By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm.

I was starting to put on my bullish hat on Friday morning when out of the blue an ugly close has forced me to rethink my position. After viewing a few hundred charts, I have determined that while I am still leaning into higher prices at this point in time, I will not totally rule out a rollover on the S&P 500. In coming days the news flow will be extreme and headline risk will be everywhere we look. The S&P 500 has been able to deflect worry for quite some time now and in every case the resiliency is unquestionable.

However, we are nearing the beginning of another earnings season which will start in just a few weeks’ time. First quarter earnings for 2011 are going to be quite interesting and most analysts’ estimates are relatively challenging. Will the rubber hit the road into earnings? Are we about to see a double top play out into earnings, or is there going to be a breakout which will take us to the SPX 1,400 – 1,415 price level?

I know, I ask a lot of questions but quite frankly that is what is running through my head. The SPX is not out of the woods yet, and the price action on Friday indicated that there is some serious supply overhead and two key resistance levels to break through before the SPX gets back to clear blue skies overhead.

SPX illustrates the two key price levels

In addition to the uncertainty that earnings season can bring, the primary reason why I am still leaning into a bullish move in the S&P 500 is the recent price action in the U.S. Dollar Index futures. The U.S. Dollar is scheduled to make its 3 year cycle low sometime this spring and the recent price action is indicative that the recent lows may not be the cycle lows. If the U.S. Dollar Index breaks down below recent lows, I would expect to see a nasty sell off.

The U.S. Dollar Index futures daily chart is shown below:

Whether readers believe that we are going to be in an inflationary environment or a deflationary environment is a topic for a different time, but the chart above is undeniable that recently the U.S. Dollar has declined in value and is exhibiting weak price action. Friday morning it looked as though the U.S. Dollar was going to rip higher, but by the end of the day sellers had stepped in and forced the U.S. Dollar into the red for the session. The price action on Friday highlighted the weakness in the U.S. Dollar and the high levels of overhead supply.

If the U.S. Dollar continues to weaken, in the short run I would view this as a positive for the S&P 500, crude oil, and precious metals. If the dollar breaks down to new lows, it should help buoy the S&P 500 and gold prices. Gold has been consolidating for nearly 6 months and a breakout higher from current price levels would make a trip to $1,500 an ounce very likely. I would not be surprised to see gold work even higher than $1,500 an ounce depending on how violent the selloff in the U.S. Dollar might be.

The weekly chart of gold futures is listed below:
I would think that most investors are aware that crude oil futures have been trading higher recently. On Friday oil prices climbed above recent resistance around the $107/barrel price level and reached new recent highs. Members that belong to my paid service enjoyed a relatively low risk options trade that we put on several weeks ago which involved selling cash secured naked puts on $USO. The trade was closed on Friday for a total gain of 85% of the premium that was sold. For long time readers, my stance on energy has been pretty obvious. In the longer term, energy prices almost have to go up as the world’s demand for energy increases while supplies remain flat.

I will likely get involved in another oil trade at some point in the future, but for right now I’m going to wait for a more prudent entry. Based on current price action, it would not surprise me to see crude oil futures test the $110 – $112 per barrel price range in the near future. If the $112/barrel price level is breached to the upside, a test of the $120/barrel price level will be likely.

The weekly chart of oil futures is listed below:

Weekend Trend Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is in an interesting place as far as the price action is concerned. With earnings season rapidly approaching and a possible break down in the U.S. Dollar Index likely, future price action is uncertain. I am leaning into the bullish camp at this point, but that could change rather quickly based on the price action later this week in both the S&P 500 and the U.S. Dollar Index. One thing worth mentioning is that if the U.S. Dollar Index were to bottom around these levels and a bounce higher transpired, it would put negative price pressure on most asset classes. The fact that price action in the U.S. Dollar Index has been weak lately makes me believe a break down is likely, but as most readers know Mr. Market offers few guarantees.

Assuming the U.S. Dollar breaks down, we should see the S&P 500, precious metals, and oil continue to work higher. My eyes are going to be watching the U.S. Dollar Index closely in coming days/weeks. If a breakdown transpires, the potential upside in precious metals and oil could be intense. Ultimately, I remain slightly bullish on stocks and extremely bullish on oil and precious metals. However, my entire thesis could change if the U.S. Dollar Index starts to firm up and begins to work higher. There are simply too many question marks surrounding price action to take on significant amounts of risk at this point in time.

Analysis & Opinions of:
J.W Jones – www.OptionsTradingSignals.com
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com ]]> http://thedailygold.com/chartstechnicals/the-u-s-dollars-impact-on-price-action-in-the-sp-500-gold-oil/?p=6287/feed/ 0 http://thedailygold.com/featured/why-gold-and-gold-shares-have-consolidated-for-five-months/?p=6237/ http://thedailygold.com/featured/why-gold-and-gold-shares-have-consolidated-for-five-months/?p=6237/#comments Fri, 25 Mar 2011 08:01:48 +0000 Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT http://thedailygold.com/?p=6237 Yes Gold has been flirting with all-time highs. Sounds strong, right? Wrong. In reality, Gold has been in a consolidation or running correction since October of last year. In recent weeks Gold has flirted with all-time highs but hasn’t been able to achieve a sustained breakout. Meanwhile, as the chart shows, the gold stocks (GDX, GDXJ) have been in the same consolidation. Yesterday, as GDX and GDXJ neared resistance they were rebuked.

Don’t get me wrong. The price action in GDX and GDXJ is long-term bullish and seasonal analysis also favors a short-term bullish stance. That may not guarantee higher prices tomorrow or next week but it will be obvious six or twelve months from today. That being said, its important to understand why these markets have been in consolidation.

In Gold’s case, it doesn’t perform as well when conventional investments are strong. As soon as equities gained favor Gold lost some strength. Also, a weak dollar is usually more a catalyst for Commodities and not Gold. Gold tends to perform best when conventional markets are not rising.

As a result of the vertical rise in Silver, gold stocks have taken a backseat to silver stocks. However, there are some fundamental considerations here. We show two in the chart below. The first row is Gold in Canadian Dollar terms and the second is Oil. Since the February 2009 peak, the Canadian Gold price is up only 12% while the US Dollar Gold price is up roughly 40%. Gold is much higher than it was back in 2007-2008 but Oil has climbed steadily higher and is now at an all time high aside from a period of three months in 2008.

Remember that most mining companies are Canadian companies. The Canadian Gold price is more important than the US Dollar Gold price. Oil comprises 25% of the cost of mining.

This is why the inflation trade is not always positive for Gold. (Sometimes, as we see now, it is positive for Silver). Money moves into Commodities and equities and Gold underperforms. Some will worry about a peak in the stock market or a falling Oil price but these things will become catalysts for Gold and gold stocks.

What happened in 2010? We had a deflation/sovereign debt scare and most markets sold off materially. Yet, Gold hit a marginal new high in US Dollar terms, Silver held strong and the mining stocks also held up reasonably well.

Treasuries have already bottomed and that is a sign of a pause or correction in the inflation trade. Look for the stock market to peak shortly and the US Dollar to put in a bottom. This will scare out some weak hands but in reality it will set the stage for the next breakout in Gold and gold stocks (as it did in, among other years 2002, 2009 and 2010).

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Jordan@TheDailyGold.com

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Based on the March 11st, 2011 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver analysis.

Recent developments in precious metals space raise series of questions in terms of sustainability of yellow and white metal moves in the foreseeable future. In order to gauge near-term precious metal moves, investors track precious metals’ relationship between currency fluctuations, stock market influence and crude oil prices.  In this essay we would like to provide you with our thoughts regarding crude oil.

In fact, several Subscribers have recently asked us to comment on the relationship, if any, between the prices of crude oil and gold and silver’s price, so here we are. Charts are courtesy of http://stockcharts.com.

The above chart shows the price movements for all three over the past five years and a close inspection seems to indicate that there are no conclusive patterns which will contribute in any way to market timing signals.

Oil, silver and gold are of course all commodities. Generally, bull markets are often seen across numerous commodity sectors simultaneously and it’s therefore not surprising to see these three in uptrends at the same time. Please note that tops in oil correspond to tops, bottoms and sideways price movements in gold and silver. Bottoms in oil also correspond to tops, bottoms, and sideways price movements in gold. Consequently, a local top or bottom in oil does not necessarily have any short-term implications for Gold and Silver Speculators.

Let’s take a closer look at the gold:oil ratio.

The above chart does not provide any information which seems to be useful in predicting gold’s future price performance.

Declines in the ratio – such as the one that we’ve seen recently – mostly correspond to higher gold prices without any specific details. However, since gold is in a strong bull market, then even random events would correspond to higher gold prices on average. Consequently, there’s nothing about the ratio that would make us use it as a trading tool and we do not feel that this ratio is one which should be monitored on a daily basis.

We’ve checked the silver to oil ratio as well.

In the silver / oil price ratio, there is little seen here as well, but we do note the formation of a cup-and-handle pattern. If this bullish pattern further develops and silver breaks out of it, much higher silver prices could be seen. Still, this formation is a long-term one, which means that the bullish implications are also long-term. Silver is however already in a very strong bull market, so this is nothing new.

Summing up, crude oil, gold and silver are all indispensible commodities, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that there has to be a significant timing-related link between them. In this case, it seems that gold:oil and silver:oil ratios are not really worth being followed on a daily basis. If you are interested in learning more about gold and crude oil from the long-term perspective, be sure to read our previous essay entitled Gold and Crude Oil. Should You Be Afraid?

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Sign up for our gold & silver mailing list today and you’ll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on my website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious PM Investors and Speculators. It’s free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
www.SunshineProfits.com


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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

By reading Mr. Radomski’s essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Mounting social and political unrest in the Middle East boosted appeal for commodities as a safe investment option in recent weeks. Crude oil topped $100 a barrel and near month gold and silver futures traded above $1440 and $35 respectively, in the NYMEX.  Besides geopolitical developments, currency fluctuations and stock markets influenced precious metals.
Ongoing interest in precious metals induces positive trend in gold and silver mining stocks. After all, gold and silver stocks move in tune with gold and silver. No wonder – generally, gold mining companies’ business is to produce gold and sell it. As long as they don’t hedge their entire production, their revenues are based on the price of gold. Higher price of gold means higher revenues, which means higher profits, which means higher stock prices. At times mining stocks lag and at times they lead the underlying metals, so analyzing them is an important addition to the regular analysis of gold and silver prices.
Let’s have a detailed overview on what is happening in gold and silver mining stocks space. Without delay any longer, let’s turn to this week’s technical part with gold and silver mining stocks. We will start with the long-term XAU Index chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)

The XAU Index is a proxy for gold and silver mining stocks. Last week’s comment that “This week we continue to see a fight for new highs” here continues to hold for this week.
On a short-term basis, we have seen these 2008 levels surpassed, but here in the XAU Index chart, we are looking at major long-term moves. The use of monthly candlesticks, a valid charting tool for very-long term analysis, shows that values are only slightly above 2008 highs and a more significant move should be seen here before we state that such a breakout is definitely in. Therefore, we describe the trend as slightly bullish.

In our previous essay entitled Top in Stocks and Silver? we wrote that the head-and-shoulders pattern which was under development last week has nearly been invalidated. This would of course be a bullish development.
We now see that the head-and-shoulders pattern has been clearly invalidated with index levels remaining above the level of 2008 and 2010 highs. Consequently, the risk of a move down to the 400-450 level appears to be very low at this point. RSI levels based on the Gold Bugs Index are not above 70 and therefore not overbought. There is some room to the upside in the RSI here so a continuation of the current rally is possible and – based on other factors – likely.

In the short-term GDX ETF chart (again, a proxy for gold & silver mining stocks), analysis of volume is our general focus point. Thursday’s decline in ETF levels can be termed insignificant because it was not accompanied by an increase in volume.
As was the case with the HUI Index, the RSI for the GDX ETF is also below overbought levels. This appears to provide some support for the validity of 2010 highs as target levels although they have not yet been reached.
No support levels have been breached and index levels are closest to the short-term rising support line. This grey-dashed line in our chart has been touched on an intra-day basis but a move higher followed. The outlook remains bullish.
Now let’s turn towards GDX:SPY chart.

The chart provides barely any changes since the previous week, which by itself is somewhat bullish. In 25th February premium commentary, we wrote the following:
The GDX:SPY ratio chart is often used to reveal a sell signal. In other words, we usually see a spike high volume in the ration close to a local top. Such action would be attributed to the volume in mining stocks being high compared to other stocks.
We have not seen such a signal here this week and we have included this chart for this reason. Mining stock volume levels have not been high compared to volume accompanying moves in other stocks and consequently the volume ratio has not spiked.
This lack of bearish signal is additional information in favor of a rally in mining stocks although perhaps a few days pause may be seen first. The important point is that a rally is clearly more probable than a downturn based on the price and volume action seen in this chart.
Again, a single spike in volume here, especially if combined with a resistance level in the ratio and a supporting RSI would be a strong sell signal. This has not been seen recently and the critical bearish signals have not been seen lately.
Overall, gold and silver mining stocks seem ready to move higher from here. Thursday’s decline was insignificant and analysis of recent trends continues to point to a bullish outlook.
The implication here is that it is possible that Thursday’s decline may have been, in fact, the last local intra-day bottom rather than the beginning of a decline. Consequently, a rally could be seen from here. We will follow this closely and report to you should any of these assumptions be invalidated.
Summing up, declines in gold and silver stocks were barely visible and have not yet been confirmed. Consequently the outlook remains bullish for gold, silver and precious metals mining stocks. The question is for how long. If you’ve been considering using professional services to help you in your gold & silver investments, this might be a good time to go for it.
To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Sign up for our gold & silver mailing list today and you’ll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on my website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious PM Investors and Speculators. It’s free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
www.SunshineProfits.com


* * * * *
Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio?

Sunshine Profits provides professional support for

Gold & Silver Investors and Traders.
Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits’ Premium Service gain access to Gold and Silver Commentaries, Tools, and Charts. Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sign-up for a free weekly trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations.

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

By reading Mr. Radomski’s essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Some financial commentators have picked up on the fact that the dollar has failed to get a safe haven bid so far during the turmoil in the Middle East. This isn’t normal, especially considering the problems one of the main alternatives to the dollar, the Euro, has had over the past year or so. The dollar was the recipient of two separate flights to safety over the last 3 years, one during the financial crisis in 2008, and one during the Euro crisis in 2010. But since peaking in 2010 the dollar has steadily trended lower, even during the current crisis in the Middle East.

The chart below takes a long term look at the dollar, and shows the last major downleg from late 2005 to early 2008. Notice how the current chart pattern in the dollar is similar to the rounded top the dollar formed in 2006, before breaking down into Part 2 of the downleg. The dollar is also currently declining below a falling 30-week moving average, just like it was in 2006 before it broke the support line and started to accelerate its trend lower.

During Part 1 of the last major dollar downleg, from November 2005 to November 2006, the broad market including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq went higher along with commodities, gold, and oil. Clearly all asset classes, including stocks, were benefiting from the decline in the dollar.

The same thing has happened so far during the current dollar downleg from the June 2010 high.  The major indexes are up strongly along with commodities, gold, and oil.

During Part 2 of the last major dollar downleg, from November 2006 to March 2008,  the major indexes actually fell while the dollar lost 15% of its value.  This was in part due to the financial sector topping in early 2007, but is still a dismal performance when combined with the value lost in the dollar.  Commodities on the other hand, and more specifically gold and oil, performed exceptionally well and handily made up for the value lost in the dollar.

The outperformance by gold and oil over general commodities in Part 2 of the last major dollar downleg can also be seen in the next two ratio charts comparing gold and oil to the commodities index.  Notice that oil initially underperformed commodities during Part 1 of the downleg but came roaring back and outperformed dramatically in Part 2.

In the current dollar downleg so far, both gold and oil have underperformed general commodities and are also coming off of 2-year lows against commodities.

Given the undervaluation of gold and oil against commodities currently, they could easily switch gears and outperform commodities if the dollar breaks support and continues to trend lower.

Source: Gold and Oil Should Outperform as the Dollar Continues to Fall

I will never make the mistake of assuming the world follows a linear path. I have always said that the major risks are to the downside, whether it be civil unrest, war, or a bond default. We live in a dynamic world that people just don’t understand. One second the world seems to be at ease, the next second civil unrest breaks out  all over the Middle East and Africa. One second stocks can’t possibly go down, the next second stocks retrace weeks of gains in 2 days. One second gold is a “barbaric relic”, the next second people are buying at any price. This is just the way the world works. Understand that when U.S. government bonds suffer systematic failure, it will seemingly come out of nowhere.

Gold

It was only a week ago that the mainstream was saying that people were fleeing gold because of an economic recovery. Oh how quickly they change their tunes. Gold is still in a bull market. No matter what the pundits say, the price action in gold is far from bubble-like.

Gold is hovering above its moving averages and is close to testing its all time highs at $1430. I will be watching this level very closely. On a breakout I will be a buyer. Some people may wonder why I just don’t buy now instead of waiting. My thought process is that a breakout from long-term resistance is very bullish and implies much higher prices. However, a failure to break out above $1430 could portend considerable weakness. Buying a breakout is a higher probability trade. I may lose out on some gains, but I also protect myself from more substantial losses.

Stocks

Events in the Middle East may have been the catalyst, but stocks were long overdue for a correction. I’ve always felt that stocks needed to correct a good 10-20% before resuming their bull market. A 10% correction would bring us to about the 1st retracement level from the July lows. If stocks were to fall this low, I would be very tempted to add. While dividend yields are not as attractive relative to bonds as they were last year, a healthy correction will turn the tides in favor of stocks.

Crude Oil

Crude oil was trending upward steadily until the recent events in the Middle East. $100 is the key level here. If it can hold as support, then the outlook for oil will be very bullish. Let’s not forget how $100+ oil will affect Americans at the gas pump. I personally think $4 gas nationwide is coming again this summer. Discretionary spending is going to take a big hit as will GDP growth.

We live in a very interconnected world. The effects of policies in the U.S. are felt abroad and vice versa. If instability persists in the Middle East, Americans will feel it at the gas pump. This will only fan the flames of growing civil unrest in the U.S. When protests really start picking up in America, you won’t be hearing nonsense about America’s “fight for democracy.” This explanation of  events in the Arab world is  somewhat baffling.  The U.S. has had its hand in Middle Eastern and Arab politics for a long time, and for Obama to get behind the move towards democracy (or military dictatorship if you want to get technical) in Egypt is something out of the Twilight Zone.  People  need to realize that the unfolding events are mostly about economics.

Baby Boomers have not saved for retirement. Home prices (aka piggy banks for Boomers) are falling. Taxes are rising. Pensions are underfunded. Social Security payment increases are linked to the manipulated CPI, so Boomers are getting screwed and they know it. Younger generations of Americans are perturbed that they have to pay for the profligacy of prior generations. The government has its head in the sand and their solution to this debt crisis is to get into more debt. Pure genius!

There will be civil unrest in America that will make what’s happening in Wisconsin look minor in comparison. Municipalities will start going bust and you will hear the word “bankruptcy” a lot. Gold is going to make $100 moves in a day. U.S. government bonds will be as safe as AAA-rated mortgage-backed securities were. Most of the population will be shocked as they always are when things outside their narrow perspective of the world occurs. The world is going to be a much different place in the next 5-10 years. Out of the pain will come renewed awareness and economic prosperity, but we must first pay the piper. That day is approaching very quickly.

Source: http://expectedreturnsblog.com/civil-unrest-moving-markets/

Let’s breakdown the December trade deficit numbers released today.  For all of December, the trade deficit was $40.6 billion, roughly in-line with expectations and up $2.7 billion from November.  The media is already pointing to the fact that imports increased by $5.1 billon from December to November as the signal that the U.S. consumer has returned and the economy is improving.

But let’s look at the golden truth.  The total value of goods imported in December was $116.6 billion, up $2.9 billion from November.  Of that, $22.5 billion was oil, up $2.7 billion from November.  THUS, of the total amount of the increase in goods imported from November to December, $2.7 billion – almost 100% – of that was oil. Does that look like the consumer is spending more money on “consumables and durables?”  Rest assured, the full amount of the value of oil imported was from higher prices.  The consumer in this country is now spending an even bigger percentage of his monthly paycheck on oil.  THAT is bad for the health of the economy.

What is more interesting, in terms of the inflation picture, is the fact that China appears to be taking measures to “repatriate” inflation back to the U.S. by raising interest rates and slowly strengthening the value of the yuan.  This will cause the price of Chinese imports (i.e. Walmart, Best Buy, Target, etc) to rise in value, further exacerbating the accelerating price inflation in this country.

This will be GREAT for gold/silver.  Make no mistake about that.  And another little tidbit of news that you won’t find reported on most U.S. media sources is that Viet Nam, the 5th largest importer of gold in the world, just devalued its currency by 7% – a huge amount in terms of currency devals. Here’s the LINK This will further fuel inflation in Viet Nam AND further fuel the demand for gold by the population in that country.

It’s so simple to weed thru the garbage reported in this country to get at the truth. It’s stunning how few people are interested in doing this.  I just heard about someone I know, who I thought had a lot of money socked away.  It turns out he’s scrambling now to make ends meet.  This is someone who used to be a big corporate executive and I tried to convince him to unload his real estate and move into gold over 8 years ago…oh well, it is what it is…Have a great weekend everyone (Avete una grande fine settimane, ognuno)

Source

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Use the above link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of critically important factors at work during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by compromised central bankers and inept economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system, urgently pushed after the removed anchor of money to gold. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Many observers to the wild gyrations, deep contortions, extreme measures, and other bizarre activity in the government and banking arenas are suffering from severe confusion. The public is alarmed, even frightened, by the sequence of events, without much benefit of comprehension of what is happening or which clans are in control. The degree of deception hit a peak during the TARP Fund creation and disbursement, done behind private closed doors for the replenishment of sacred preferred stock, that bridge between corporate bonds and stock equity. The deception hit a very high pitch with the financial titan failures, the entire string of them. It has never stopped since. The economic data and promising forecasts (mere marketing group propaganda) featured Green Shoots, Jobless Recovery, and the totally vacant Second Half Recovery that is useful every initial six months to sway the ignorant masses. Just what is happening is difficult to describe succinctly. But the main description reads like an obituary. The most recent and visible distortion is not of price inflation, which has zoomed at 7% annually for a couple years, but rather the Institute of Supply Mgmt. The ISM index has somehow registered a slight increase from July to August, despite almost every single regional index faltering badly. See the careening Philly Fed, from plus 5.1 to minus 7.7 in the latest month. They ignore the weak components and present a distorted aggregate, much like retail sales.

The US banking sector died in September 2008. It has not acted like a credit distribution apparatus in two years. The US Federal Reserve has served almost the complete function, filling the gap like with the decaying commercial paper market. Its several dozen liquidity facilities testify to its urgent need to act as banking system substitute, since the real portion lies in the morgue. The major 100 banks in the US are almost without exception insolvent, and thus do not lend. Sure, they boast a positive book value, but only after given permission to use phony FASB accounting rules. They can declare their assets at any value they wish. In fact, on many debt securities, they actually declare unrealized losses as gains. See the Credit Value Adjustment scheme, an utter travesty and shameful practice mocked by accounting professors. The FDIC came out this week to announce the Q2 list of problem banks went from 775 in number to 829, from Q1. Hardly evidence of a recovery. The USEconomy suffers from a credit strangulation since the banking system at the upper levels is dead, simply stated. The main thrust of the limp activity is monetary creation, banker welfare, absurd programs, and war spending. The more money the clownish hapless awkward leaders throw at the problem, the more the Gold price will rise. Each quantum policy step lifts the potential Gold price another $1000 per ounce.

This article is an attempt to briefly describe what is happening to the United States, from an aerial perspective, regarding the foremost poorly told events, better description of critical event factors, the lost generation of industry, the official investment by the USGovt in profound failure, the confusion from broadening collectivism, the absence of a solution toward restructure and remedy, and what actual solution might include. The popular debate once centered on the banks too big to permit a failure, but that debate became distracted by the flow of events. Only liquidation of the biggest banks can enable a recovery, period!! Of course, the process is complicated, especially politically. Actually, it is more than political, since the big banks control the USGovt. The response reaction from gold & silver will give loud messages to systemic failure, as money is wasted, invested in failure, and directed to the elite troughs. One can argue that no remedy or restructure is even attempted!!

REAL STORY BEHIND FOUR FAILURES

The Bear Stearns episode was the prelude to the failure story, the opening act, the clue for the death of the US banking sector. Its story was a mere partial truth, one that avoided all the inner circle rivalries and hate relationships. The firm did not participate in the general rescue program for LongTerm Capital Mgmt in 1998. It was singled out for execution, a kill at a later date. The Bear Stearns failure was a murder execution for its long gold position and short USDollar position, if truth be told. Wall Street never enjoys or benefits from telling the truth. Deception is its calling card. The Gold price was prevented from finding a much higher legitimate value, from continued control after Bear Stearns was removed from the clique.

The American Intl Group episode was disguised from its true nature as a Goldman Sachs bailout. In fact, the record has been somewhat clearly told that the AIG nationalization enabled GSax to be first in line for credit default contract redemptions, at full price. They saved $11 billion in the nationalization and butting in line. There are advantages to acting as the USDept Treasury administrator. Many other big banks had favorable redemptions on similar insurance contracts. The wreckage of the entire US banking sector was thus covered up from the insurance perspective, preventing a credit derivative blowup. The Gold price did not react from a failure motive, as much as a perceived systemic risk motive. The over $100 billion in covered losses to AIG so far is just the beginning of investment in failure. The USGovt is managing the credit derivatives from under its rickety broken rotten wing. But Gold does react to the waste of money, the debasement of money, and not so much from inflation entering the system. That comes later.

The Fannie Mae episode was one best described as averting either a mortgage bond default or a severe jump in mortgage rates emanating from the sewage treatment plant. In pulling off the nationalization of the wretch, the Wall Street controllers thus placated a crucial angry mortgage creditor. China had been selling all summer long in 2008 its Fannie Mae and other GSE bonds. China forced the USGovt hand as they made it explicit from nationalization. Rumors had been flying in late 2007 and early 2008 that China was accumulating USAgency Mortgage Bonds as part of some contract toward colonization. No more! The USGovt guarantee was implicit but soon made more explicit. The $170 odd billion in covered losses so far is just the beginning of investment in failure. But Gold does react to the waste of money, the debasement of money, and not so much from inflation entering the system. That comes later.

Lehman Brothers was an unwilling sacrificial lamb for its prominence in the mortgage arena. They were an important player that got in the way. The Lehman killjob created a dustup distraction in which JPMorgan was funded $138 billion in a grand reload with USGovt money, to maintain its commodity stranglehold. They were running low on funds to defend the system and to keep America strong, the envy of the world, the beacon of hope. Also, Lehman owned a significant silver position that had gone out of control, in danger of being the object of a critical short covering event that would have rendered huge damage to JPMorgan. Therefore, JPMorgan took it over and assumed its responsibility. They drove the silver price down from $19 to $10 in the ensuing months, with no objection, criticism, or suspicion of impropriety from regulators, legal authorities, or anybody residing in South Manhattan. However, the Silver price returned to face the same $20 level, which it will easily overcome and penetrate in the next few months. Smart investors bought the silver offered at discounted price for several consecutive months.

INVESTMENT IN FAILURE

For vivid indications of failure, notice the slide into recession even after 20 months of near 0% official interest rate. The USFed has no more weapons except the Printing Pre$$, which it will reluctantly use, perhaps somewhat aware of the dire immediate consequences. Central bankers are soiling their skivvies, in utter fear. For vivid indications of failure, notice that the housing sector and commercial property sector do not respond to record low mortgage rates. The average 30-year mortgage rate across the land stands at 4.40%, silly low but uselessly low. Refinance is not an option, given the valuation declines in loan collateral. The ultimate problem is insolvency laced like cancer throughout the entire system, from housing, to households, to banks, to government fiscal situation, even to industry (long gone). The USFed cannot treat insolvency. Only liquidation can. The human toll has been great, from chronic joblessness, to mortgage delinquencies, to home foreclosures, to lost pensions, to vanished financial security. For vivid indications of failure, notice the 2.5% to 2.6% long bond yield in USTreasurys, the last bubble. The US bankers who have run the land for two decades have run out of asset bubbles to blow. Each growth period of 5 to 7 years has been driven by the next asset bubble in sequence, not industrial development or output. Money is being ruined at a rapid rate, and precious metals indicate the pace and severity. As the great bond bubble dissipates from whatever pinprick, the gold rally will move from quiet bullish to monster bullish, complete with a skyrocket event. In the next phase, do not be surprised to see the Gold price rise over $100 on a single day. The financial networks will be bug-eyed and speechless.

Plain language works best at this point. The USGovt, as demonstrated by its nationalizations, big bank rescues, grand aid packages (car industry), and support of extreme measures, has invested heavily in failure, fraud, and banker elite welfare otherwise called pillage. They also has invested in sacred wars at great cost. The USGovt has not invested much at all in business, jobs, family, and life. The flimsy shallow vacant home loan programs exemplify the lack of support and aid for the public. In fact, an argument can be made that the government and banking leadership (tightly twisted together) have contempt for the People. The current administration features a return of failed policy makers, as seen in Robert Rubin, the modern day Rasputin in control of puppet strings. His past failures qualified him for near total banking policy control. As a result, the public harbors growing resentment from the inequality of bailouts and benign neglect to households. The failure to individuals is stark with pink slips and job loss. As long as weekly jobless claims exceed 450 to 470 thousand, nobody will give much credence to any USGovt verbage about a recovery. Failure is in the wind.

GOLDEN RESPONSE TO FAILURE

The failure pertains to the US financial sector in its entirety, from banking system to credit market. The failure is exacerbated by wasted expenditures toward what are called rescues and stimulus, but is actually banker welfare payouts, their toxic bond redemption, and nationalization of failed entities. Worse, the key nationalized firms are laced with $trillion fraud. Fannie Mae remains the central clearing house for several $trillion fraud schemes. In the wake of failure has come round after round of badly spent funds. It is hard to call it money when it pours off the Printing Pre$$ without recourse, without disclosure, and without accountability. Naked bond shorting, failures to deliver bond sales, and extreme interest rate swap enforcement made for a witch’s brew of grand market interference, ruin, and fraud. A prevailing sentiment persists. The consensus lunatic misguided notion is that when the volume of stimulus and rescues is sufficiently higher than a certain threshold level, that recovery follows, especially after a certain period of time. Almost no thinking takes place. The leaders are simply throwing money at the problem and crisis, responding to the next critical focal points. Never has policy been so absent, misguided, and bereft of the thought process. We are witnessing a syndicate in survival mode, in a desperate quest to save the system they exploit so thoroughly.

In response, the Gold price potential rises as USGovt funds are wasted without any path to remedy or recovery. The extreme usage of the Printing Pre$$ in the next round of Quantitative Easing, dubbed QE2, will set up crippling explosions. Each round of stimulus or bank rescue or Dollar Swap Facility setup actually puts the potential Gold price another $1000 higher. The future years will see at least $3000 Gold price, all in time. The 1980 peak Gold price, adjusted by an accurate price inflation accounting, like the Shadow Govt Statistics series, is more like $7000 per ounce. My $3000 forecast figure is a conservative number. Anyone who disputes and challenges this forecast, must provide evidence that remedy, restructure, and reform are anywhere present in the current landscape. They are not. Money is being created and wasted at a colossal pace, and while it is wasted, the Gold price in increasingly debased US$ terms rises.

Favorable upcoming months for the Gold price are finally upon us, especially September. We are at its doorstep of a strong season. A major upward thrust is likely as a holiday present before January. The pattern is even stronger with silver. The month of September is especially strong, almost twice as much gusto packed into it as any other month, the next being December and January. In a five-month stretch, three of the 12 best months are lined up, directly ahead. Last year, the 2009 gold price jumped from $950 to $1200 between late August and end December. Expect something similar this year. Also, institutions like the JPMorgan monster queen might face a date with the guillotine in their silver trading desks. If the ultra-strong seasonality for silver does not catapult its price over $20 by January, it will be a big surprise.

SUPERIORITY OF GOLD AMONG COMMODITIES

Prepare for a breakout in the Gold price, fully forecasted, fully forewarned. A tremendous upleg move comes. The consolidation between the $1065 and $1250 prices has taken nine months. The range between $1175 and $1250 has been tighter in the last two months. A big move is indicated, as the seasons offer a firm wind from behind. Notice the MACD crossover, as moving averages are aligned nicely, but calmly, certainly forcefully. A global recognition of monetary system breakdown is in progress. The QE2 launch, complete with further ruinous debasement of money, is imminent. The unexpected effect that will take inept myopic central bankers off guard is the powerful rise in the Gold price. It foretells of the next powerful phase of the financial crisis that has been covered in detail in the Hat Trick Letter, gory detail. Dan Norcini, the gold, currency, and commodity analyst, put it so well. He said, “What we are witnessing is the death throes of a debt based monetary system, of which those presiding over it apparently have come to believe their own delusions. The US public is learning what our grandfathers learned as a result of the Great Depression. Debt is something to be avoided, not heaped up and accumulated… Yet, all of this is lost upon the monetary lords who have their noses so close to the ground sniffing out the scent that they cannot see that the path ahead leads off the edge of an abyss, from which there is no escape.”

The Gold & Silver charts are both bullish, but in different ways. Gold is lifting off a base, while silver has surged upward out of a pause pattern, as described last week. Distrust for the monetary system has gone global. Gold & Silver are accepted as reserve assets, the best safe haven not tied to counter-party debt risk. Watch the Gold/Oil Ratio, which is poised to rise noticeably. Gold is the commodity king, namely it is money. The worldwide recession will keep the crude oil price subdued until the USTreasury bubble pops. Then, at that time, several major commodity hedges will jump in price, rendering a cost shock to the USEconomy. It is broken to the core, broken at the foundation, broken from grotesque imbalances, broken from vast pervasive insolvency. An inflationary depression lies dead ahead! Notice the recognition of Gold, its distinction as the king of commodities. The usual accepted hedge against the USDollar in Wall Street and London accounts has traditionally been crude oil.

After the severe damage done to sovereign debt in Europe, a wave comes steeped in crisis. Governments erroneously believe that they can inflate their way out of the crisis that has roots firmly connected to debt inflation. This is folly, as they will learn. Notice the King Gold, which is out-performing crude oil. The Gold/Oil Ratio has turned up strongly since the spring months. Deflation Knuckleheads will find they made serious analytic errors, when they grouped King Gold with the commodities. What folly. Gold is money, and money is becoming scarce. The current monetary system is debt in denominated form. The ratio will rise toward 20:1 in the coming months. The USEconomy in struggle, clear deterioration, even possible collapse, will keep the energy prices down generally. The global monetary virus outbreak will lift the Gold price to the heavens.

FROZEN REACTION FROM POLICY

Much of the business sector is frozen. Executives and managers are frozen in inaction from inability to anticipate what comes next. The landscape of regulations and official programs is too rapid, unpredictable, and illogical. We see stupid stuff like Clunker Car Programs. We see disruptive stuff like the Health Care Program. We see unpredictable stuff like the Home Purchase Credit Program. We see uncertainty, like with the home tax credit return. The biggest obstacle to business seems to be the Health Program monstrosity. It forces higher costs upon businesses while officials claim the exact opposite. Nowhere is the confusion greater than the housing and mortgage finance markets. Investors are front running the bond trade, with anticipation of USGovt monetization of more USTreasury Bonds and more USAgency Mortgage Bonds. The prospect of QE2 has brought about a perception that lower mortgage rates could come, and continue to come. The business sector cannot readily hire in this uncertain illogical environment in flux, where leadership is constantly being questioned. The home buyer demand was drawn forward, leaving a late summer and autumn vacuum. See the 27% decline in existing July home sales. The investment community is buying the USGovt guaranteed bonds, ahead of the QE2 launch. Investment in business equipment and capital formation is nearly non-existent. The USEconomy is frozen by erratic policy. In fact, the Gross Domestic Product is negative, once 3% is subtracted from the official downward revised 1.6% growth in 2Q2010. The subtraction is required for entrance into the world of reality, where hedonic and other productivity fudges must be removed.

A GENERATION OF LOST INDUSTRY

This is not a lost decade upcoming. The United States has suffered an entire generation of lost industry from its systematic dismantling, forfeit, and abandonment. The migration of industry began with Japan and the Pacific Rim in the 1980 decade. It continued in the 1990 decade, along with the NAFTA experiment with Mexico. Those border factories were removed with the advent of China. It culminated in the 2000 decade, with the death blow from the Chinese industrial expansion, often dubbed the Low Cost Solution. The entire generation, especially since the Chinese climax, replaced US factory income with service sector income, which included the finance sector from mortgage processing, credit derivatives, leveraged structured finance, and other financial engineering vehicles & structures. The emphasis on clean industry and sophisticated economical development was nothing more than a deceptive billboard to conceal the near total devotion to and dependence upon inflation for economic growth, which backfired and killed the system. The financial engineering offered no legitimate advancement to the society, and certainly not to the USEconomy, except the automatic teller machine, an observation made by former USFed Chairman Paul Volcker. His tenure was ended by the way, as a result of vicious rumors of a cancer debilitation, completely false stories spread by proponents of Alan Greenspan, a syndicate priest of high order. The Greenspan Era justified the virtues of risk offloaded in credit securities, hailed the sophistication of the system, and heaped praise upon each other’s priests, right before the system collapsed from a flimsy and fraudulent foundation, leveraged inflation engines, and absent industry.

THE SOLUTION IS SIMPLE

The secret to a legitimate solution is easy. The big banks must write down their credit portfolios, and accept deep losses. If that results in liquidation, so be it!! Accounting fraud is not a substitute for restructure. Nor is dispatching badly impaired assets to the USFed, whose by all accounts is a Bad Bank Repository. Debate continues on the need to create a bad bank for dead assets, when the USFed is precisely that bank. Toxic assets held by the big banks must be liquidated. The phony propped credit markets must be permitted to fail, and to find proper value via equilibrium processes. Nowhere is equilibrium sought, as everywhere it is avoided. The USGovt should exit and quit the game of stimulus, intervention, and market distortion. The USGovt is delaying the inevitable. The financial markets should seek their bottoms for clearing supply. The bank leaders must be liquidated, removed from power, and face some prosecution. The Too Big To Fail premise must be rejected. The Zombie Big Banks threaten the entire system. If truth be told, they control the leadership of the USGovt itself. Dead entities control the USGovt, lodged in a stranglehold!!

CONSTIPATION WHEN NO LIQUIDATION

This is remarkably simple economics analysis. Without substantial liquidation of the badly impaired assets held in tremendous volume within the big banks, further credit constipation will be the mainstay fixture. That asset clog includes the vast bank owned properties from home foreclosures. The REO count rises about 50 thousand homes per month, a figure roughly double from the January level. Without major liquidation initiatives, expect continued Zombie Big Banks cluttering space. Without major liquidation initiatives, expect continued demands from the Zombies for large tracts of money. Without major liquidation initiatives, expect continued $trillion fraud schemes with Fannie Mae as nexus. Without major liquidation initiatives, expect escalated growth of the USTreasury Bond bubble. In plain terms, the economic landscape and credit system cannot recover without the plowing under of the Big Banks. However, they control the USGovt, its finance ministry in the USDept Treasury, and the USDollar Printing Pre$$ itself. The big banks will NOT order their own death warrant, and face the financial gallows. To think otherwise, even for the national good, is folly. It is like asking a heavily armed bank thief in the middle of a crowded lobby, holding a few dozen hostages, to shoot himself in the head instead, for the good of the people. The credit engines of the USEconomy will not fire much at all unless the big banks are liquidated, or at least much of their balance sheets is liquidated. That would expose their deep insolvency and potentially lead to their failure. A run on those banks by depositors, and a ruinous sale of their corporate bonds by investors, would ensure the big banks death. They belong in the morgue, for the national good. Capitalism demands their plowing under to unleash hidden potential.

The ball & chain dragging down and keeping down the big banks is the housing market. The downward force of gravity is visible in the falling home prices. The deteriorating USEconomy still pulls down the monetary platform, as the credit portfolios are directly attached to the ball & chain. The USEconomy was given the appearance of growth from the housing bubble between years 2002 and 2006. Its asset bubble formed a foundation for the majority of the USEconomy, and whose accompanying mortgage finance bubble provided the liquidity to the system. In fact, the entire boom & bust served as vivid indisputable evidence that the home is not a tangible asset, but rather a financial asset, an abused asset. The mortgage foreclosure process is the final proof. The true tangible assets are crude oil and precious metals. Other commodities will be sacrificed in wholesale form in order to purchase energy and precious metals. Energy is needed for commercial survival, while gold is needed as bonafide safe haven for money.

GOVT DILEMMA

The USGovt finds itself managing a mangled menagerie of frozen fixtures, most of which are totally broken. It is the great investor in failure and fraud. Its actions cover up the fraud, from policy taken in full collusion. Should the leaders give orders that result in formal suicide ceremony of the big banks, a US version of harikari? Should the props be removed and force a USTreasury default? A default will occur anyway in my view, since it is only delayed. The USTreasury default will come as a result of trade war isolation, USDollar vicious cycles in USGovt deficit monetization, a massive sudden USDollar devaluation, or the USFed resignation from its Congressional contract amidst $1 trillion losses. Expect all the above in combination, each linked. The USFed already has compiled close to half a $1 trillion loss on its balance sheet.

A grand game of chicken by the USGovt and Wall Street control panel is taking place. All official plans are predicated upon an economic recovery in the United States. A great fan blows fake acidic money into the bankers trough, but the monetary system erodes as its pillars suffer continued gradual deep damage. The new debt, delivered as fresh paper, acts like acid on the capital base of the entire USEconomy. As described in previous articles, the United States possesses the worst economists in the world. They have no concept of capital formation, no concept of what constitutes money, no concept of legitimate income, and no willingness to liquidate the toxic assets that prevent a restructure and recovery. The big hairball in the system is the big banks. The American public cannot survive on a limited credit diet due to big bank hairballs clogging the system.

HEIGHTENED RISK OF USTREASURY BUBBLE

A growing risk is palpable of migration away from USTBonds. It could come very soon. After the housing & mortgage twin bubbles and consequent bust, the last asset bubble has a little more ways to go. The last asset bubble is the USTreasury Bond, the entire complex. In fact, the bubble extends to the Fannie Mae bonds as well, since under USGovt guarantee. Perhaps a 2.0% long bond yield will be the sentinel signal to abandon and sell, setting up a bond bust. An extreme risk is present for the next important event to frighten the horses that prop USTBonds. What will be the rattlesnake in the sand? Foreign creditor sales in volume? A ramped up trade war? Harsh criticism for improper USDollar printing in monetization schemes, finally in the open? Recognition of a $1 trillion tab in war spending? A river of hyper-inflation is lodged in the USTBond dam, whose walls are nothing more than paper reeds held together by bad verbal glue, uttered by bank leaders who increasingly lack credibility.

Witness the failed central bank franchise system, and USFed Chairman Bernanke without any tools left. Witness the systemic failure of the USEconomy (and Mexico too). All USFed recovery scenarios depend upon a USEconomic recovery, which itself is completely dependent upon a US housing market recovery and a US banking system recovery. No recovery will come, since no Big Bank liquidation will be permitted. Therefore the USFed will walk the pirate plank to a great death of insolvency and ruin, which will spawn a USTreasury default, my forecast made two years ago. It is more certain than ever before. The safe haven is gold & silver. The USTreasury Bond grand dissipation, the long bust process, will catapult the Gold price toward $3000, and suddenly. The gold community will find great amusement in watching the reaction to the naysayers and critics, except the world will change into something hardly recognizable. It will turn into an ugly version of Mad Max, the movie. Shortages and crises will abound. Chaos will reign. A form of darkness will befall the earth.

THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.

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Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting.   He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at  www.GoldenJackass.com. For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at  JimWillieCB@aol.com