Expected Returns

This is an interesting time for global markets. The Nikkei followed up yesterday’s sell-off with an even bigger 11% plunge today. The Yen, however, is rising in the midst of this panic. Capital is repatriating to Japan and this is going to make their crisis even worse. The U.S. equity market is also coming … Continue reading

I’ve read my fair share of history. I know that people have been calling for the collapse of our debt structure for a long time yet nothing has happened. The belief that the U.S. can claw its way out of any crisis is embedded in our DNA. We still have the most mature markets and the … Continue reading

After months of consolidation, gold has rallied to make new all-time highs. Depending on your position size, $1320, $1350, and $1375 were points to add. I nibbled above $1320, but missed $1350. No problem: I have a very healthy long position and I am not inclined to get leveraged here. That being said, I will add … Continue reading

Things are really starting to get interesting as civil unrest is having real effects on various markets. Oil is testing $100, gold is near its all-time highs, and stocks are selling off. Gadhafi has opened fire on his own people, which to me indicates that his grip on power is eroding. It appears this is … Continue reading

Future generations will no doubt wonder how we missed back to back crises that were staring us in the face. The housing crisis exposed to the whole world how ignorant professionals and average investors alike could be.  Without a taxpayer-funded bailout, too big to fail institutions  (which ironically have since become too bigger to fail) … Continue reading

Gold hit 4-month lows today on heavy selling, which is something I’ve been expecting based on price action as a function of time. The violation of $1320 to the downside signifies a change in trend is upon us. Short-term moving averages are turning down. I am going to sit on my hands until we: 1) recapture … Continue reading

I have warned that a debt crisis of a magnitude we have never experienced before is approaching. States and municipalities are going bankrupt along with the Federal government. Economists foolishly applaud sub-3% growth in GDP when it took a $1 trillion budget deficit to produce. There is some serious misunderstanding of the fundamentals of our economy right … Continue reading

Now that 2010 is coming to a close, it’s time to start thinking about how various assets will fare in 2011. Considering that gold has consistently risen for a decade , it makes sense that more and more eyes are fixed on gold. It will eventually be gold’s time to absolutely dominate the headlines, but in … Continue reading

I’ve been consistently warning that U.S.government bonds will eventually implode. Using history as a guide, I know that when the sell-off in bonds begins, it will be very swift. The magnitude of panics are inversely correlated to the degree in which investors are deluded. Some of the most ignorant comments I’ve ever heard have been on … Continue reading

Gold is taking us on a roller coaster ride that I’m sure has many people concerned. However, long-term gold bulls can rest assured that this is not the type of price action typical of bubbles; when bubbles pop, they don’t retest highs for many, many years. Gold on the other hand is making new highs, … Continue reading

Economic data is coming in mixed today. While initials jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since July 2008, median home prices fell to a 7-year low. With such conflicting data, the question naturally arises: Will the U.S.  economy recover, especially without real estate leading the way? To get a glimpse of what awaits us, we should turn to Europe. Ireland … Continue reading

I want to take the time to talk about trading these moves in gold, especially since it appears a lot of people are confused by the gold market right now. First and foremost, you want to be on the right side of the trade. I suspect most of you are long gold or you wouldn’t be reading … Continue reading