Weekly GSR maintains potential for bottom-making, although hope and greed have persisted and thus, GSR has remained painfully in a consolidation/bottoming structure. The potential inverted H&S is still there.
Now of course, the current process playing out in markets is a slow motion event and bearish blogs like this one are to be dismissed by bull playahs far and wide because there is a party going on and there is coin to be made. This is both part of the fun and part of the agony of markets; watching something take shape and develop over time while at the same time moving at its own pace, not caring about what may be convenient.
Downside events come much quicker and with more intensity. Bull phases tend to grind higher. The GSR seemingly takes forever to consolidate before signaling the next pain cycle. But the chart is the chart and if one day it tells me that happy (read: asset inflationary) days are here again, then so be it, it’s 2003-2007 all over again, only more intensely inflationary given the amount of funny munny printed, which would look for assets in which to denominate itself.
GSR does not tell me that yet (nor do treasury bonds; not yet). It tells me that it is still looking to bottom amid the greedy mania going on out there. This has the potential to be one hell of an opportunity to either preserve capital or take advantage of systematic herding. Do you see it? Did you see its opposite 1.5 years ago?