Editorials

The fundamental driver for Gold is declining real interest rates or expectations of a decline in real interest rates. Fed rate cuts or accelerating inflation and rising inflation expectations lead to declining real interest rates.  In the current macro-market context, the most important indicator is something different. Recently, we wrote why the real bull market … Continue reading

Gold rallied after becoming very oversold and hitting important support at $1675-$1690, but it could retest that low or make a lower low before a sustained rebound begins. Regardless of the short-term movements, with Gold having corrected 20% and GDX and GDXJ correcting over 30%, there are some great opportunities to buy quality and there … Continue reading

Gold’s severe correction and weak performance in relative terms has led many to ask if the bull market is over.  While Gold is correcting the move since 2016 or 2018, the better question is, has the bull market even started? In recent years, I’ve written about how important it is for Gold to outperform the … Continue reading

As I pen this article, Gold and gold stocks may be starting to form a low. Over the past four trading days, GDX and GDXJ have dug in and formed bullish reversal candles, while Gold has traded lower and tested its 38% retracement at $1690.  Gold traded as low as $1683 on Friday. I would … Continue reading

Since we called for a bottom a few weeks ago, Gold and gold stocks have tested that call. Gold and gold stocks rebounded but then appeared to begin another leg lower. This week had some optimism, but Thursday’s decline erased the optimism.  Traders and analysts (uh, me) are getting whipsawed.  The gold stocks are oversold … Continue reading

I’ve been in this sector long enough to know this fear isn’t anything new. Various and different characters, most of whom have a dubious track record, have been pushing this narrative as far back as the early 2000s.  This view is that the stock market will crash, which will cause a crash in Gold and … Continue reading

I’ve been in this game long enough that I know making declarative statements does not necessarily add value for the reader. But there is enough evidence to think the gold miners and junior gold stocks have hit bottom.  Last week we wrote about approaching the bottom, and that was a good segue. The gold stocks … Continue reading

Other than during a rally from Thanksgiving until New Year, gold stocks have been under pressure for nearly six months. The correction itself was not a surprise, but the structure has been different from the corrections during the 2000s.  Those corrections entailed a quick decline and then a recovery of most of the losses, on … Continue reading

The cup and handle pattern is a very common pattern in technical analysis and a very bullish one. The pattern is formed as a market, after an uptrend, corrects significantly but eventually bottoms and can rebound back to where the pattern began, the old high. Think of it like the letter “U.”   The handle is … Continue reading

While I did not expect the metals’ rebound to lead to a breakout, I was a bit too sanguine in my last article. I did note the potential for a US Dollar rally, which is underway, but should have stressed Silver’s stiff resistance at $27-$28 and in Gold at $1960. The failure at these levels … Continue reading