Signal vs. Noise in the Gold Market

    In his book Nobody Knows Anything, my friend Bob Moriarty wrote about the difference between signal and noise. Unfortunately, much of the information in the gold space or what passes for such is really noise. Conspiracy theories around manipulation, price suppression and China are all too popular while important factors like real interest … Continue reading “Signal vs. Noise in the Gold Market”

Is the Relative Strength in Gold Miners to Gold Significant?

    It has been a tough spring and summer for precious metals. Gold failed to breakout when it had the chance and it closed the second quarter in ominous and weak fashion. It was the lowest monthly close in more than a year. Silver has performed better but only because it has not declined … Continue reading “Is the Relative Strength in Gold Miners to Gold Significant?”

Bearish Sentiment Can Only Take Gold so Far

    Despite its lack of bullish fundamentals and the poor price action, Gold is now technically oversold and has reached strong support with sentiment approaching potentially extreme levels. The conditions are in place for a rally. That being said, bearish sentiment by itself is not enough to push Gold beyond a relief rally. While … Continue reading “Bearish Sentiment Can Only Take Gold so Far”

US Dollar Outlook & What it Means for Gold

      We do not focus too much on the US dollar because in the big picture Gold usually leads movements in the dollar. As it pertains to the present, Gold’s failure to breakout (while the dollar made two new lows since the summer 2016 peak in Gold) implies that the the dollar, at … Continue reading “US Dollar Outlook & What it Means for Gold”

Stock Market More Important for Gold than US Dollar

    The fundamental drivers for Gold and the US Dollar are similar and that is why they typically trend together. Negative and/or falling real rates drive Gold and the same drives the greenback though with respect to differentials between the other competing currencies. When real rates are rising or strong in the US that … Continue reading “Stock Market More Important for Gold than US Dollar”

This is When Gold Will Soar…

  Despite the insistence of some, precious metals have not been in a bull market. After a big pop at the start of 2016, the sector has trended lower. Sure, Gold has traded up towards a major breakout but Silver and the gold stocks have trended lower. When the US Dollar corrected significantly, the stock … Continue reading “This is When Gold Will Soar…”

What’s Next for Gold

    Gold failed to breakout in the spring and recently lost weekly support at $1310. Meanwhile, the gold stocks have held up well in recent weeks (considering Gold) but still have much to prove. Silver couldn’t rally much when its net speculative position was at an all time low. The question now is where … Continue reading “What’s Next for Gold”

The Missing Link for Gold

    Last week we discussed the fundamentals of Gold, which do not appear bullish at the moment. Real rates (and yields) are rising and investment demand for Gold is flat. That in itself is a temporary but big missing link. However, we are referring to the missing link in the context of intermarket analysis. … Continue reading “The Missing Link for Gold”

Gold’s Fundamentals are not Bullish…Yet

    Ask some gold bugs why Gold has not broken out yet and you will probably get the usual answers. Some will say it’s due to manipulation or price suppression. Others will mention the current rally in the US Dollar (while neglecting that the previous decline in the greenback was unable to take Gold … Continue reading “Gold’s Fundamentals are not Bullish…Yet”

Juniors are Close to Breaking Downtrend

  A few weeks ago we wrote that it may not be Gold’s time yet but a few recent developments suggest its time could be sooner than we anticipated. Although Gold failed to breakout last week, we should note the positive action in the miners. Over the past seven trading days the miners have strongly … Continue reading “Juniors are Close to Breaking Downtrend”

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