Editorials

The precious metals sector has reached the upside targets we’ve written about since the start of 2017. Gold has touched almost $1250/oz ($1246/oz high) while GDXJ exceeded our $41 target and GDX nearly reached $26. The glass half empty case is the sector is now at strong resistance levels and any immediate upside will be … Continue reading

Gold has underperformed both in nominal and real terms. Last week it formed a bearish reversal in nominal terms and against foreign currencies. However, the good news for bulls is the US Dollar Index lost support at 100, due to the Trump administration’s tough talk against Germany (and the Euro). Couple that with no movement … Continue reading

As Gold and gold mining stocks approach strong resistance, we wonder if the outcome will be a sharp selloff or a period of bullish consolidation. While there are a handful of things we can examine (sentiment, momentum, relative strength, etc), today we will focus on Gold and its relative strength against two key markets. How … Continue reading

Gold and Gold stocks have rallied as expected and the consolidation in the miners in recent days looks bullish. GDX and GDXJ have digested the recent recovery quite well as Gold is testing resistance around $1200/oz. While the price action portends to more gains so does the breadth in the miners as well as short-term … Continue reading

Although we expected a rally in the gold mining sector, we have been surprised by its strength and recent buying pressure. From the lowest ticks, Gold has rallied less than 6% but GDX has gained 25% and GDXJ has soared 36%. This rebound adds to the evidence that the gold stocks are leading the metal. … Continue reading

Gold has suffered recently in the wake of higher real interest rates while the US Dollar, thanks to higher yields has reached a 14-year high. Stronger real rates hurt Gold but so does a stronger US Dollar, which remains the dominant global currency. In addition to falling real interest rates Gold likely needs the US … Continue reading

Last week we wrote that Gold was broken but noted the oversold condition in the precious metals sector as well as the relative strength in the gold stocks. At one moment last week, the gold stocks were trading above where they were in mid-November when Gold was trading some $60/oz higher. In other words, Gold … Continue reading

Last week we wrote that the 2016 bull market in Gold and gold stocks had gone off course. It had moved too far out of the historical boundaries to remain a bull market. There was also other evidence of such including but not limited to rising real yields. Gold’s last hope was to hold $1200-$1210 … Continue reading

While we expected additional weakness in Gold and gold stocks (weeks ago) we did not quite expect the kind of selling the sector experienced in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. The market reacted by sending bond yields dramatically higher which resulted in stronger real interest rates, which is fundamentally negative for precious metals. … Continue reading

The gold stocks continue to correct their epic +150% rebound that began in January and ran into the summer. Last week it was the poor relative strength in the miners that hinted the correction had more to go in both time and price. This week, it was the miners failure at a confluence of resistance, … Continue reading