Video Update

Contrary to popular opinion, the gold stocks are not priced for $1600 Gold. They are priced for the same margins they had at $1600 Gold. Gold stocks performance against Gold reflects their margins and profitability, which has declined materially over the last 18 months. The gold stocks relative to Gold declined massively over the last … Continue reading

Gold needs a weekly and monthly close above $1900 for a breakout. A breakout is when a market clears a critical resistance level and proceeds to launch higher. The breakout is the start of the move. We highlight 3 indicators that will confirm a breakout in Gold and a new bull run in Gold and … Continue reading

Gold has broken out from trendline resistance but has more significant resistance levels to overcome for a sustained advance. Most notably, breaking above $1900 on a weekly and monthly basis is the key to a real breakout. Until then, $1900 is major resistance. Part of this move is driven by war worries. That is unsustainable … Continue reading

Gold & Silver remain in a correction. Recent price action and the history of selloffs before the first rate hike suggest more downside. However, history suggests a major bottom is quite possible this spring as well as a rebound in the metals for the bulk of 2022. Gold has not been in a real bull … Continue reading

The bond market and the yield curve holds the cards for Gold, after the stock market crash. The yield curve is diving towards 0. When it nears 0, the Fed will stop hiking and turn to rate cuts. Real interest rates peak and decline when the Fed stops hiking. Gold & gold stocks will bottom … Continue reading

Interestingly, over the past six years Gold & Silver have not been correlated to rising inflation expectations. They have appeared to lead inflation expectations by several months. Recent increases in inflation expectations have led to rising real interest rates, which is bearish for Gold & Silver. The last time inflation expectations peaked and rolled over … Continue reading

Real yields have broken out to a new 52-week high. The market has priced in 4 rate hikes in 2022. Long-term yields have risen. The dollar is near its recent high. All of this and Gold has held strong and pushed higher. It is very bullish when a market ignores bad news. The key technical … Continue reading

Cycles analysis is popular but it’s subjective and therefore not actionable. There are two recent popular cycles that failed in recent years. Moreover, with respect to Gold’s 8-year cycle, it was not helpful during the bull market in the 2000s nor the 1970s. I sketch out 3 potential scenarios for Gold and in each scenario … Continue reading

In this video we analyze Gold’s past performance during Fed rate hike cycles. Gold typically rebounds after the start of the cycle. If there is increasing inflation, then Gold can continue to trend higher as it did in the 1970s and also the mid 2000s. Most recently, the end of the cycle has been a … Continue reading

Nearly everyone looks at daily and weekly charts. Some people look at monthly charts. No one ever follows the quarterly charts. Gold just closed the quarter and the month. We evaluate both the monthly and quarterly charts for Gold & Silver. The quarterly charts reveal that Silver faces very stiff resistance at $26.60. Gold has … Continue reading