Expected Returns

There comes a point in time when reality sets in en masse and people awaken from their self-imposed slumber. The ongoing destruction in our economy is not something people want to believe, but it is something people regrettably have to face. President Obama too was granted the benefit of the doubt until it became impossible … Continue reading

Readers of this blog are getting an invaluable lesson in why people have so much trouble making money- even in a bull market! To make the point of how absurd it is to panic after a minor correction, I post the thoughts of gold permabears in real-time so that we can all have some good comic relief looking back. … Continue reading

One of the reasons I’m fascinated by markets is because it reveals a lot about human nature and our inherent biases. Most people don’t come into the markets with a rational and empirical mindset supported by hard data; they are too busy watching TV all day. This is fine by me because it is human irrationality … Continue reading

I’ve never heard of Feliz Zulauf, but he gives an excellent interview. He believes currencies will eventually devalue sharply in a very short period of time, which will bring about a global currency reform. I’m basically in the same camp. In many ways, the debt crisis we are facing is unprecedented since it is so global in … Continue reading

As I’ve mentioned repeatedly in the past, gold is perhaps the most misunderstood asset in the world. Try to explain to people the true nature of gold and expect to be greeted with petulant disdain. It took more than a little arm twisting for me to convince people that gold is a currency and not a … Continue reading

Boredom is starting to slowly reappear in the gold market as multiple attempts to penetrate $1250 on the upside were thwarted. Investor sentiment was bound to come back down to earth, and this correction is doing just that. With precious metals stocks down 10% from their recent peak, latecomers to the party are starting to get nervous. This … Continue reading

The latest SEC investigation of Goldman Sachs has brought down most asset classes, including gold. Of course this makes no sense whatsoever, since the secular bull market in gold is driven by factors outside Goldman’s packaging of esoteric securities to unsuspecting investors. However, short-term moves often defy logic, and it is the job of the long-term … Continue reading