Commentaries

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Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction

The commodity complex is famous for a sort of ‘Whack-a-Mole’ quality to it.  Do you remember back in the go-go days when it was NatGas (2005)?  Uranium (2007)?  Crude Oil (2008) and then a cluster of Copper (2011), Grains (2011) and Silver (2011)? Well today none of them are doing much.  Oil went up but … Continue reading

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Market Indicators in a Transformed System

We have used the ‘continuum’ (monthly chart of the 30 year yield) for years now to define tops in inflation expectations (red arrows at or around the EMA 100) and tops in deflationary fears (green arrows). 30 yr yield & 30 yr – 2 yr spread With the help of a MACD cross over (not … Continue reading

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Untangling gold at the Bank of England

From 2006 the Bank of England’s Annual Report has declared the quantity of gold in its custody, including the UK’s own 310 tonnes.

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Precious Metals Must Make a Stronger Statement Still

Yesterday was an impulsive looking move and something of a statement in itself.  But now technically, the metals and miners need to gather themselves (after a potential pullback on profit taking) and make a real statement. Yesterday was the booster stage (gap up), and another leg up from here would give the precious metals complex … Continue reading

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