Expected Returns

Now that everyone is thoroughly confused by the market, it’s time to take a step back and see what’s going on. We are at a pivotal point where the market can turn either way. The market has rallied more or less nonstop for the past 2 weeks so we are due for a little breather. I … Continue reading

The much-hyped economic recovery has suddenly disappeared into thin air as economists and mainstream analysts are left scratching their heads in bewilderment. But since the herd couldn’t see the biggest collapse in 75 years coming, what makes you think they can recognize a double dip before it develops? 2nd quarter revenue misses from stalwarts like JP … Continue reading

Another day, another pre-market shellacking of gold. I’ve seen enough of these suspicious pre-market sell-offs over the years to know that going long into deep selling is profitable. Bull markets always overpower short-term selling pressure. Sentiment in the gold space is currently the exact opposite of exuberant. Go up to 10 random people and tell them to … Continue reading

Marc Faber is known to be fairly provocative (and accurate) with his predictions. As the U.S. government spends its way to oblivion, Faber foresees the mathematically inevitable: prohibitive interest payments that force the government to print, in Faber’s words, “worthless confetti.” In response, Faber believes the U.S. will go to war. Let’s hope not: two useless … Continue reading

Here is an excellent report put out by the Erste Group. Very comprehensive analysis of gold with nice data points and charts. Their long-term target of $2,300 is in line with where I see gold going eventually. Notice in the following chart provided in the report that gold does fine in deflationary environments since the value … Continue reading

Anyone who has been following this blog knows that I tend to do the opposite of the mainstream. My latest rendition of contrarian investing occurred at the latest intermediate term bottom in stocks when everyone was bearish, with many calling for a crash. What was I doing? I was buying. I have been doing one … Continue reading

We are dealing with a very volatile market; it’s hard to trade with conviction either on the long or short side. That being said, I am leaning bullish. This is the type of “emotional” market….

There is no doubt in my mind we will eventually have a currency crisis in America. While all swaths of America will be affected, select groups will bear a greater burden. In my opinion, the burden will fall most heavily on Baby Boomers. The result of currency devaluations can be boiled down prosaically: savers get … Continue reading

Yesterday was one of those days in the gold space that is a nightmare to many gold investors, but an absolute dream to investors like me. These are the days when the price action in gold resembles a cliff dive. Stop after stop gets hit as shorts press the issue and force overleveraged investors out … Continue reading

Quick update, since this is obviously going to be a crazy day. The last month or so has been quite volatile for the stock market. One week we’re up 10%, the next week we’re down 10%. This is a market that can’t make up its mind where it wants to go. We are currently very oversold and … Continue reading

Gartman: I don’t get the sense that the public is terribly involved. CNBC anchor: Wait you don’t think the public is involved in the gold trade Dennis? Gartman: No, not much at all actually CNBC anchor: But the holdings for GLD are at record highs Gartman: I understand but you look at who holds the … Continue reading

I believe we have recently added a much-needed element that will lead to much higher gold prices- boredom. General gold sentiment amidst near-record prices is muted and reminiscent of sentiment last fall when we broke out to new highs, backtested the breakout, then rocket launched for 3 straight months. It was the type of move that … Continue reading