So there was a panicky spike in gold last summer as the herd sought refuge from the euro, which was falling apart as some of its components had a really hard time peddling their legacy of debt.
This was going to be the big one as gold was finally going to blast off, better get aboard! You are a gold bug now and you are safe! No, unfortunately the new players were just being introduced to the overdone euphoria of the upside thrills, only to later be introduced to the bile of the inevitable downward reactions.
Out popped Gartman, Roubini and even the big, bearish guns in the person of Buffett himself. Many people were actually led to believe the bull market was ending because well, luminaries of great legend were either bearish or outright questioning the bull market and even the relic’s standing as a monetary asset class. Perfect, gold needed a cleaning (see Gold is Getting Fixed, which was excerpted from NFTRH154 last September) and it not only got violent reactions in September through December, but the simple ‘value’ relic continues to grind on peoples’ nerves to this day. Perfect.
So where’s the relic at now? Here is where it is now. it is in a Symmetrical Triangle and/or a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders that is really a Cup (no previous downtrend, so no IHS. Sorry, but I am a stickler on some things). Gold is in a battle at the moving average cluster but above the downside target we have open by a weekly chart. Also, gold remains well above the December low, a point which, if lost on the downside would really get the luminaries mentally pleasuring themselves.
Some people call me a chartie, but that is really a linear description. I use charts all the time and in fact they are my guide. But I am also a real money and [more] honest systems proponent. The chart of this monetary barometer tells me that anyone claiming the bull market is over is reading what they want to read into the situation. That is because there is no technical evidence of that.
In fact, that looks more like a bullish pattern shaping up and the target is 2050. When the pattern breaks down I’ll come out here and admit how wrong I was. But not until the chart says so. Aside from the nominal price of gold and with respect to the big macro economic picture and the gold mining industry’s investment case (such as it is), it is gold’s price in relation to other assets that is important. And some signals may be cropping up there.
After all, gold has been getting ‘fixed’ for months now. The unhealthy holders are gone and players are aligned in their traditional roles.