Editorials

Regular readers by now are familiar with Gold’s fundamental drivers and the influence of the stock market.    Falling and or negative real interest rates are the fundamental driver for Gold and are usually a byproduct of a weak stock market and economic recession.    However, today I want to focus on the larger … Continue reading

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the potential for a rally in gold stocks. They were extremely oversold, trading at support, and the selling was abating.    Precious Metals bottomed before the Fed decision last week and jumped higher following the decision. This week they have retreated a bit thanks to Fed jawboning.    … Continue reading

I have often written about the importance of the Gold to S&P 500 ratio.   Gold (and gold stocks and Silver) has never been in a real, sustained bull market without outperforming the stock market.   Sure, there have been strong cyclical moves (from 1985 to 1987 and August 2018 to August 2020), but … Continue reading

The gold stocks are extremely oversold. That’s obvious.   However, selling pressure has waned since the end of June. The daily candles have been mild, suggesting less and less distribution.   The last three days mark three consecutive days of accumulation candles for the first time in months.   These candles come amidst an … Continue reading

Gold and Gold stocks have fallen to levels from which we should see excellent returns over the next 12 months and potentially spectacular over the long term. However, that does not mean a bottom and reversal are imminent.    Concerning the gold stocks, the indicators are extremely oversold and have reached levels similar to … Continue reading

Gold stocks have broken down technically, but they are extremely oversold.   Let’s start with GDXJ, which is rebounding today after testing support at $32.   The chart below plots GDXJ along with four breadth indicators, including new 52-week lows and a 50-day rate of change. The blue lines mark where the percentage of … Continue reading

Many of us in the gold community fear bear markets because they can inflict some damage to gold and silver stocks. That is a fair concern even though some go overboard.   That aside, it’s vital to understand that these bear markets are the catalyst for big moves and bull markets in Gold.   … Continue reading

Gold and gold stocks have been a disappointment over the last two years as they failed to perform amid rising inflation.    With the Fed hiking rates, real yields rising, and the economy likely entering a recession, sentiment is the polar opposite of two years ago. Some are ready to throw in the towel. … Continue reading

If you follow my work, you know I love studying market history and employing analogs. Market moves of the past can inform the future.   It has been a while since I’ve updated the analogs for Gold.   Gold was tracking the average of all bull market corrections and the ensuing rebounds until the … Continue reading

I have been writing about this for over five years.   For Gold to perform well, it has to outperform the stock market. In recent years, that has happened but only occasionally and not consistently.    In a much broader sense, Gold’s best moves and real bull markets occur when equities are in a secular … Continue reading