Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

Earlier this week the precious metals complex achieved a breakout. Today, (Friday) we are seeing upside follow through in the gold shares. Follow through validates the breakout. Also, as we’ve noted on our charts, the gold shares are performing well against Gold. We like to see the shares exhibiting superior strength. GDXJ the ETF for … Continue reading

We obviously have been too cautious on Silver. The metal has been on a tear and has shown no weakness in the past few weeks. Our upside targets were $37 and $39. A clean break of $39, which seems imminent will send the market to $45 and possibly $50. Monday was the start of a … Continue reading

In recent weeks Gold has made new highs but they have been marginal. That is not what we call a sustained breakout or impulsive advance. In an impulsive advance the market continues higher in an unimpeded fashion. We are skeptical that Gold will make a big breakout here and now but its a bull market … Continue reading

In this missive we reply to the supposed reasons against investing in Gold. Point: If you bought Gold in 1980, you were in the red for many years. In only two and a half months, Gold went from $400/oz to over $850/oz. Gold really began to takeoff in the second quarter of 1979 at a … Continue reading

Yes Gold has been flirting with all-time highs. Sounds strong, right? Wrong. In reality, Gold has been in a consolidation or running correction since October of last year. In recent weeks Gold has flirted with all-time highs but hasn’t been able to achieve a sustained breakout. Meanwhile, as the chart shows, the gold stocks (GDX, … Continue reading

Many analysts focus on the seasonality of Gold and Silver. Why? It plays out most of the time. The metals tend to peak in the late spring and then bottom in the early summer before moving into the sweet spot of the year. When researching seasonality, I came across this chart from equityclock.com that shows … Continue reading

Yes, precious metals are actually in a bull market. If you actually polled the mainstream, you would find few that could even admit it. Its almost heresy if you come from a conventional background. As we now know, conventional thinking often fails miserably. Gold is in the 11th year of its bull market and conventional … Continue reading

Relative Gold is also known as the real price of Gold. Its essentially a comparison of Gold against various asset classes. Why is this important? There are two reasons. First, the real price of gold tends to lead leverage performance (e.g the HUI/Gold ratio). Second, the real price of Gold often provides hints of the … Continue reading

The US Dollar index found support at 72 and has held that low for the time being. Yet, the buck was unable to hold both strong rallies of the past two years. Now it has fallen below 80 and is threatening support at 75. In the short-term we feel the greenback can hold its own … Continue reading

Silver has been red hot lately and the silver shares have joined in the fun. Yet, we haven’t seen a corresponding breakout in Gold or in the gold shares (as evidenced by GDXJ and GDX). In the chart below we show SIL (large silver stocks), Silver, Gold, GDXJ (gold juniors) and GDX (large cap golds). … Continue reading