Editorials

  First we need to define what a breakout actually is. Its when the price breaks a pattern or a range and a new trend is therefore established. Today, people are all too quick to refer to almost every move higher as a breakout. Just google “Gold Breakout” and you’ll see what I mean. … Continue reading

A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Its supposed to be a bullish signal and it just happened in Gold. In order to know if this is meaningful, we should check the history and assess the results. We used weekly charts (with equivalent moving averages) so you … Continue reading

  Last week we discussed the difference between a rally and bull market. Gold stocks have been in a rally. That rally is now over as gold stocks peaked at their 400-day moving averages days ago and sliced through their 200-day moving averages Friday. Take a look at the charts of any gold stock … Continue reading

    Although the financial media conflates the two, there is a difference between a rally and a bull market. A rally implies a rebound after or a reprieve from weakness. A bull market is higher highs and higher lows for a period of at least a few years. Gold’s strength in the 2000s … Continue reading

  The precious metals complex has enjoyed a nice run in recent months. GDX has gained 25% since the September lows while GDXJ has gained 22% since its November low. Gold has rallied over $100/oz since its October low and Silver has surged in recent weeks. The Gold community is getting excited again. They … Continue reading

  Although yours truly has yet to completely jump on the bull bandwagon (which has revved up recently), I cannot ignore the positive fundamental and technical developments for precious metals. On the fundamental side, the market is essentially pricing in no hikes for 2019 and the start of rate cuts in 2020. For Gold, … Continue reading

  As we’ve been saying, the stock market will have great influence on Gold. It has been easy to see in recent months. The S&P 500 has cracked, losing both its 200-day and 400-day moving averages. Gold and gold stocks have benefitted and gained in recent months even with a stable to rising US … Continue reading

    If we want to know where Gold is going we should follow Gold. Right? How about following gold stocks? At times, they lead Gold. What about the US Dollar? Wrong! In 2019, one market more than any other will impact Gold. That is the stock market. History argues (within the current context) … Continue reading

  In recent days we’ve seen the beginnings of an inversion in the yield curve. The 2-year yield and the 5-year yield have inverted but not yet the the 2-year yield and the 10-year yield, the curve that is watched most. However, “2s and 10s” as bond traders would say appear headed for an … Continue reading

  Recent market and economic developments are positive for Gold and precious metals but conditions are not bullish yet. Bullish conditions and bullish fundamentals would be highlighted by a shift in Fed policy. They aren’t shifting yet. They are slowing, which precedes a shift.   From a market standpoint, we need to see strength … Continue reading