Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

There are many ways to measure market sentiment. We use surveys, put-call ratios, fund flows data and for commodities especially, the commitment of traders reports (COT). Lately, we’ve noted the improving sentiment picture for Gold. As a market weakens sentiment will naturally become less bullish. In this case, sentiment has weakened considerably yet Gold is … Continue reading

In covering the gold sector for my premium subscribers, I have noticed something lately. The large-caps really suck! Ok, that is harsh but it is the truth. In the chart below I show the large-cap indices. What do you see? The Dow Jones Precious Metals Index hasn’t gone anywhere for five years, while Gold has … Continue reading

This chart comes from Babak at TradersNarrative: The premium in GTU has dipped into the red for the first time since October 2010 and prior to that, late 2008. This is positive as it shows optimism is now quite low, if there is any.

An upward sloping consolidation in Gold that began in October has, despite a lack of any real losses, been enough to improve various sentiment indicators. Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch gives an update on his Gold sentiment indicator: Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold market timers tracked by the … Continue reading

Yesterday I came across a clip from one of the business channels. The discussion was about “king dollar” and Gold. (The king dollar probably gives it away). Anyway, one of the guests quipped, “I’m on record that Gold is a dumb trade. It is rising based on fear and confusion  and when that subsides, the … Continue reading

Heading into 2011, the consensus outlook on precious metals is slightly positive but the consensus believes that higher interest rates will ultimately support the US currency and in turn engender a move out of Gold. The Gold naysayers are using “rising rates” as a way to dismiss Gold. Let me explain why this belief is … Continue reading

Normally we write about the things and conditions that cause precious metals to rise. While these things may be obvious, the corresponding rise in the bull market will not always be consistent and linear. Small and large corrections will occur along the way. Some will be purely technical while some have real drivers. There are … Continue reading

Monday morning I was greeted via my inbox with a Bloomberg report on Gold. Bloomberg has a series called “The Dark Side of Gold.” Its important to note this isn’t the first time the news organization has attempted a hit-piece on Gold. I wrote about this exactly one year ago and identified the cases and … Continue reading

Analysts and pundits provide various reasons for the bull market in Gold. This includes emerging market demand, low interest rates, money printing, central bank accumulation, central bank policies and falling gold production. These are all good reason but there is one reason which stands apart and will drive precious metals to amazing heights. It is … Continue reading

The federal budget deficit rose to $150.4 billion last month, the largest November gap on record. And the government’s deficits are set to climb higher if Congress passes a tax-cut plan that’s estimated to cost $855 billion over two years….