Toby Connor

Market Update

For months and months I’ve been warning investors that the dollar was going to come under extreme pressure sometime this year. I expected it to probably happen in the spring. Many people thought I was nuts. They were sure it was the Euro that would collapse, despite the fact that the EU is doing everything they can to protect their currency while Bernanke is doing everything he can to destroy ours.

The gold bull is now on the verge of launching the most spectacular up leg of this 10 year bull market. This spring we should see the final parabolic rally of the massive C-wave advance that began in April `09 with a test of the 1980 high at $860. First off let me explain gold’s … Continue reading

The dollar is now poised on the edge of the abyss.

It has been my contention all along that the Fed would print until something breaks. Once that break occurs we will enter the next leg down in the secular bear market. This time I don’t expect it to be the credit markets, although we will almost certainly have trouble in the municipal and state bond markets. Some may even default.

Seems like everyone has now jumped back on the energy band wagon.To be precise energy, solar’s, uranium and rare earths. I hear it constantly in the media. However if something has gone up long enough and far enough to garner the attention of the media it’s usually closer to a top than a bottom. For … Continue reading

It’s almost impossible to find anyone who is long term bearish on the stock market or economy at this time.

Lately we’ve been hearing a lot of talk about Kondratieff cycles, Elliot Wave super cycle, end of the world, deflation, deflation, deflation. What the deflationists fail to acknowledge is that in a purely fiat monetary system deflation is a choice not an inevitability. To put it in simple terms, if a government is willing to sacrifice … Continue reading

The move to a lower low on Friday puts the odds squarely in the “one more leg down” camp. I’ve noticed a couple of patterns emerging in the stock market. The first one is the tendency for a market cycle to bottom on an anticipated news event. The last two intermediate cycle lows bottomed on … Continue reading

We now have some follow through to Thursday’s swing low and unlike the last two times, this one is not taking the shape of a bear flag. As I explained last week in the nightly reports, and this week on the blog in “Hoping for a Break” , I was looking for smart money to run … Continue reading

Stocks: I expect, barring some kind a catastrophe, next week should be another good week for the market. The recent minor pullback has worked off the short term overbought conditions and in the process formed a small bull flag. As long as we continue to get these minor corrective moves it will serve to keep … Continue reading

I want to discuss something that came up on the blog Friday. An anonymous poster hinted that we were going to see more gold weakness in the days ahead because big money was having to sell  positions. Folks, big smart money traders don’t sell into weakness. These kind of investors don’t think like the typical retail investor … Continue reading