Editorials

Gold and gold stocks remain in the larger correction that began almost 12 months ago. However, both became quite oversold, and a short-term low is now in place. Gold bottomed just below good support at $1755. It hit a low at $1750, with its net speculative position a hair from a two-year low. Open Interest … Continue reading

You would have to be blind, metaphorically speaking, not to see that Gold is back in correction mode. It never traded above the corrective highs around $1950, and more importantly, it has formed a nasty bearish engulfing candle on the monthly chart after testing the important $1900 resistance level.  That’s fine. This is all part … Continue reading

A rally in the dollar has taken hold; Silver failed to breakout, and Gold has sliced lower below $1800. Although I did not expect Gold to break out this year, I recently have been more sanguine about the prospects for a bullish consolidation. Last week I noted but misinterpreted the correction analog. The post-rebound decline … Continue reading

Gold endured a 20% correction over eight months. A 15% rebound followed that in two months. It has retraced some, but not a majority of the losses. This action is all part of the handle of a super bullish cup and handle pattern. The handle itself is part of a much larger bullish consolidation, but … Continue reading

The rebounds in Gold and Silver exceeded my expectations and closed May in a strong fashion, near the highs of the month. Gold’s monthly close was the third-highest ever. Silver failed to break resistance at $28.50, but its monthly close at $28 was the second-highest in the last eight years. As noted last week, Gold … Continue reading

After updating my macro-market outlook report for subscribers, I realized something about Gold. On a historical basis, it remains incredibly cheap. It may seem expensive on the surface, trading near $2,000/oz, but the reality is contrary to the perception. Gold is trading around the same level as 10 years ago.  Think of the gains in … Continue reading

The rebound in Gold and gold mining stocks has been weak. Gold hasn’t even hit $1800 yet, and GDX and GDXJ sputtered at the first sign of resistance. In addition, their weekly closes have been weak, and they failed to hold most of April’s gains into May. Monday’s pop aside; there has not been much … Continue reading

Last week we noted that Gold and gold stocks had made a short-term bottom.  The action this week has confirmed such and raised hopes of battered and beleaguered investors.  Gold and gold stocks have broken above initial resistance from double bottoms. Gold has surpassed $1750 while GDX has exceeded $34, and GDXJ has exceeded $49. … Continue reading

The action in recent days has confirmed a short-term bottom in Gold and gold stocks.  After becoming very oversold, Gold, GDX, and GDXJ have traced out double bottoms around areas of strong support. The chart below shows that GDX held 8-year support, which is a successful retest of the breakout in 2020. GDXJ fell below … Continue reading

The fundamental driver for Gold is declining real interest rates or expectations of a decline in real interest rates. Fed rate cuts or accelerating inflation and rising inflation expectations lead to declining real interest rates.  In the current macro-market context, the most important indicator is something different. Recently, we wrote why the real bull market … Continue reading