Editorials

Gold has suffered recently in the wake of higher real interest rates while the US Dollar, thanks to higher yields has reached a 14-year high. Stronger real rates hurt Gold but so does a stronger US Dollar, which remains the dominant global currency. In addition to falling real interest rates Gold likely needs the US … Continue reading

Last week we wrote that Gold was broken but noted the oversold condition in the precious metals sector as well as the relative strength in the gold stocks. At one moment last week, the gold stocks were trading above where they were in mid-November when Gold was trading some $60/oz higher. In other words, Gold … Continue reading

Last week we wrote that the 2016 bull market in Gold and gold stocks had gone off course. It had moved too far out of the historical boundaries to remain a bull market. There was also other evidence of such including but not limited to rising real yields. Gold’s last hope was to hold $1200-$1210 … Continue reading

While we expected additional weakness in Gold and gold stocks (weeks ago) we did not quite expect the kind of selling the sector experienced in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. The market reacted by sending bond yields dramatically higher which resulted in stronger real interest rates, which is fundamentally negative for precious metals. … Continue reading

The gold stocks continue to correct their epic +150% rebound that began in January and ran into the summer. Last week it was the poor relative strength in the miners that hinted the correction had more to go in both time and price. This week, it was the miners failure at a confluence of resistance, … Continue reading

You have heard it before from us and probably elsewhere. The miners lead Gold. We have seen this every major turn dating back 16 years and it can also be the case with respect to short and medium term trends. While the precious metals sector has rallied over the past few weeks, the rally has … Continue reading

The gold stocks are clearly in correction mode. The large caps (HUI, GDX) have corrected 30% while the juniors (GDXJ) have held up well in comparison by correcting the same amount. Given a number of factors (the size of the previous advance, the recent technical damage, stronger US$ index and rising yields) the gold stocks … Continue reading

The trading month doesn’t always end on a Friday but when it does we like to take a look at the monthly charts. Generally, I prefer daily and weekly charts because they have more data points. However, monthly charts carry more significance than weekly charts which carry more significance than daily charts. You get the … Continue reading

Gold and gold stocks bounced to end the week thanks to an oversold condition coupled with a softer than expected jobs report which likely delays Fed action until December. At one point this past week the market had priced in a 64% chance of a single rate hike by December and a 42% chance of … Continue reading

Last week we projected 5% to 10% downside in the gold stocks. Well, not to butter my own bread but GDX and GDXJ both lost 9% on the week. That being said, I believed that the weakness would be limited and miners could rebound to new highs in September. While that possibility remains, there is … Continue reading