Gold. The $1260-$1500 RoadMap!

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Weekly Market Update Excerpt
Jan 07, 2011

Gold and Precious Metals

US Dollar Chart

US Dollar Analysis:

  • I told you week ago, “A stronger dollar into the first few weeks of the New Year will allow a correction in GOLD.”
  • The US Dollar showed declining volume as price dropped, so I knew a “pop” to the upside was near.  This week the opposite has occurred.  Up volume is already fading down again as price goes higher.

  • This is a clear sign for further gains in Gold, over the intermediate to longer term.  Volume patterns can’t be encouraging to the Dollar Bulls.  They are going to get a beating.

  • Wait till you look at my charts this week; you will see the theme for Gold is, “first a little pain, and then a giant gain!”.
  • The Dollar rally is volume-anaemic, and I expect my predicted move higher in the short-intermediate to play out almost exactly I projected to you.  Look at my projected move down for the dollar as the rally dies!

  • Of serious concern for the dollar is the 8 plus trillion dollar market cap in outstanding US treasuries.  That massive market cap is accompanied by a never-ending supply of new Government issued debt.  If you take inventory of the outstanding liabilities, the numbers are staggering.  The US National debt just hit $14 trillion.

  • I believe the biggest statistical nightmare, from a fundamental perspective, is the $112 trillion in unfunded liabilities.  Think about that term, “unfunded”.  That is double-speak for debt.  That debt is real and it is owed.

  • Thomas Jefferson, remember him?  Well, he warned of the immense damage that would occur if the people assigned control of the money supply to the banking sector.  “I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies”.

Where are your liberties?  Ask the banks.  Your liberties are in their deepest vaults.  What do you have in return?  Paper money that might be going to zero.  Was the trade worth it?

  • The glut of overspending by government officials could have never taken place if it were not for the Fiat Currency system adopted in 1971.  Government social policies are creating the very thing Jefferson warned you about.

Gold Bullion.  6 Month Price Chart.

Gold Bullion Analysis:

  • My predictions of a week ago are playing out exactly.  I have focused you on the floor support for Gold at 1260.  I am an incremental buyer all the way down to that 1260 point.

  • I have to wonder how well investors will handle a decline to 1260.  It has been a year or so since we have seen a nasty Gold decline.  Bull Markets convince people they can never go down, and then… look out below!  Can you handle it, are you buying?

  • The fundamental Story for higher Gold couldn’t be any better than it is.  Yet, corrections need to come to supply the Bull Markets.  Policy Elites with no business experience initiate Stupid Math Economics,  which supposes that Consumption equals prosperity.  In reality, this action creates inflation and a weaker dollar, producing nothing but a higher cost of living and a lower standard of living!  At the same time, the price of Gold and all other commodities increases dramatically.

  • The main key to the continuing Bull Market in Gold is the enormous debt.   The debt of the US will propel Gold higher.  A lot of the debt is hidden, so the ultimate high price for gold may also be hidden.

Gold Bullion  14 Month Price Chart

  • Analysis: A long term BULLISH picture with short term warning remains the theme.
  • The most notable action of the week was somewhat higher volume on lower prices indicating further weakness is likely. That is the story in short term, yet the longer term volume has declined since the corrective action started in November.
  • Short term: Mild Pain.  Long term: Giant Gain!

  • I used the heavy volume picture in early November to predict a gold market correction while most were talking an acceleration of the price.  Now I’m telling you that the overall down volume in the current decline will bring you higher prices over the intermediate term. Note my specific targets on the charts.
  • Corrections in Bull Markets can be violent and downright frightening.  Peter Lynch was possibly the greatest mutual fund manger of our lifetimes.  He managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund with a return of approximately 29% annually.  Yet only 30% of his shareholders ever made money!  How can that be?  It was because…
  • They sold out when price came down!

Gold Juniors – GDXJ Chart.

Gold Juniors Analysis:

  • I issued a Buy Signal on Jan 4th.
  • My Superforce Analysis was extremely accurate over the last week. I believe in the short term prices will continue to decline.  In the very shortest term, I expect a pause in the decline, but it is not over.
  • My short term GDXJ target since the November time line has been $34.  As some of you get to know me, you’ll see I don’t waffle on my stated predictions or “re-evaluate” very often.
  • Once the correction ends, my one year target is: $75.   There is a high danger to investors that the correction ends suddenly and leaves them behind as price rockets higher with tremendous volatility.

GDX- 9 Month Chart

  • Note the commentary on the above GDX chart. The 57-54 price target on GDX is one of the best all around buying opportunities in any market for 2011, and I stand by that prediction.

GDX.  Massive Breakout On 3 Year Chart

  • The most undervalued story on all of Wall Street is GDX, in my opinion, and for the most part, the crowd is totally missing it.  Stocks got whacked hard in 2008 including GDX; since then Gold has made one new high after another.  I believe gold stocks are assuming the leadership position.  Many times leadership rotates in corrections. GDX is a fantastic long term buy and will be up dramatically from here.

Silver 5 month Chart:

  • I don’t cover silver every week because the story right now is very much the same as the other sectors. Volume longer term is a Bullish picture.
  • I mention it today because my technicals tell me that we are likely about another down day or so away from a fresh Buy Signal, but I think that any rally will then see even lower prices.  Like with gold and gold stocks, I don’t think the correction is over.

Work continues on my unique ARB TRADER program to mimic what the banks do with the triple leveraged ETFs to milk investors, and a January 14th hoped-for launch is on schedule.  The inefficiencies in the structure of the ETFs can be exploited and Peter Lynch style profits booked while acting more as a bookie than a gambler in the market!

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Our Surge Index Signals are created thru our proprietary blend of the highest quality technical analysis and many years of successful business building.  We are two business owners with excellent synergy.  We understand risk and reward.   Our subscribers are generally successful business owners, people like yourself with speculative funds, looking for serious management of your risk and reward in the market.  

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Morris Hubbartt: Chief Market Analyst, Trading Risk Specialist.