Steve Saville

The following is excerpted from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 8th September 2013.

We occasionally see articles where the monetary base is wrongly discussed as if it were akin to the money supply or as if the change in the monetary base indicated the amount of monetary inflation in the economy.

Whether the stock market is in a long-term bullish trend or a long-term bearish trend can’t be determined by looking at nominal prices.

The following is excerpted from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 28th July 2013.

We are leading off with a discussion of gold mining stocks because the recent price action has created a situation that can now aptly be described as unprecedented. A consequence is that there has NEVER been a better time to buy gold mining stocks.

It’s not correct to think of today’s currencies as being ‘backed’ by the international reserve assets held by the central bank or government.

It seems that every year a new word or term or acronym becomes a prominent part of the financial world’s lexicon.

One of the simplest and best ways to ascertain gold’s long-term trend is to look at its performance relative to commodities in general.

On the rare occasions when the US stock market crashes, the crash never begins immediately after the price peak.

The US government usually admits to “price inflation” of about 2%/year. As far as we can tell, the actual rate is probably at least 5%/year, but no more than 7%/year. Let’s say 5%/year for the sake of argument.

The last long-term bull market in gold-mining stocks, which ran from the early-1960s through to 1980, occurred in parallel with a major upward trend in interest rates, a steady undercurrent of “inflation” fear, and the occasional dramatic “inflation” scare.

The Fed continues to pump aggressively