Saturday evening we published and sent a 34-page update to subscribers. In this update we highlighted the downside risk in the sector and the potential for imminent declines. We have been bearish and cautious for a few months (though we called the May bounce) but Gold has trended higher and some miners have held up quite well. In our view, the present setup could lead to losses in the coming weeks.
The outlook for Gold beyond the next few months will depend on the Fed hike cycle and its end. If miners get really oversold in the next month then it would lead to a good bounce. But the bounce won’t be sustained if the Fed hikes in September and December. There are some similarities to the Fed cycle in 1999-2001 and the cycle now. In short, the next significant low in precious metals could be around the time of their last hike for this cycle. Will it be June? September? December? Right now, the Gold market is hinting it probably isn’t June.
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