Editorials

Who is not expecting a correction in precious metals right now?   It’s always the smart, sensible, but knee-jerk posture following a rebound that follows a bear market.   I even wrote about potential downside targets when the sector hit resistance roughly six weeks ago.   But the reality is that Gold and gold … Continue reading

In our last article, we noted that Gold is outperforming everything.    It is trending higher and positioned above rising 200-day moving averages when charted against the stock market, bond market, commodities, and foreign currencies. Yesterday it closed at a fresh two-year high against the conventional 60/40 portfolio.   To be sure, on a technical … Continue reading

Gold’s performance in real terms is important for two reasons.   First and foremost, it tends to be a leading indicator of the Gold price. That is instructive when Gold is rebounding but has yet to gain real traction or momentum.    Secondly, when Gold strengthens in real terms, it indicates mining margins are … Continue reading

Real Interest rates are the key driver for precious metals. Specifically, declining real interest rates and negative real interest rates drive precious metals higher.   However, there is a second driver that speaks to the secular trend and over the years I have learned this is as important as the trend in real interest … Continue reading

Precious Metals traded up to the resistance levels we noted a week ago but reversed lower to start the week.    Precious metals have rebounded with the broader market. There needs to be a transition in which they lead and perform in real terms. But I digress.    Let’s look at the key levels … Continue reading

Precious Metals have enjoyed their best rally since the spring but are approaching significant resistance levels.   After trading as high as $1791, Gold has fallen back to $1740.   The weekly and monthly charts show stiff resistance in the $1780 to $1820 zone.   The daily chart below shows a confluence of resistance … Continue reading

The evidence argues that the cyclical bear market in precious metals is likely over.   We will only know for certain once prices are much higher. Such is the reality of markets. Therefore we need to rely on the weight of the evidence.   The evidence was already building even before prices turned. We noted … Continue reading

Last week I wrote about the numerous positive divergences building in precious metals. On a near-term basis, Gold looks the worst of the group. But that can be a good thing.   Taking a step back, today I am writing about the ingredients for major bottoms in Gold and how the present compares to … Continue reading

Positive divergences within a downtrend are important because they can precede a bottom and trend reversal. Our most recent editorial noted some positive divergences in the gold market.   One should never make much of one trading day, but the ongoing positive divergences in the precious metals sector and Friday’s action raise the odds … Continue reading

Although precious metals have rebounded, some consternation remains that they could be headed much lower before a major bottom.   However, when one considers the fundamental backdrop, one will realize that a major turn is soon at hand.   At the end of September, the S&P 500 closed below its 40-month moving average. Over the … Continue reading