Editorials

The macro fundamentals are not bullish for Gold at this moment.   The Fed is still tightening. The economy has picked up a bit, and so too, have inflation expectations.    This means higher real rates for now. Not bullish.   However, the market discounts and anticipates in advance.    And both of the … Continue reading

Gold’s winter rebound thwarted a 2013-like scenario. However, the sharp February selloff and nasty monthly candles reflect no bull market yet.    Gold is stuck but remains in a larger handle consolidation within a super-bullish cup and handle pattern.   I am not a fan of trendline and channel analysis as it is prone to … Continue reading

Last week I wrote that the stock market had veered away from the course of a mega-bear market.   The rebound in the stock market has triggered several breadth thrusts, which (usually after a correction or bear market) signal more upside in the immediate future. It is not a coincidence that Gold and Silver … Continue reading

I have written about this topic quite a few times. I am writing about it again today because it will become an extremely important indicator for precious metals within the next 12 months.    Gold has enjoyed a great rebound and has approached its 2020 and 2021 highs. But the stock market has also … Continue reading

Last week we wrote about the propensity for mild corrections in the early stages of Gold bull markets.    Corrections in Gold tend to be limited to 8% to 10% at the most while corrections in the gold miners tend to be limited to 15%. The exception is when you get a vertical recovery, … Continue reading

Who is not expecting a correction in precious metals right now?   It’s always the smart, sensible, but knee-jerk posture following a rebound that follows a bear market.   I even wrote about potential downside targets when the sector hit resistance roughly six weeks ago.   But the reality is that Gold and gold … Continue reading

In our last article, we noted that Gold is outperforming everything.    It is trending higher and positioned above rising 200-day moving averages when charted against the stock market, bond market, commodities, and foreign currencies. Yesterday it closed at a fresh two-year high against the conventional 60/40 portfolio.   To be sure, on a technical … Continue reading

Gold’s performance in real terms is important for two reasons.   First and foremost, it tends to be a leading indicator of the Gold price. That is instructive when Gold is rebounding but has yet to gain real traction or momentum.    Secondly, when Gold strengthens in real terms, it indicates mining margins are … Continue reading

Real Interest rates are the key driver for precious metals. Specifically, declining real interest rates and negative real interest rates drive precious metals higher.   However, there is a second driver that speaks to the secular trend and over the years I have learned this is as important as the trend in real interest … Continue reading

Precious Metals traded up to the resistance levels we noted a week ago but reversed lower to start the week.    Precious metals have rebounded with the broader market. There needs to be a transition in which they lead and perform in real terms. But I digress.    Let’s look at the key levels … Continue reading