Editorials

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No Change in Outlook for Gold & Silver

With each passing rally hope has bloomed that the bear market in precious metals may be over. The long and deep “forever bear” has to end but it hasn’t yet. Under the surface, the bear market is getting weaker and Gold is growing stronger. It’s showing strength against foreign currencies and has broken its downtrend … Continue reading

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Gold Could Lose Safe-Haven Bid as Equities Rebound

Gold and Silver have held up well during the recent selloff in equities. From December 28 through Wednesday the broad NYSE lost 10.4% while the S&P 500 lost 9.6%. Precious Metals gained strength during that period. Gold advanced 3.0% while Silver gained 1.7%. Gold relative to the NYSE broke its downtrend and touched an 11-month … Continue reading

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Jeff Gundlach: Gold to Spike 30% to $1400

Jeff Gundlach is predicting Gold could spike this year. I agree with him but I’m not sure Gold has bottomed. It could drop below $1000/oz and test strong support around $970/oz or even quarterly support at $930/oz. If Gold is going to make a strong rebound in line with historical rebounds then how much could it … Continue reading

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Silver & Gold Stocks Dangerously Close to Breakdown

The fledgling rebound in the precious metals complex suddenly reversed course. Since the intraday peak last Thursday, gold stocks (GDX and GDXJ) declined about 13% while Gold lost $1100/oz and today (Thursday) $1080/oz. Silver, which did not mount much of a rebound to begin with remains mired below $13/oz. Gold is showing increasing relative strength … Continue reading

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Gold to Equities Ratios Have Bottomed

It has been a strong start to 2016 in precious metals, today notwithstanding. Gold was able to break above daily resistance at $1080 to $1090 while miners climbed higher until Friday’s reversal. Rather than focus on the nominal gains I want to turn our attention to Gold’s performance against other markets and asset classes. It … Continue reading

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2016 Outlook for Precious Metals

The precious metals sector will close 2015 entrenched in a seemingly forever bear market. Most of the sector has been in a bear market for over four and a half years. Gold’s bear market will reach four and a half years in a few months. Meanwhile the US Dollar’s bull market remains strong and is … Continue reading

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Gold Stocks Remain in Position to Rebound

The Fed rate hike has come and gone while the precious metals sector has continued to whipsaw traders day after day. The initial reaction was very positive. However, that completely reversed course on Thursday with Gold threatening to move to a new low and gold miners threatening to test recent support. Friday’s strength continued the … Continue reading

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US Dollar Forecast

A few days ago we wrote about the potential effects of a Fed rate hike on precious metals. After consulting history we concluded that the rate hike would be immediately bullish for precious metals but subsequently bearish. The main reason is because when the Fed started a new cycle of increases during an already established bull market … Continue reading

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The Effect of a Fed Rate Hike on Precious Metals

The markets have for the most part already priced in a Fed rate hike which is expected next week. Yesterday fed funds futures indicated an 80% chance of a rate hike. It would be the first hike in roughly 9 years. The Fed last began a new hiking cycle in 2004. We consult history to … Continue reading

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