Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold?

Although most of the precious metals sector has trended lower in recent months, Gold has held up well. It and the other, weaker components of precious metals got a boost on Monday when China retaliated with tariffs of its own. There has been little follow through since. This begs the question, will a trade war … Continue reading “Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold?”

Waiting for Double Bottom Support in Gold Stocks

Several weeks ago we wrote about the downside risk in the gold stocks. After the various gold stock indices formed distribution-type tops, the subsequent selling has been swift. Miners have plunged through moving averages and short-term breadth indicators quickly reached oversold extremes. While the gold stocks are oversold, it could be a little while before … Continue reading “Waiting for Double Bottom Support in Gold Stocks”

Why US Dollar Strength is Long Term Catalyst for Gold

As we know, Gold and the US Dollar have an inverse relationship. Gold is priced in US Dollars and the drivers of each are similar (from an inverse point of view). Over long-term periods both trend in the same direction but the magnitude of the moves can vary and be quite different. The standard inverse … Continue reading “Why US Dollar Strength is Long Term Catalyst for Gold”

Can Gold Rise Without a Rate Cut?

The downside potential in precious metals discussed last week is playing out as Gold and gold stocks have broken down technically. The global economy appears to be firming and that is evidenced by a sustained rebound in global equity markets. As a result, the potential for a rate cut which pushed precious metals higher is … Continue reading “Can Gold Rise Without a Rate Cut?”

This Leading Indicator Looks Bullish for Gold

    There are more than a handful of things I can cite as leading indicators for the Gold price. Ratios such as Gold against the stock market and Gold against foreign currencies are generally good leading indicators. The gold stocks and Silver can function as leading indicators at times. Yhe yield curve and bonds … Continue reading “This Leading Indicator Looks Bullish for Gold”

Gold Fundamentals Continue to Improve

    Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Precious Metals disappointed again. The miners were leading the metals but the metals broke down from bear flag patterns and that took the miners lower, suggesting an interim top is in place. The technicals suggest weakness could be ahead for the sector but the fundamentals are … Continue reading “Gold Fundamentals Continue to Improve”

Falling Yields a Catalyst for The Catalyst

  Since last spring we’ve written over and over again about a Fed rate cut being the catalyst for a bull move in gold stocks. The history is almost bulletproof. Many lows in gold stocks over the past 60 years coincided with the end of rate hikes. At present the Federal Reserve is in pause … Continue reading “Falling Yields a Catalyst for The Catalyst”

Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks

    In recent weeks we noted the bullish outlook for the stock market. Friday the S&P 500 as well as ACWX (global equity ETF ex US stocks) closed above resistance and made higher highs. Not surprisingly, as US and global equities have avoided a bear market (for the time being), precious metals have weakened. … Continue reading “Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks”

3 Things That Don’t Affect Price of Gold

    It’s important to understand Gold’s fundamentals as it will help us confirm a new bull market. To this point, Gold’s rallies have failed to make higher highs and higher lows because, although there has been improvement in fundamentals, the fundamentals have not turned bullish yet. The technical trigger will be Gold and gold … Continue reading “3 Things That Don’t Affect Price of Gold”

Gold and Gold Stocks Stop Short of Bull Market, Again

    The recent rally showed quite a bit of promise. Gold stocks surged past their long-term moving averages while breadth indicators surpassed all prior bear market peaks (excluding 2016). 71% of the HUI and 81% of GDXJ closed above the 200-day moving average. GDX and GDXJ looked to be on their way to $25 … Continue reading “Gold and Gold Stocks Stop Short of Bull Market, Again”

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