Editorials

Last I wrote to you, I expected precious metals could begin a decent rebound. The gold stocks were very oversold, Gold had cleared $1800/oz, and the Fed would be easier. Unfortunately, Gold failed at $1835 and this week failed at $1800/oz. Now the gold stocks are back at their lows. This isn’t very pleasant, but … Continue reading

The market perceived the Fed statement a few weeks ago as dovish, and last Friday’s jobs report, which was disappointing, reinforced that. As a result, the previously oversold precious metals sector is rallying. The charts show there are clear rally targets. Let’s start with GDXJ, the best proxy for most who invest in the sector. … Continue reading

No, the Fed pushing out rate hikes with language doesn’t amount to a macro catalyst. History shows that a macro catalyst for Gold is usually a shift in Fed policy or a correction or bear market in the stock market. These things typically lead to declining real interest rates, which drives Gold higher.   In 2017 … Continue reading

In our last editorial, we noted that if the gold stocks (HUI & GDXJ), which were in a precarious position, lost their lines of support, it could lead to another 15% to 20% downside. This week both the HUI and GDXJ lost support and are trading at fresh 52-week lows. The HUI has 10% downside … Continue reading

It’s not advisable to be presumptuous or make absolute statements, but the evidence is convincing.  Before I answer the question, let me set the stage. Last week we posted the Gold correction analog chart, which, if we take the average of the three worst bear market corrections, argues for a $1590 bottom in the spring … Continue reading

Gold remains in correction mode. Even if Gold were consolidating bullishly (from an immediate perspective), it would need more time to build a viable handle on the 9-year long cup pattern. Long-term volatility indicators, as well as historical analogs, argue it needs more time.  Here is how the current correction in Gold compares to the … Continue reading

Gold and gold stocks, in particular, have made a short-term low. The gold and silver stocks have been fairly oversold, while the smaller juniors have been very oversold, so a rebound is not surprising.  I was hoping to see GDX and GDXJ test $30 and $41 and reach extremely oversold readings, but I digress.  While … Continue reading

Boy, that escalated quickly. Last week we noted that the gold stocks were oversold but failed to mount any rally even as Gold had rebounded as much as $80/oz. Silver, which had been leading Gold, consolidated in a bearish fashion. In the context of a larger correction, that price action was ominous. Once Gold peaked, … Continue reading

Last week we wrote that Gold and gold stocks had made a short-term low, and a rally was likely. Gold has rallied above $1800, but someone forgot to tell the gold stocks and Silver. Gold gained $27/oz last week, but GDXJ lost 1.8%, and GDX was flat. Silver lost 1%. As I pen this, Gold … Continue reading

Gold and gold stocks remain in the larger correction that began almost 12 months ago. However, both became quite oversold, and a short-term low is now in place. Gold bottomed just below good support at $1755. It hit a low at $1750, with its net speculative position a hair from a two-year low. Open Interest … Continue reading

You would have to be blind, metaphorically speaking, not to see that Gold is back in correction mode. It never traded above the corrective highs around $1950, and more importantly, it has formed a nasty bearish engulfing candle on the monthly chart after testing the important $1900 resistance level.  That’s fine. This is all part … Continue reading

A rally in the dollar has taken hold; Silver failed to breakout, and Gold has sliced lower below $1800. Although I did not expect Gold to break out this year, I recently have been more sanguine about the prospects for a bullish consolidation. Last week I noted but misinterpreted the correction analog. The post-rebound decline … Continue reading