Precious Metals have enjoyed their best rally since the spring but are approaching significant resistance levels.   After trading as high as $1791, Gold has fallen back to $1740.   The weekly and monthly charts show stiff resistance in the $1780 to $1820 zone.   The daily chart below shows a confluence of resistance … Continue reading “Gold and Gold Stocks Approach Resistance”

The evidence argues that the cyclical bear market in precious metals is likely over.   We will only know for certain once prices are much higher. Such is the reality of markets. Therefore we need to rely on the weight of the evidence.   The evidence was already building even before prices turned. We noted … Continue reading “They Don’t Ring a Bell at Bottoms”

  Last week I wrote about the numerous positive divergences building in precious metals. On a near-term basis, Gold looks the worst of the group. But that can be a good thing.   Taking a step back, today I am writing about the ingredients for major bottoms in Gold and how the present compares to … Continue reading “Ingredients for Major Bottom in Gold”

  Positive divergences within a downtrend are important because they can precede a bottom and trend reversal. Our most recent editorial noted some positive divergences in the gold market.   One should never make much of one trading day, but the ongoing positive divergences in the precious metals sector and Friday’s action raise the odds … Continue reading “Positive Divergences Abound in Precious Metals”

Although precious metals have rebounded, some consternation remains that they could be headed much lower before a major bottom.   However, when one considers the fundamental backdrop, one will realize that a major turn is soon at hand.   At the end of September, the S&P 500 closed below its 40-month moving average. Over the … Continue reading “Major Catalysts Building for Gold”

In this article, I will briefly examine Gold’s technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment to hazard a guess at when and where the major turn will be.   It is vital to consider all three tools to build a case.   On the fundamental front, we are well aware that precious metals have historically bottomed around the … Continue reading “When and Where Will Gold Bottom?”

  Gold is breaking down technically. There’s no denying it.   Gold has already closed at a fresh 52-week and 2-year low in daily and weekly terms. It needs to close above $1715 at the end of the month to negate a monthly breakdown.   However, recent weakness has not been confirmed by similar markets. … Continue reading “Gold Breaking Down, But Multiple Non-Confirmations”

  It has been a very rough time for precious metals. In recent months they have endured another terrible selloff that feels like a combination of 2013 and 2008.   However, think about how they “looked” technically before major bottoms, like during 2000, 2008, and late 2015. They also looked terrible at other important lows … Continue reading “Gold Stocks Perform Best After They Look Their Worst”

  One reason the history of markets is fascinating is that we can glean clues about the future. History does not always repeat itself, but it often rhymes.   For precious metals, the last six years lack a strong comparison.   There has not been a similar period in which the Gold price rallied back … Continue reading “The Best Historical Comparison for Gold & Silver”

  Regular readers by now are familiar with Gold’s fundamental drivers and the influence of the stock market.    Falling and or negative real interest rates are the fundamental driver for Gold and are usually a byproduct of a weak stock market and economic recession.    However, today I want to focus on the larger … Continue reading “Understanding the Gold Cycle”