Editorials

Over the past 100 years, there have been seven bear markets or crashes of 35% or higher. After or during every decline but one, the gold stocks enjoyed outstanding performance. It is essential to understand the underlying fundamental catalyst. A crash and recession leads to aggressive rate cuts and falling real interest rates, which in … Continue reading

The historic action of the precious metals sector over the past few weeks has continued. The strong recovery in GDX, GDXJ, and Silver has potentially invalidated the technical breakdown that occurred during the crash. It appears to be a failed breakdown. Furthermore, Gold was looking vulnerable on the weekly, and monthly chart yet was able … Continue reading

The past three weeks have been historic.  The stock market experienced its fastest 30% drop in history. GDXJ crashed by 50% within two weeks! We have never experienced anything like this in our sector. The speed of the crash was worse than in 2008.  This has been akin to a 19th-century style panic. I was … Continue reading

It has been a heck of a run for Gold since the Federal Reserve shifted policy.  Before the Fed’s last rate hike in December 2018, Gold was trading around $1200/oz. Since then it has climbed nearly $500/oz or roughly 40%. It broke out to a 6-year high and has made many all-time highs against most … Continue reading

To underscore the volatility of this past week, consider the price action in Silver.  Silver, days ago, had a chance to make its highest monthly close since October 2016. That is well over three years ago. Silver closed the week and the month at its lowest levels in six months. One week, precious metals (specifically … Continue reading

Last week, I covered the historical trajectory of the gold stocks and how today compares to the early 1960s.  The late 2015 to early 2016 period marked one of the three best buying opportunities of the past 100 years (from a secular standpoint), and gold stocks are in position for sensational performance over the next … Continue reading

When I updated my book late last year (which you can get at my website for free), I changed my view of the big picture outlook and the best historical comparison for precious metals.  From both an economic and macro-market perspective, everything points to the early 1960s.  This was a period of low interest rates, … Continue reading

Last week we noted that the risks in precious metals were primarily technical.  Sentiment and technicals urge caution over the short-term.  The net speculative position in Gold has remained high for months while the 21-day daily sentiment index (DSI) hit 81%. Since the sector peak five months ago, Silver and the gold stocks have corrected … Continue reading

Gold cannot lose this year. Let me explain. The most bearish points for Gold (aside from a blowoff in inflation) are when an economic recovery gains traction or when the Fed raises rates to combat inflation. All three scenarios entail stable or rising real interest rates and, therefore, no investment demand for Gold. At present, … Continue reading

The precious metals sector remains in a correction, and as long as the 200-day moving averages hold, a bullish consolidation that began last September. Sure, Gold made a new high and is still holding around the previous high, but the rest of the sector has not confirmed that strength. When Gold is outperforming Silver and … Continue reading