Gary Tanashian

Last week the Fed treated us to a whipsaw as market perceptions apparently were not in line with the FOMC policy statement, which was basically a punt.  Then the very next day the Fed’s James Bullard  jawboned the media about a possible October Federal Reserve tapering.  Hence, a letter writer was left with images of … Continue reading

In the current policy and media stoked market environment, anything is possible.  It’s  the wonderful, magical world of hands-on policy making.  5 years after the financial crisis, but still not enjoying a ramping economy like the good old (and long gone) days of the last great secular bull market (RIP 2000)?  Just sit back, relax … Continue reading

The media love to get a hold of buzz words and then give them a spin and a life all their own.  Recent examples were the mainstream media’s presentation of ‘Operation Twist’ – which was simply an official yield curve manipulation designed to sanitize and dampen inflationary signals – as an inflationary operation, and the … Continue reading

In light of today’s positive economic data out of China, I thought I would reproduce a segment from NFTRH 255 (9.8.13) that speculated upon the possibility of a new up cycle in inflation expectations based in large part on China and its credit growth cycle (on which central planners have announced a planned clampdown).  China … Continue reading

US manufacturing expanded again last month as July’s strong pace was maintained in August at 55%+.  New orders increased at a healthy rate of nearly 5%, but right along with this prices also increased by 5%. This is the threat to the Goldilocks backdrop that has supported policy makers’ ability to continue the inflation because … Continue reading

The destruction culminating in late June in the gold price brought out the usual suspects to school us ever since about why gold is all done as a worthy investment in an era of economic revival, compliments of heroic policy making by Ben Bernanke and Associates.  Perceptions are now fully cemented toward policy maker control … Continue reading

The commodity complex is famous for a sort of ‘Whack-a-Mole’ quality to it.  Do you remember back in the go-go days when it was NatGas (2005)?  Uranium (2007)?  Crude Oil (2008) and then a cluster of Copper (2011), Grains (2011) and Silver (2011)? Well today none of them are doing much.  Oil went up but … Continue reading

We have used the ‘continuum’ (monthly chart of the 30 year yield) for years now to define tops in inflation expectations (red arrows at or around the EMA 100) and tops in deflationary fears (green arrows). 30 yr yield & 30 yr – 2 yr spread With the help of a MACD cross over (not … Continue reading

Yesterday was an impulsive looking move and something of a statement in itself.  But now technically, the metals and miners need to gather themselves (after a potential pullback on profit taking) and make a real statement. Yesterday was the booster stage (gap up), and another leg up from here would give the precious metals complex … Continue reading

[ed: ‘Risk Off’ might seem obvious this morning, but NFTRH has been highlighting acute risk in the US stock market since leading indicators – including a sentiment extreme exactly opposite to the contrarian bullish extreme of 1 year ago – flashed warning signals weeks ago.  From NFTRH 244′s opening segment… I don’t know how to put it … Continue reading

The following is the opening segment to this week’s premium letter, NFTRH 242.  The balance of #242 went on to discuss the technical status of US and global stock markets, key commodities, the current status of ‘inflation expectations’, precious metals and currencies; all in detail. Taper to Carry Last week we introduced the theoretical ‘taper to … Continue reading

I read a piece this morning by Josh Brown, the Reformed Broker, in which he destroys the 1999 comparison for the stock market.  He makes some excellent points about why the stock market is not only not over valued compared to 1999, but is actually a bargain.  You should read it because we should all be … Continue reading