Positive divergences within a downtrend are important because they can precede a bottom and trend reversal. Our most recent editorial noted some positive divergences in the gold market.   One should never make much of one trading day, but the ongoing positive divergences in the precious metals sector and Friday’s action raise the odds … Continue reading “Positive Divergences Abound in Precious Metals”

Although precious metals have rebounded, some consternation remains that they could be headed much lower before a major bottom.   However, when one considers the fundamental backdrop, one will realize that a major turn is soon at hand.   At the end of September, the S&P 500 closed below its 40-month moving average. Over the … Continue reading “Major Catalysts Building for Gold”

In this article, I will briefly examine Gold’s technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment to hazard a guess at when and where the major turn will be.   It is vital to consider all three tools to build a case.   On the fundamental front, we are well aware that precious metals have historically bottomed around the … Continue reading “When and Where Will Gold Bottom?”

  Gold is breaking down technically. There’s no denying it.   Gold has already closed at a fresh 52-week and 2-year low in daily and weekly terms. It needs to close above $1715 at the end of the month to negate a monthly breakdown.   However, recent weakness has not been confirmed by similar markets. … Continue reading “Gold Breaking Down, But Multiple Non-Confirmations”

  It has been a very rough time for precious metals. In recent months they have endured another terrible selloff that feels like a combination of 2013 and 2008.   However, think about how they “looked” technically before major bottoms, like during 2000, 2008, and late 2015. They also looked terrible at other important lows … Continue reading “Gold Stocks Perform Best After They Look Their Worst”

  One reason the history of markets is fascinating is that we can glean clues about the future. History does not always repeat itself, but it often rhymes.   For precious metals, the last six years lack a strong comparison.   There has not been a similar period in which the Gold price rallied back … Continue reading “The Best Historical Comparison for Gold & Silver”

  Regular readers by now are familiar with Gold’s fundamental drivers and the influence of the stock market.    Falling and or negative real interest rates are the fundamental driver for Gold and are usually a byproduct of a weak stock market and economic recession.    However, today I want to focus on the larger … Continue reading “Understanding the Gold Cycle”

  Two weeks ago, I wrote about the potential for a rally in gold stocks. They were extremely oversold, trading at support, and the selling was abating.    Precious Metals bottomed before the Fed decision last week and jumped higher following the decision. This week they have retreated a bit thanks to Fed jawboning.    … Continue reading “Rally Targets in Gold & Gold Stocks”

  I have often written about the importance of the Gold to S&P 500 ratio.   Gold (and gold stocks and Silver) has never been in a real, sustained bull market without outperforming the stock market.   Sure, there have been strong cyclical moves (from 1985 to 1987 and August 2018 to August 2020), but … Continue reading “The #1 Long-Term Indicator for Gold”

  The gold stocks are extremely oversold. That’s obvious.   However, selling pressure has waned since the end of June. The daily candles have been mild, suggesting less and less distribution.   The last three days mark three consecutive days of accumulation candles for the first time in months.   These candles come amidst an … Continue reading “Rally Time in the Gold Stocks”