Deflation

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A Potential Catalyst for Precious Metals

Precious Metals continue to be in a long bottoming process that began last summer. Though many quality juniors have already bottomed and while GDX, GDXJ and SIL probably won’t see new lows, the broad sector as a whole is struggling to push out of this long bottoming process. Traders always say price is all that … Continue reading

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Interview with Alternative Investors Hangout

In this interview we comment on the bottoming process in precious metals as well as the potential topping process going on in the stock market and the Nasdaq.  

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Inflation is a Contrarian Bet

Deflation is the consensus but inflation is the contrarian bet and breaking to the upside…

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Market Indicators in a Transformed System

We have used the ‘continuum’ (monthly chart of the 30 year yield) for years now to define tops in inflation expectations (red arrows at or around the EMA 100) and tops in deflationary fears (green arrows). 30 yr yield & 30 yr – 2 yr spread With the help of a MACD cross over (not … Continue reading

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The deflationist error

Many people believe there is a significant risk that the Irving Fisher debt-deflation theory of great depressions is still an economic threat today.

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Risk is Off

[ed: ‘Risk Off’ might seem obvious this morning, but NFTRH has been highlighting acute risk in the US stock market since leading indicators – including a sentiment extreme exactly opposite to the contrarian bullish extreme of 1 year ago – flashed warning signals weeks ago.  From NFTRH 244′s opening segment… I don’t know how to put it … Continue reading

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The case against deflation

Regular readers will know I am in the inflation, possibly hyperinflation camp; but there are those that think the future is more likely to be deflationary. In the main this is the view of neoclassical economists, Keynesians and monetarists, who generally foresee a 1930s-style slump unless the economy is stimulated out of it.

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Macro Sleight of Hand is Working, for Now

Right in plain site, the Federal Reserve is doing this to the US money supply. It is a hockey stick with the blade pointing up, but will one day turn into a big, bloated chicken and come home to roost. The Fed’s global counterparts continue apace with inflation as well. Meanwhile, economic data like M2′s … Continue reading

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Is Gold as an Investment Finished?

Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 235: Is Gold as an Investment Finished? Before delving deeper into that question, perhaps we should see what the mainstream media thinks.  In fairness to the MSM, we note there are plenty of articles on both sides of the debate.  Yet there has been … Continue reading

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Deflationary Collapse In Action

In the modern fiat world, a deflationary-style stock market collapse isn’t supposed to happen. And yet that is exactly what Greece has already experienced and I don’t think it’s over yet. Here’s a modified chart any real bear has seen before: the first half of the 1929-1932 Dow Jones Industrial Average stock market bear, … Continue reading

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