Gary Tanashian

As the Cyprus drama and other macro events play out and distort normal macro economic signals to varying degrees in the short-term, let’s review the ‘real price’ of counter-cyclical gold vs. the cyclical industrial metals: Au-GYX Ratio, daily chart Au-GYX bottomed hard in February, MACD sported a positive divergence and now the ratio has turned … Continue reading

As human beings we try to intellectualize and get to the bottom of things.  We seek to find meaning in everything.  There must be a reason for what is happening at any given time. Take for example the Dow’s stellar performance and gold’s lousy performance even as monetary policy has gone reckless on a global scale.  This … Continue reading

We have been reviewing different versions of this chart in NFTRH over the last several weeks as the S&P 500 approaches a long-standing target of 1550+.  Today it looks like that target will be hit and exceeded with ease, but last summer and right through the Fiscal Cliff nonsense in December, very few were willing to entertain … Continue reading

Source: BIIWII If you are a speculator, the extreme situations currently in play in the broad stock market (95% of the way to a potential ‘triple top’ scenario price-wise, and 80+% of the way time-wise) and the gold market (impulsive price drops amid growing concerns that the bull is dead despite rising money supply data) … Continue reading

May, 2012: “Gary = Dumb Investor”, which was a memorable comment response (among many) to the SeekingAlpha version of this bullish article: Dumb Money Sold in May and Went Away Presently, I am an “idiot” and a “doomer” for being ‘risk vs. reward’ bearish on the US markets. Excerpted from NFTRH 225: The Great Rotation … Continue reading

To once again quote the man I respected more than any other market professional I have come in contact with, [a late friend], we will list “just the facts” in order to define a complicated, yet very interesting period in time. Stock sentiment was at an extreme over-bearish level by what Sentimtrader.com’s data label “dumb … Continue reading

Amid continuing inflationary policy, the US Dollar is at a critical juncture by both daily and weekly charts.  Euro targets 142+ and the Yen approaches our target.  Currency war kicks off; gold just sits there biding time. From last week’s eLetter: “A Goldilocks atmosphere was expertly created in large part due to the fact … Continue reading

With our dear monetary leaders only two days away from bestowing upon us their latest financial wizardry, we should be aware of the money supply dynamics in play.  This week FOMC will either ramp the production of printed money, hang back and play coy while letting the existing $40 billion in MBS carry the load … Continue reading

The long-term T bond could be a great short even if it remains within its secular uptrend (interest rates in a secular downtrend) because as the big picture monthly chart of the ‘Continuum’ shows, there is a long way up to the 100 month EMA where another theoretical red arrow would be painted on long-term … Continue reading

I have been writing about risk management for quite a while now in the newsletter and want to be a little more explicit about it now here on the site.  We’ll use weekly charts to illustrate. The nominal gold price has done nothing unusual, even after yesterday’s hard decline to the 35 week exponential moving … Continue reading