Expected Returns

I’ve been consistently warning that U.S.government bonds will eventually implode. Using history as a guide, I know that when the sell-off in bonds begins, it will be very swift. The magnitude of panics are inversely correlated to the degree in which investors are deluded. Some of the most ignorant comments I’ve ever heard have been on … Continue reading

Gold is taking us on a roller coaster ride that I’m sure has many people concerned. However, long-term gold bulls can rest assured that this is not the type of price action typical of bubbles; when bubbles pop, they don’t retest highs for many, many years. Gold on the other hand is making new highs, … Continue reading

Economic data is coming in mixed today. While initials jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since July 2008, median home prices fell to a 7-year low. With such conflicting data, the question naturally arises: Will the U.S.  economy recover, especially without real estate leading the way? To get a glimpse of what awaits us, we should turn to Europe. Ireland … Continue reading

I want to take the time to talk about trading these moves in gold, especially since it appears a lot of people are confused by the gold market right now. First and foremost, you want to be on the right side of the trade. I suspect most of you are long gold or you wouldn’t be reading … Continue reading

These are the kind of days I live for as an investor since I love volatility, fear, and general market confusion. I’ve been waiting for weakness to cover my shorts and buy on dips. Well here we go, I am slowly buying the dips here in stocks. As for gold, I feel obligated to add a small position … Continue reading

Investing fascinates me because people can have the exact same data and come to completely different conclusions. We can look at the same charts and trade in different directions. Ultimately trading is a zero sum game: when one person loses 50% on the short side, another person makes 50% on the long side. Based on the profits being … Continue reading

The outright melt up in most assets has emboldened investors to step in on the long side (finally). I’ve been saying recently that I don’t think it’s the best time to buy either stocks or gold. Objectively speaking, there is way too much bullishness in both asset classes. In fact, I’ve been trying to prepare … Continue reading

As gold hits another high this morning, allow me to reiterate that you are witnessing something historic. This is the kind of move that most people will misplay and learn to regret. The hardest thing to do right now as a gold investor is to hold, so crudely, this is exactly what you should be … Continue reading

Currency wars are just one more piece to the ever-evolving puzzle called the global debt crisis. The rhetoric surrounding competitive currency devaluations- centered primarily in the U.S.-  has intensified in recent months. It appears  our leaders are coming to grips with the fact that there is only one way out of this crisis, and that is via … Continue reading

Since I am often asked by people how to invest in this gold bull market, I wanted to take some time to address these questions in a post. My main focus as an investor isn’t worrying about choosing between gold juniors, gold seniors, physical gold, or other minor aspects of gold investing. My primary concern is … Continue reading