We show the charts and data of the stock market declines during each of the past 12 recessions. On average, the stock market makes a peak a few months before the recession and declines sharply until the recession is three to four months from its end. Thus, the length of the recession is an important factor in the severity of the stock market decline.
In the last 9 recessions (ex Covid), the recession decline began on average 1.3 months before the start of the recession and lasted an average of 7 months. If the recession lasts longer than 6 to 8 months, then the recession decline will be more than 20%.