HUI Gold Bugs Index Symmetry

There is a growing presence out there talking about a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders (IH&S) on the HUI, which NFTRH has had going since mid-late last year.  Below is a simple view of it, with last week’s ‘Week 2 down’ making perfect sense (symmetrically speaking) with ‘Weeks 1 & 2 up’.   NFTRH subscribers … Continue reading “HUI Gold Bugs Index Symmetry”


Gold’s Macro Fundamentals

Excerpted from the 31 page NFTRH 283 (dated 3.23.14), which also thoroughly analyzed the precious metals and several other markets from a technical standpoint. This spike in short-term yields (2-year shown) is what harpooned gold last week and finally got it under control.   More importantly, this spike in the 2-year vs. the 30-year really … Continue reading “Gold’s Macro Fundamentals”


A Lender Carry Trade; an Old Theme Revisited

March 16, 2014Inflationbanks, business lending, carry trade, inflation


Gold’s Grinding Message

Precious metals boosters will see gold’s nominal price break upward and probably get excited.  They will marshal the troops for what could one day turn out to be a full fledged tout, as if the 40% decline of the last 2.5 years had never happened. But it is gold’s ratios to positively correlated assets that … Continue reading “Gold’s Grinding Message”


Precious Metals Grind Out a New Trend

Gold is Monetary Value We preface the post with a statement that has not changed since I began public writing nearly 10 years ago:  Gold is not about price; gold is about value.  This point was hammered home to me 11 years ago by a person who had much influence upon my viewpoint toward the financial … Continue reading “Precious Metals Grind Out a New Trend”


Gold Mining is Counter Cyclical

The following is the opening segment of this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 276: Somewhere along the road from the 2000 bottom in gold stocks to the 2008 flame out of inflationary hysteria, the gold stock sector went from counter cyclical first mover to ‘inflation trade’ also ran.  Gold stocks put in a secular … Continue reading “Gold Mining is Counter Cyclical”


Precious Metals: Risk Management to Opportunity

What Has Been A solid 2.5 years of risk management (to varying degrees) has been required of precious metals investors.  It was most intensely required after the announcement of QE3, when the net commercial short position in silver began a relentless march toward a very bearish alignment in late 2012 and then the HUI Gold … Continue reading “Precious Metals: Risk Management to Opportunity”


Taper

It’s ‘taper’ talk time again and here is a post that is only too happy to join the cacophony… Dear Federal Reserve, please signal what would be at least a symbolic gesture to the market and pretend to tighten policy by beginning a tapering of long-term bond buying.  We know inflation is being promoted via … Continue reading “Taper”


Closing the 2008 Gap

A disclaimer:  I am long and/or trading several regular ‘bull stocks’ (as well as short a couple).  Don’t interpret the sober message below as a ‘sell your stocks right now!’ style bearish warning.  Indeed, after an expected choppy start to December I think more bull market mania, errr… rally, could still be ahead.  But it … Continue reading “Closing the 2008 Gap”


Gold Stocks: ‘W’ or IHS?

The weekly chart of the HUI Gold Bugs index asks a question we have been reviewing in NFTRH for some time now; is the bottoming situation implied by the up-triggered weekly MACD (and confirming TRIX) a ‘W’ bottom in the making that saw its low at 206?  Or is it an Inverted Head & Shoulders (IHS), that … Continue reading “Gold Stocks: ‘W’ or IHS?”


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