Inflation

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Risk is Off

[ed: ‘Risk Off’ might seem obvious this morning, but NFTRH has been highlighting acute risk in the US stock market since leading indicators – including a sentiment extreme exactly opposite to the contrarian bullish extreme of 1 year ago – flashed warning signals weeks ago.  From NFTRH 244′s opening segment… I don’t know how to put it … Continue reading

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QE ‘Taper’ to T Bond ‘Carry Trade’ – More Thoughts

The following is the opening segment to this week’s premium letter, NFTRH 242.  The balance of #242 went on to discuss the technical status of US and global stock markets, key commodities, the current status of ‘inflation expectations’, precious metals and currencies; all in detail. Taper to Carry Last week we introduced the theoretical ‘taper to … Continue reading

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When Will Gold Bull Resume?

While Gold has seen a decent rebound, Silver and the mining shares (the more speculative side of the complex) have failed to sustain any rebound despite tremendously supportive sentiment amid an extreme oversold condition. Is the failure to rebound bearish? Not really. This is a sector that is completely sold out but there are yet … Continue reading

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The case against deflation

Regular readers will know I am in the inflation, possibly hyperinflation camp; but there are those that think the future is more likely to be deflationary. In the main this is the view of neoclassical economists, Keynesians and monetarists, who generally foresee a 1930s-style slump unless the economy is stimulated out of it.

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Macro Sleight of Hand is Working, for Now

Right in plain site, the Federal Reserve is doing this to the US money supply. It is a hockey stick with the blade pointing up, but will one day turn into a big, bloated chicken and come home to roost. The Fed’s global counterparts continue apace with inflation as well. Meanwhile, economic data like M2′s … Continue reading

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Gold & Silver as Macro Sign Post

The last week has been a fright fest for the gold “community”.  But these are the financial markets, not a community.  There is a world outside of what ever is going on in gold and silver.  A macro economic backdrop filled with entwined and correlated assets and markets all trying to form a message when … Continue reading

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