Expected Returns

Gold has finally breached the psychological $1,500 level, and as far as I can tell, the hoopla surrounding this milestone is rather muted compared to what we saw at $1,000. We will probably need to hit $1,600 before gold becomes the talk of the town again. As it stands, this is still somewhat of … Continue reading

The longer I invest, the more I understand that there is a certain temperament you need to be profitable. This is not a pure data-driven field- otherwise investment banks with their fancy tools and teams of analysts could actually predict events instead of being overrun by them. You need to feel out markets. You need … Continue reading

This is an interesting time for global markets. The Nikkei followed up yesterday’s sell-off with an even bigger 11% plunge today. The Yen, however, is rising in the midst of this panic. Capital is repatriating to Japan and this is going to make their crisis even worse. The U.S. equity market is also coming … Continue reading

I’ve read my fair share of history. I know that people have been calling for the collapse of our debt structure for a long time yet nothing has happened. The belief that the U.S. can claw its way out of any crisis is embedded in our DNA. We still have the most mature markets and the … Continue reading

After months of consolidation, gold has rallied to make new all-time highs. Depending on your position size, $1320, $1350, and $1375 were points to add. I nibbled above $1320, but missed $1350. No problem: I have a very healthy long position and I am not inclined to get leveraged here. That being said, I will add … Continue reading

Things are really starting to get interesting as civil unrest is having real effects on various markets. Oil is testing $100, gold is near its all-time highs, and stocks are selling off. Gadhafi has opened fire on his own people, which to me indicates that his grip on power is eroding. It appears this is … Continue reading

Future generations will no doubt wonder how we missed back to back crises that were staring us in the face. The housing crisis exposed to the whole world how ignorant professionals and average investors alike could be.  Without a taxpayer-funded bailout, too big to fail institutions  (which ironically have since become too bigger to fail) … Continue reading

Gold hit 4-month lows today on heavy selling, which is something I’ve been expecting based on price action as a function of time. The violation of $1320 to the downside signifies a change in trend is upon us. Short-term moving averages are turning down. I am going to sit on my hands until we: 1) recapture … Continue reading

I have warned that a debt crisis of a magnitude we have never experienced before is approaching. States and municipalities are going bankrupt along with the Federal government. Economists foolishly applaud sub-3% growth in GDP when it took a $1 trillion budget deficit to produce. There is some serious misunderstanding of the fundamentals of our economy right … Continue reading

Now that 2010 is coming to a close, it’s time to start thinking about how various assets will fare in 2011. Considering that gold has consistently risen for a decade , it makes sense that more and more eyes are fixed on gold. It will eventually be gold’s time to absolutely dominate the headlines, but in … Continue reading