and a damaged customer base that is squeezed by global food & energy costs. The US export business costs will rise even more than the USDollar will fall, from rising input costs and even rising federal mandates like health care. Most other nations have less of a cost shock than the United States. The domestic US export industry cost shock eliminates the entire USDollar exchange rate advantage, something so basic that it cannot be seen, and surely not admitted for its heavy political effect. The higher cost of food & energy is painful enough. Americans who believe the export advantage will lead to new jobs are deaf dumb and blind, the sad result of years of propaganda and false teachings.

Conclusion: A paradox with backfire is at work. The US export industries will not be able to take advantage of a lower USDollar exchange rate, since their costs will be the fastest rising in the world. The commodity prices are rising faster versus the USDollar than almost all other currencies. No USEconomic recovery will occur, but instead a massive deterioration will unfold as it hits the wall from rising costs.

CHINESE YUAN UPWARD REVALUATION

Inside China, a monetary system shared with the United States for a long time has wrought similar problems. They have had a similar structure that funds the system from bank credit to stock market investment to construction. They have a housing bubble, insolvent banks, but also $3 trillion in savings. The currency peg has created common asset bubbles in a systemic manner, much like a three-legged race inflicts similar wounds from falls to the ground to the two people joined. The entire Chinese Economy has had to adapt to rising commodity input costs. Some expected them to revalue the Yuan upward by 10%, which would give all of China a discount on input costs. They would pass on the nearly 10% export price hike to customers, the trade partners. Something has happened in the last two to three years. The Chinese have expanded to the Persian Gulf after continued European expansion, and thus made bigger footprints in the malls to fill the stores. China is not as US-centric so much anymore. They are more willing to raise US export prices and lose a portion of market share in the US.

On the financial front, those who have not noticed the war waged by Beijing simply are asleep at the wheel, and far too devoted to suckle from the banker teat of illiteracy and deception. The Chinese have been busy building up their Yuan currency to be first a globally used vehicle in trade settlement and second a reserve currency held in the financial institutions. Success on both fronts have been realized with key bilateral swap facilities with Russia, Brazil, and pockets of the Persian Gulf. They have been diversifying out of US$-based assets for two years. Last week came a shocker. The Peoples Bank of China plans to shed $2 trillion of US$ assets, a tough task to implement. Even if it turns out to be a multi-year plan, it is significant. The effect is obvious on the USDollar, a downward force, a strong force. Any manifested action to dump US$ bonds will be followed by Japanese and Arabs and Koreans, who will follow the Chinese lead in shedding assets. Such is a topic of the expanded G-20 Meetings, whose initiatives are no longer led by Anglos. In the process, the USFed will be isolated as the global revolt continues. The fact of life extending from the financial crisis is that foreign creditors have abandoned the USTBonds.

The Chinese must contend with a vicious cycle. As they shed assets with US$ markings, the USDollar will fall further. It is inevitable that the USDollar will fall another 20% to 30%. Only Americans living under the US Dome of Deception believe otherwise, an echo of either arrogance or ignorance. Import prices will rise for Chinese goods sent to the USEconomy. Their asset dump will push up the Yuan, while official forceful action will attempt to formalize the structure behind the Yuan exchange rates. Watch Wal-Mart for clues, which has already warned of higher store prices. China will finally pass on higher costs, reluctant until in recent months. A small Yuan currency upward revaluation buys a commodity discount. But Chinese export trade is much more global and less US-centric than a few years ago. They will permit a US price rise, both from necessity in profit management and the desire to insult the Americans. They will gleefully flick the noses of the US leadership, and kick their shins, whose shallow leadership and corrupt management deserves response.
Conclusion: A paradox with backfire is at work. The desired goal is to mitigate higher input costs to the Chinese Economy, whether by edict of a higher Yuan value or by action from massive asset sales. It is coming. The process of disconnect from the US shared monetary policy started with several rate hikes and raised bank ratios. The rest of the process will be more painful in outright asset shedding and currency revaluation in the quest toward becoming a global reserve currency.

JAPANESE YEN WILL RISE

The disaster in Japan has many facets and channels of damage. The after effects in Japan will work in numerous hidden ways to lift their Yen currency. Its steady stubborn rise will confuse the constantly wrong-footed economists. Japan must liquidate assets to finance the broad cleanup, the painful displacement, the urgent market support, and the eventual reconstruction. Their entire array of supply industries is very disrupted. The Japanese financial structure has hit the saturation point in national debt at a 140% Debt/GDP ratio, the highest among all industrialized nations. This is the ugly consequence of endless recessions and being trapped in the corner at the 0% rate. The dull blades posing as economists in the United States fail to observe the Japanese lesson that a  nation never emerges from the 0% corner. To admit this is to admit a failure of the monetary system and central bank franchise control tower.

The next phase inside Japan will include an unspoken emphasis of foreign asset sales in order to fund the staggering costs and to avert price inflation. Additional debt with Yen markings risks a surge in domestic price inflation. They are at a tipping point. Their supply industry will suffer from capital destruction as the profit squeeze hits Japan. It will compound the displacement problem encountered by worker homes being destroyed or declared in an uninhabitable area. It will compound the disruption problem seen in interrupted plant operations from power supply cutbacks and input material shipment reductions. The supply industry will shrink somewhat, but it is unclear how much due to government subsidies that could be raised in a big way. The effect on the global economy has only begun to be felt with the supply chain disruptions. Since the Chinese industrial expansion, a victim has been Japan. They lost their trade surplus, recently turned flat. In the next year, the Japanese trade balance will turn into an outright deficit. The effect of the rising Yen will work in a nasty mix with the disruptions from the earthquake and tsunami to bring about a sizeable trade deficit. This is basic, but still missed by the American economists.

Here is the paradox. The trade deficit will not keep down the Yen exchange rate down. The deficit will send into reverse the process of suppressing the Yen currency for 20 to 30 years.

The key to understanding is to recognize the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for its past role. It has served as a loyal (if not controlled) financial colony outpost for the US, dutifully keeping the Yen down and the USDollar up despite the chronic US deficits, both fiscal (government) and trade (gaps from imports over exports). The final phase of Yen Carry Trade unwind has begun. Their 0% corner is permanent. Japan has been stuck in the corner after 20 years, despite strong trade surplus and significant industry, a point that economists never bothered to explain. No longer will the Japanese financial institutions, led by the BOJ, purchase the USTBonds. Next is the flip into reverse of the Yen Carry Trade. Since 1990 incredibly easy money was made in the biggest financial turnstyle of illicit profit, a veritable factory of turnstyles. They used to borrow 0% Yen, with no risk of a rising currency, and invest in high yielding USTreasury Bonds and briskly rising US stocks even if bound in S&P500 baskets. Next Japan will sell assets and send the process into reverse. The YCTrade is never discussed in the US press. Even the venerable Kurt Richebacher never heard of it. Imagine him being instructed on the carry trade dynamics in 2003, a point of embarrassment for him and awkward role reversal for the younger Jackass.

The critical point was reached three weeks ago when an emergency G-7 Meeting was convened. Its purpose was coordination to buy USTBonds and keep the Yen down, ergo Global QE. The Yen Sale Pact was never called Global QE but that is the proper interpretation, since all major central banks became USTBond buyers of last resort. The Gold & Silver market properly interpreted the event, and surged to breakout levels. The effect of the G-7 desperate clumsy pact was temporary. The Yen has climbed back, now at the belt-line level of 121 to 123, the level often seen in a long string of weeks in 2011. Turn to the object of the YCTrade. The USTreasury Bonds have reached an elevated nosebleed bubble level of prices, as a result of the asset bubble promoted and fed with full broad support. Recall the primary vulnerability of asset bubbles, that they require an acceleration in funds to maintain a constant price level. The USTBonds have lost their buyers, as foreign creditors abandoned them long ago. They acted upon the disgust by installing broad diversification schemes. The Japanese natural crisis has mushroomed into an economic and financial crisis. They have responded by selling rafts of USTBonds, which is their right. The G-7 Accord is a stopgap, nothing more. They cannot divert their attention, but they already have. The USGovt budget disaster is just that distraction. In rising from 117 to 122, the Yen demonstrates the slipped attention span. The Yen is back above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages, recovering from the natural process that cannot be halted by bumbling central bankers under siege. Their system is failing on the global stage, with the whole world watching, yet comprehending little except the obvious chaos.

The trade deficit will not keep down the Yen exchange rate down. Contrary to standard economic theory, their trade gap will push up the Yen currency. Such a Jackass forecast goes directly contrary to their broken standard theoretical concepts, few if any have shown to contain much validity or sinew to hold together the broken planks of their financial theory. The Japanese Yen currency will continue to rise even though a trade deficit comes. Their trade surplus used to enable vast funds to suppress the Yen, now gone. The Japanese will sell foreign assets to cover the deficits. They will have to avoid price inflation by selling available foreign assets, in particular the plentiful US$-based assets. Banks will lead the final phase of the Yen Carry Trade unwinding process. Insurance companies will unload US$-based assets in order to finance claims. The financial firms will unload US$-based assets so as to protect Japanese stock values. Asset sales will cover deficits, simply stated, a basic fact of finance. The Bank of Japan will not be able to anticipate or keep up with the pace of asset sales. The overall national costs will be a multiple of current estimates. Already this week the estimates were raised on ultimate costs. Ripple effects will be vast in the supply chain for the electronics and car industries. The Yen will be out of the news until it rises past the 123 level, at which time it will be blow away the veil and reveal the crisis.

Conclusion: A paradox with backfire is at work. The Yen currency will continue to rise, despite a growing trade deficit. Standard theory will not explain the phenomenon, which is that the funds usually devoted to suppress the Yen exchange rate and defend the export industries will be sold in order to fund the cleanup, the support, the displacements, and the reconstruction. The primary assets sold will be US$-based assets, since they are held in high volume and whose sale works to prevent the price inflation backfire.

THE BESIEGED USDOLLAR

The USDollar DX index is flirting with a breakdown. Many analysts, the Jackass included, believe the DX index will eventually break below support lines and emergency tethers, seek its true value, and plunge the financial arena into a full blown global financial crisis. The crisis has not ended, and soon will intensify. Rather than embark on debt restructure and systemic reform, the national leaders dominated by the banker syndicate chose to dole of multi-$trillion welfare for the big US banks, redemption at nearly full value of their toxic bonds, coverage of the endless bills at the black holes in Fannie Mae and AIG, and blind approval of executive bonuses for those largely responsible for the national collapse. The global reaction is to abandon the USDollar and seek an alternative, a monstrous challenge. If foreign nations cannot control decisions or influence them in the USGovt, they can surely discard the USDollar and work to sink the corrupt raft afloat posing as a helm of control. US stewardship has morphed into crime syndicate operation, following a shrouded coup d’etat.

If the Gold & Silver price correction this week was the beginning of a greater correction, or a signal of end of the great bull run, then the USDollar would not display such extreme and vivid weakness. The rise through December and the January resumed decline cleared out the oversold condition, thus permitting further declines. The global monetary system is crumbling. The sovereign debt foundation for that monetary system is suffering from toxemia, a septic flow in circulation within the blood system. The US$ DX index cannot rise above the critical 75 level. The next test is of the 72 level, the generational low that must be defended. If overrun, then the global financial crisis will be squarely focused on the failing USDollar. That is precisely what to expect, as Gold & Silver resume their upward powerful march undeterred by paper hangers. The best propulsion for the precious metals is USFed Chairman Bernanke speaking. He reveals the desperation, the failure, the futility. Let him speak.

MANDATORY WAGE INCREASE

The Jackass will go out on the limb. A public distress signal has come from cost shock. The effect is lower retail spending, lower discretionary spending, lower business spending. The topline growth is in sales, which enables accounting games and claims of expansion. However, higher gasoline sales is not indicative of USEconomic growth, since less volume. It is evidence of price inflation. My forecast is that a nationwide movement by the autumn months will form. The movement will demand mandatory wage increases at a national level. The objective will be to help households squeezed by higher costs, and to avert an explosion of personal bankruptcies and business shutdowns. In time, look for (maybe hope for) two parts of wage and salary increases, merit raise and cost of living raise. The public demand will be for a grand socialist directive to legislate Cost Of Living raises to all Americans. The tremendous squeeze of business profits and household discretionary spending must invite a reaction, a national movement. Either people take to the streets or they win an income hike, even if legislated. Without it the system known as the USEconomy will collapse. Notice the Philly Fed in April plunged down to 18.5 from 43.4 in March, a decline without precedent. It is difficult to hide the breakdown and collapse. If and when a national wage increase to offset the higher cost structure occurs, it will open the floodgate for price inflation. The cost squeeze has ravaged the middle class, and it is severe. The main shelves of food & energy are just the visible tips of the iceberg.

The leaders must throw the restless natives a bone. But here is the battle. The banking and political leaders have made a national objective to prevent the ‘Secondary Inflation Effects’ from occurring, namely rising wages. They observe the rising cost structure with all its consequent distress. The clownish USFed Chairman will conduct public meetings and press conferences. His mission is to explain the urgent need not to prevent wage and salary increases. HE WILL MEET A FIRESTORM OF PROTEST, HOSTILITY, AND ANGER. His mission in plain terms is to save the system by letting the public succumb to cost pressures. He will explain the need for the people to die an economic death so that the banker assets do not collapse, so that the hidden banking system laden with corrupt credit derivatives does not collapse, so that the scourge of systemic hyper-inflation does not ravage and destroy the US financial system. The people probably do not care about such arguments. They will instead demand supplemental wage increases.

SIGNAL TEST FOR END OF GOLD & SILVER BULL

It is not complicated. Have they liquidated any big US banks??  Has any reform come for encouraging the return of US industry??  Has any regulatory reform been pursued for expanding business?? Have they stopped printing money to cover debt??  Has any reduction in USGovt deficits been realized??  The answer is a loud NO on all counts, which signals a continued bull market in precious metals. They print money to cover bonds which raises the cost structure and thus works to remove active capital through the natural process of business shutdowns due to vanished profitability. Watch for job cuts from the pervasive cost shock and its powerful squeeze. Watch for even greater propaganda of economic recovery in supposed business growth, which is almost all price inflation relabeled as growth, fully forewarned by the Jackass over the past three or four months. The Gold bull market will continue for at least a couple more years, as nothing is fixed and the major currencies continue their extreme debasement and ruin. Gold & Silver are currencies of last resort hated by central bankers, more widely embraced in the last year or more. The Silver bull market will continue for even longer, as nothing is fixed and the major currencies continue their extreme debasement and ruin, while industry must contend with widespread chronic shortages.

Bear in mind that the USFed is actively buying the TIPS, icing down the thermometer. They are doctoring the Treasury Inflation Protection Securities meter itself, done openly, without apology, without critical response by the bank analysts, asleep at the wheel. The upcoming wild card: foreign trade will no longer want the USDollar for crude oil or Chinese products. These two arenas are snake pits where the King Dollar will be bitten and delivered venom. So much intellectual inbreeding has taken place among bankers and economists. The jig is up and the game is over. Next comes the collapse, in progress but not yet widely recognized. Take your pick on imagery. The USDollar will face a shut door, as the welcome matt is removed, as foreigners pull the rug out. They are disgusted with unspeakable bond fraud. They are disgusted with endless banker welfare at global expense. They are disgusted with unbridled monetary inflation in the form of accelerating debt monetization. They are disgusted with runaway USGovt budget deficits. They are disgusted with fast rising food & energy prices, attributed directly to the USFed. They are disgusted with lost value of their reserve assets, attributed directly to the USFed. The USEconomy is in the process of collapse. CNN has yet to announce the collapse, so it is not widely perceived. They seem incapable even to report on a basic fact, that the USGovt has already exceeded the legal debt limit.

Just a final footnote on the Libya front. A quote from Manlio Dinucci. He wrote (in translation from Italian), “US and European ruling circles focused on these funds, so that before carrying out a military attack on Libya to get their hands on its energy wealth, they took over the Libyan sovereign wealth funds. Facilitating this operation is the representative of the Libyan Investment Authority, Mohamed Layas himself, as revealed in a cable published by WikiLeaks. On January 20th, Layas informed the US ambassador in Tripoli that LIA had deposited $32 billion in US banks. Five weeks later, on February 28th, the USTreasury froze these accounts. According to official statements, this is ‘the largest sum ever blocked in the United States,’ which Washington held ‘in trust for the future of Libya.’ It will in fact serve as an injection of capital into the US economy, which is more and more in debt. A few days later, the European Union froze around 45 billion Euros of Libyan funds.” So not only debt monetization and hyper inflation keep the US and Western system going, but basic theft of tyrant’s funds. One must wonder if destabilization of tyrant rule has a hidden ulterior motive of confiscation. The news media carefully avoids this confiscation topic and the central bank role in the heated war. Somehow, the Egyptian funds pilfered by Hosni Mubarak have escaped confiscation. My howls of laughter were heard 100 yards (meters) away when Bloomberg News reported that Mubarak had accumulated almost $60 billion over 30 years of dictatorial rule from prudent savings. The legal stealing rights among national leaders is epidemic, and includes the United States and England, the center of the Global Axis of Fascism.

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Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at  www.GoldenJackass.com. For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at  JimWillieCB@aol.com