Video Update

Video: Bear Market Template Update

The stock market continues to follow the template of 6 cyclical bear markets within 3 secular bears. The market recently failed at the 200-day moving average. That was the second major sell signal for past bear markets.

The bulls are hoping the market follows a similar pattern to 1962. Then the market rallied after a 28% drop but then quickly retested the bottom, and successfully. Even from the 1962 peak to 1968 peak the S&P 500 only gained 50%. The end of the secular bull in the 1960s was much different than the end of the 1920s and 1990s.

At this point, the 8 month decline in the stock market looks more like those 6 bad cyclical bear markets than like 1962.

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