Sentiment

We contrarians cringe when sentiment gets too frothy, gold is pumped on CNBC and a respectable titan of the conventional investment world speaks of gold as an “asset class”. We cringe, but also realize that at some point in the process, the public is gonna go all-in. At least that’s the script that is usually … Continue reading

Commentary: Contrarian analysis remains upbeat about gold’s prospects…

The following is a brief snippet of Wednesday’s 16-page update. Go here for more information on our service and a free 14-day no risk trial. Gold Gold remains on track (as far as our template).  Here is the potential bullish outcome.  The longer Gold holds above $1160 and that trendline, the more likely the bullish … Continue reading

It is a few days old but relevant and somewhat actionable. The piece is here: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-bugs-are-cheerfully-rampant-2010-05-17 Quoting the important parts: More clearly encouraging are the sentiment measures. Both MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for gold and the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index actually went down last week — MarketVane by 3 points to 74% and the HGNSI … Continue reading

The public just got a little bit interested again on Friday. This is a good sign. I now follow the Rydex Precious Metals Fund as a proxy for retail investor interest/sentiment in the Gold sector. You can too if you want. The total assets in the fund fluctuate wildly, with assets flowing out of the … Continue reading

Commodity Online polled over 20,000 respondents on the near-term prognosis for Gold. Here are some snippets from the piece:

Over the last few weeks we’ve been writing about potential macroeconomic developments, which will drive Gold in the near term and in the years ahead. We thought we’d take a break from that and focus on what we enjoy most: analyzing technicals and sentiment….

By William Patalon III, Executive Editor, Money Morning Is America getting in too deep? According to a new estimate by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), if the United States continues along its current path, U.S. public debt will reach 90% of the nation’s economic output by 2020. Given that federal debt has already zoomed to … Continue reading

A look at the ISE put/call ratio for GLD and public opinion on Gold….

The CFTC’s latest weekly Commitment of Traders report shows that after a brief respite, potentially dictated by Goldman’s very temporary euro bullishness, the euro is back to having a record number of non-commercial futures-only positions at -74,917. This is a more than 50% increase from last week’s -46,341. As a reminder the prior euro net short record was -74,551 two weeks ago…

This is one of those things that doesn’t matter as much as people think. Watching the daily financial news, scanning for clues, looking for justification. One of the great secrets of speculating/investing is the fact that the daily news item chosen to “explain” a move higher is not that important.

…I look at many things to track sentiment. In terms of Gold we have COTs and various sentiment surveys among other things. The ISE put-call data has been the most reliable…