As the Debt Ceiling Kabuki Dance Starts Anew…

Inflation spigots are open and running 24/7…

base.total

 

and an economy that needs to purge the excesses keeps resisting the inflation…

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Within this, we are in a phase where policy makers appear effective because at the margins the economy is creeping toward improvement.  But in the big picture?

lind

We see a continuum of 1-2% growth in the variables that lead the economy, which appears to be ‘just right’, like Goldilocks’ porridge.  So we are back on trend and I guess everybody’s happy.

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Well, don’t let manufacturing payrolls cause undue concern.  Automation is THING 1 in manufacturing today.  I know this because I lived it for a few decades.  Employment must be reduced and maximized for reasons of productivity.

payrolls

Overall Payrolls are coming back on trend, with changes in full/part time dynamics.  But policy has been working toward improvement.

profits.tbills.debt

See how hard policy is working?  ZIRP keeps T Bills pinned with free money available to banks.  Corporate profits are rising and so is the debt required to sustain the whole thing.

So, do you think there is any question about what the politicians will end up doing in this year’s edition of the Debt Ceiling Kabuki Dance?  Politicians are politicians after all.

Graphs courtesy of St. Louis Fed & SlopeCharts.

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