Commentaries, Sentiment

BCA Research on Gold Bull Market

BCA calls Gold “a potential mania candidate.”

Back to gold bullion, BCA Research argues that it is hard to make the case that gold is currently “a crowded trade”. Many institutional and retail investors agree with the gold bull case but have been slow to act, argues BCA Research, “even as their faith in conventional stocks and bonds has ebbed. Indeed, based on investor meetings and anecdotal evidence, we estimate that the average portfolio allocation to gold is around 1%.

“This suggests that there is plenty of pent-up demand which could still flow into gold and related shares. True, the gold bull market will proceed in installments, not a straight line. It would not be a surprise to see gold suffer occasional selloffs of perhaps a few hundred dollars at a time during 2011.

“We would broadly view these selloffs as opportunities to boost core holdings. The bottom line is that gold is a potential mania candidate and expect good returns in this metal in 2011”.

I couldn’t agree more with BCA, although the mania will be years into the future and not in 2011 or 2012. Professionals continue to be under-invested in Gold.

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