The weak hands are heavily long the US$

This chart from sentimentrader.com, shows that the speculators are more long than at any other time (and this dates back a while).  Now this isn’t necessarily bearish for the US$ in the short-term.  However, it means that when the US$ turns down again, it is likely to be a huge leg down as there are a lot of weak hands that will sell on any sustained weakness. The commercial traders (the strong hands) tend to be patient. They don’t bail on their positions easily. They were hugely short at the top in 2005, as well as a few months before the last top. Now they are more short than at any other time.