Last week we projected 5% to 10% downside in the gold stocks. Well, not to butter my own bread but GDX and GDXJ both lost 9% on the week. That being said, I believed that the weakness would be limited and miners could rebound to new highs in September. While that possibility remains, there is a chance this correction could go a bit deeper and perhaps last longer.
The weekly candle charts below show that the miners are correcting after failing to break into a “thin zone” of resistance. GDX has broken below its July lows and corrected as much as 16%. It has support at $25-$26 and that includes the Brexit gap. Also, the 38% retracement of its entire rebound is just below $25. Meanwhile, GDXJ has yet to break its July low in the $43s. It has corrected as much as 17% but could end up testing $39-$41. The 38% retracement of its entire rebound is a hair below $39.
Whether the correction lasts longer or evolves into a long consolidation, precious metals will remain in a bull market. It is hard to argue against the chart below. We plot Gold, Silver, GDX and GDXJ along with the 400-day moving average which is an excellent indicator of the primary trend. The sector sits comfortably above the 400-day moving averages which are sloping upward for the first time in years.
While we expected this correction, we did not anticipate there would be a chance for a larger correction. If you believe we are in a new bull market, as I do, then the path to financial success is buying and holding and buying weakness. (Our guidance for selling, we’ll get to another time). If I were holding too much cash or missed the epic rebound, I would be taking advantage of further weakness. Buying 20% to 25% weakness in a bull market (especially one that is only months old) will likely payoff in the long run. For professional guidance in riding the uptrend in Gold, consider learning more about our premium service including our favorite junior miners which we expect to outperform in the second half of 2016.
Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA