Toby Connor

The move to a lower low on Friday puts the odds squarely in the “one more leg down” camp. I’ve noticed a couple of patterns emerging in the stock market. The first one is the tendency for a market cycle to bottom on an anticipated news event. The last two intermediate cycle lows bottomed on … Continue reading

We now have some follow through to Thursday’s swing low and unlike the last two times, this one is not taking the shape of a bear flag. As I explained last week in the nightly reports, and this week on the blog in “Hoping for a Break” , I was looking for smart money to run … Continue reading

Stocks: I expect, barring some kind a catastrophe, next week should be another good week for the market. The recent minor pullback has worked off the short term overbought conditions and in the process formed a small bull flag. As long as we continue to get these minor corrective moves it will serve to keep … Continue reading

I want to discuss something that came up on the blog Friday. An anonymous poster hinted that we were going to see more gold weakness in the days ahead because big money was having to sell  positions. Folks, big smart money traders don’t sell into weakness. These kind of investors don’t think like the typical retail investor … Continue reading

We continue to hear pundits describe gold as a bubble. Certainly it will turn into a bubble before this is all over but we are hardly in the bubble stage yet. In order for a bubble to form you need the public to come into an asset class. The public is pretty dim and it … Continue reading

I know this is hard to do, especially when one is weathering draw downs. And of course a liberal dose of gloating from the bears during these times doesn’t help either. But let’s not get sidetracked by the little things and let’s face it, the haters are going to show up every time gold corrects. … Continue reading

Gold’s break out to new highs has very bullish connotations going forward. It puts the odds squarely in favor of a C-wave continuation. I will go over expectations and cyclical structure for a second leg of the C-wave in tonight’s report for subscribers. For those of you thinking about getting side tracked by a meaningless … Continue reading

By Toby Connor, GoldScents History says we should test the lows at some point in the next few weeks. The fact that we ended well off the lows does muddy the picture at bit, as most “crash” days have ended at or close to the lows of the day. So perhaps this time will be … Continue reading

I’m going to start off by stating that I don’t think Bernanke is going to “get away” with the insane monetary policy he’s chosen. Printing trillions of dollars, cutting rates to zero, trying to manipulate the bond market and generally tampering with the natural market forces is going to have consequences. There is a price that … Continue reading

On the Brink of an Asset Explosion, II Let me start off by saying the market should be correcting. Sentiment has reached ridiculous bullish extremes, the kind of extremes that led to the January /February correction. That correction separated the second leg of the bull from the third. But let’s face it, sentiment has been … Continue reading